Decision time is coming soon in Dallas. Tony Romo reportedly will be ready to return in a few weeks, but the Cowboys have been successful with rookie Dak Prescott at quarterback.
Further complicating the decision is Romo’s contract, which is nothing short of a nightmare for the Cowboys.
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Dallas has limited options for the future with regards to Romo’s deal. If the 36-year-old is relegated to backup, the Cowboys will have the most expensive QB in the history of the NFL (cap charges above $20 million in 2016 and 2017) sitting on the bench.
If the team is concerned with winning, though, it's a decision it needs to make.
Romo’s contract is arguably the most leveraged in the NFL. Because of cap issues in the past, Dallas has consistently converted base salary into signing bonus money that prorates over the term of the deal. Dallas obtained short-term salary cap relief by making those moves but deferred large salary charges to the future.
The Cowboys have little left they can do with Romo’s contract to help the cap. Whether he’s cut or traded, the cap charge will be the same next year — $19.6 million, the cost of all those contract restructures. That number will be a hard pill to swallow, and it can cloud good judgment.
But Dallas needs to look past that number and realize the benefits of moving on from Romo. The Cowboys need to plan for the long term, and carrying Romo at a $24.7 million cap charge just to have him next year does nothing for the team. They would still carry an $8.9 million charge if he’s released in 2018, so it’s better to get it all out of the way now.
In fact, if a QB-desperate team is willing to trade for Romo next week, Dallas should consider it … at least for financial purposes. Here’s a look at how much cap space Dallas will use under three scenarios: trade Romo this year, trade/cut him in 2017 or keep him until 2018.
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The bottom line: Dallas saves anywhere from $14 million to $19 million by moving on from Romo. For a team that currently projects to have the worst cap situation in 2017, that would seem like a smart move despite the dead money total staring it in the face.
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Generally, when former stars are benched, they look to play elsewhere. Brett Favre left for New York when Green Bay told him Aaron Rodgers was the starter. Carson Palmer asked for a trade and then retired when the Bengals were making the move to Andy Dalton. Drew Bledsoe wanted out when Tom Brady was given the job in New England. Unless Romo is ready to retire, it’s unlikely he will embrace a backup role when he knows there are other opportunities.
Prescott is 23 and playing on his rookie contract, which pays him pennies compared to a veteran starter. Dallas will get the benefit of that contract for the next three years. That type of benefit often helps teams win Super Bowls.
History is filled with examples of teams making similar financial decisions. The Colts took a $16 million cap charge to release Peyton Manning when they had the opportunity to draft Andrew Luck. The Patriots were just one year removed from signing Bledsoe to a lucrative extension when they decided to keep him on the bench for Brady.
The Cowboys should study that Brady situation, because there are many similarities. Brady only saw the field because of a fluke play on which Bledsoe was injured. Prescott needed two injuries — one to Romo and the other to backup Kellen Moore — to get his chance.
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Dak Prescott (Getty Images)
The Patriots didn’t worry about the short term when it came to Brady and Bledsoe. It’s easy to forget, but the Brady of 2001 was nowhere near the Hall of Fame talent he is today. He wasn’t considered the next Dan Marino. Brady threw for 2,800 yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions — pretty close to what Bledsoe did the year before. The Patriots received virtually equal QB performance at a fraction of the cost.
Similarly, Prescott is on course to challenge the yardage totals of a healthy Romo. Plus, going back to the older player can make it more difficult for the team to adjust in-season and can create controversies that extend beyond the year.
So New England ended that controversy as soon as Bledsoe was healthy by putting him on the bench. That decision allowed New England to have the resources to win another Super Bowl in 2003 before Brady truly became a special talent by 2004 — and that 2004 team was arguably the best of the decade, in part because of the cap room the team saved.
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Dallas should handle its situation the same way. The Cowboys have an opportunity to do something nobody thought was possible before the season began. If they want to hang on to Romo for the balance of this year just in case the clock strikes midnight on Prescott, they can opt for that, and it won’t kill them.
But if they want to take advantage of the situation, they have to turn the page on the Romo era and move on before next season.