As the 2017 season approaches, NFL observers wonder which team will be the next to move from an also-ran to a playoff contender and, ultimately, a Super Bowl team behind its star quarterback.
Atlanta and Matt Ryan last year followed Carolina and Cam Newton. A few years back, it was Seattle and Russell Wilson. In 2017, Oakland or Dallas with Derek Carr and Dak Prescott, respectively, would not shock anybody.
But Tampa Bay and/or Tennessee would qualify as a surprise. And those teams, with Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota leading the way, are my top two candidates to take the next step after 9-7 seasons in 2016.
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Both the Buccaneers and Titans have the ingredient of a young, ascending quarterback on the path to elite status. Winston and Mariota, of course, will always be tied at the hip as Heisman Trophy winners in successive years and the top two picks of the 2015 draft. Both are motivated to elevate their teams and set themselves up to eventually join the $25 million-plus per year club of franchise passers.
Their teams selected them after dreadful 2-14 seasons in 2014. And speaking of dreadful, the Titans last made the postseason in 2008 and haven't won a playoff game since 2003. The Buccaneers’ most recent playoff berth came in 2007, and their last postseason win was their 2002 Super Bowl victory over the Raiders.
Given last year's winning records, expectations have risen dramatically in the Tampa Bay and Nashville markets. Fans and media — along with the team owners — are anticipating the next step to be a trip to the playoffs. Then the Super Bowl will become the target.
But the best path to the Super Bowl usually starts with a division title, and that road clearly is tougher for the Buccaneers in the NFC South than it is for the Titans in the AFC South.
2017 PICKS: AFC South | NFC South
The Bucs in their division have to dethrone the defending NFC champion Falcons, and the Panthers and Saints also are capable of rising to the top. The NFC South also has the league's the best quartet of quarterbacks in Ryan, Newton, Winston and Drew Brees.
Tampa Bay's passing offense should be outstanding, as Winston will be throwing to Pro Bowl receiver Mike Evans and newly acquired deep threat DeSean Jackson along with the top tight end in the 2017 draft, O.J. Howard. But Winston, who threw for 4,090 yards and 28 touchdowns last year, needs to cut down on his 18 interceptions.
The Bucs also need improvement in their running game, which ranked No. 24 in the NFL last year. That would start with Doug Martin’s return to his 1,402-yard form of 2015. His rushing total fell to 421 yards in 2016, as he missed seven games due to injury and the final game under an NFL substance abuse suspension that will carry over to the first three games this season. Jacquizz Rodgers was an effective substitute last year, so he'll likely carry the load early on.
Coach Dirk Koetter also needs his defense to step up against both the run and pass since Tampa Bay ranked a mediocre 22nd in each area last season. Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David will lead the way, and significant improvement will be needed from 2016 top pick Vernon Hargreaves, the corner who was targeted more than any NFL defensive back last season and allowed a 71 percent completion percentage.
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As for Tennessee, its path to a division title should be easier. A big reason the Titans are a popular pick to win the AFC South is their major upgrade in talent over the past two years. That starts with Mariota, and quarterback issues for the other teams in the division are major factors. Mariota is the second best quarterback in the division behind Andrew Luck, but the Colts QB is returning from shoulder surgery and will start training camp on the physically unable to perform list. The Colts have no chance if Luck is not healthy.
Houston's formidable defense should be even better if J.J. Watt returns successfully from his back problems. But the Texans’ quarterback will be either Tom Savage or rookie Deshaun Watson, so that's a question mark. In Jacksonville, Blake Bortles regressed last season and is on the hot seat. Coach Mike Mularkey's Titans need to improve on last season's 2-4 divisional record that included being swept by the Colts for the fifth straight year.
To do that, the Titans need a big year from Mariota, who returns from a fractured fibula that knocked him out of a playoff-costing loss to the Jags in Week 16. He now needs to stay healthy, as he's missed five games (plus the second half of that Jacksonville loss) over two seasons. He also must cut down on his fumbles.
But for Mariota, whose quarterback rating last year jumped to an impressive 95.6 based in part on his excellent TD to interception ratio (26:9), the prospects for success look even better after the offseason. The Titans drafted wide receiver Corey Davis fifth overall and signed Eric Decker to bolster a passing game that already had a Pro Bowl tight end in Delanie Walker and a solid receiver in Rishard Matthews.
The Titans quarterback is further supported by an excellent offensive line, with perhaps the NFL's best pair of bookend tackles in Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin, who clear the path for the one-two punch of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. They all contributed to the NFL's No. 3 rushing attack last season.
So Tennessee should be fine offensively. It's the defense, especially the secondary, that must improve the most for the Titans to become playoff bound. Coordinator Dick LeBeau's unit was fine against the run (No. 2) last year, but that was partially due to teams throwing often against the No. 30 pass defense, with the secondary being the biggest issue.
Free-agent signee Logan Ryan brings a Super Bowl pedigree from New England to the corner position, and Tennessee’s revamping of the secondary includes Adoree Jackson as its second of two first-round picks.
So keep an eye on these two teams. Ultimately for both the Buccaneers and Titans, as the case typically is in the quarterback-driven NFL, it will come down to Winston and Mariota.
If they continue to progress to the league's top echelon of quarterbacks, it bodes well for their teams to be playing postseason football in January.
If that happens, Super Bowl trips may well be on the horizon in the years to come.
Jeff Diamond is the former president of the Titans and the former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
