The Texans continue to be one of the most pleasant surprises in the NFL this season.
No one expected Houston to look like a playoff team in 2023 and yet, behind star rookie QB CJ Stroud, the Texans find themselves firmly in the hunt after a massive win over the Broncos in Week 13.
Denver was the hottest team in the AFC going into this contest, riding a five-game win streak to jolt back into the playoff picture after starting the season 1-5. Houston had won three of its last four games but had its momentum halted by the AFC South-leading Jaguars just last week.
Looking to get back on track, Stroud and the Texans came out and threw the first punch against the Broncos. Houston got out to a quick 10-0 lead and held a 13-3 advantage at the half. It led by as much as 13 points midway through the third quarter when Russell Wilson and Denver came storming back.
The Broncos had the ball trailing 22-17 with four minutes remaining and Wilson marched his troops into the red zone. Denver took a few shots at a game-winning score in the final minute, but Houston's defense held strong as safety Jimmie Ward picked off Wilson in the end zone on third and goal to seal it with 16 seconds left.
MORE: Breaking down Broncos' playoff chances after key loss vs. Texans
The victory leaps the Texans over the Broncos in the AFC wild card race and keeps them in striking distance from Jacksonville atop the AFC South. Here's how the AFC playoff picture looks after Houston's win over Denver.
Texans playoff picture
The win brings the Texans to a respectable 7-5 on the season but even though they jumped the Broncos (6-6), they're still on the outside looking in as of the end of the 1 p.m. ET slate in Week 13.
The Colts (7-5) hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Houston for the time being and scratched out an overtime win over the Titans in Week 13.
MORE: What Colts' playoff chances look like after OT win over Titans
Note: The Chiefs, Jaguars and Browns are all awaiting Week 13 results. The standings will be updated at the conclusion of those games.
| Rank | Team | Record | Tiebreaker |
| 1 | Dolphins* | 9-3 | Wins tiebreaker over BAL on AFC win pct. |
| 2 | Ravens* | 9-3 | — |
| 3 | Chiefs* | 8-3 | Wins tiebreaker over JAX on H2H win pct. |
| 4 | Jaguars* | 8-3 | — |
| 5 | Browns | 7-4 | — |
| 6 | Steelers | 7-5 | Wins tiebreaker over IND on win pct. in common games. Division tiebreak has IND over HOU. |
| 7 | Colts | 7-5 | Wins tiebreaker over HOU on H2H win pct. |
| — | Texans | 7-5 | |
| — | Broncos | 6-6 | Wins tiebreaker over BUF on H2H win pct. |
| — | Bills | 6-6 | — |
*Indicates division leaders
Depending on the results of the Browns game, this playoff picture could receive a shake-up. The Texans will also be rooting hard for the Bengals against the Jaguars on "Monday Night Football" as they still have a chance to clinch the playoffs by winning the AFC South.
AFC South prediction model
The Sporting News' Edward Sutelan's prediction model suggests the Texans will finish ahead of the Colts in the AFC South (and wild card) standings, giving them a 69.6 percent chance of making the playoffs.
However, the model does not have Houston covering enough ground to take the AFC South crown from the Jaguars.
| Team | xW-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | AFC% | SB% |
| Jaguars | 12-5 | 89.3% | 9.9% | 99.2% | 14.9% | 10.4% | 4.5% |
| Texans | 10-7 | 7.0% | 62.6% | 69.6% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Colts | 9-8 | 3.6% | 50.6% | 54.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Titans | 5-12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC wild card prediction model
Sutelan's prediction model has the Texans earning the second wild card spot in the AFC.
Houston will have a massive road game against the Colts in Week 18, and as it currently stands, the model projects that game could decide the last playoff spot in the conference.
| Team | xW-L | WC% | Playoff% |
| Browns | 10-7 | 63.5% | 70.4% |
| Texans | 10-7 | 62.6% | 69.6% |
| Steelers | 9-8 | 51.8% | 57.0% |
| Colts | 9-8 | 50.6% | 54.2% |
| Bills | 9-8 | 21.9% | 23.4% |
| Broncos | 8-9 | 11.8% | 11.9% |
| Chargers | 8-9 | 11.4% | 11.7% |
MORE: Updated 2024 NFL Draft order: Patriots close gap on Bears for No. 1 pick
Texans remaining schedule 2023
The Texans have five games remaining in the 2023 NFL season.
| Date | Week | Opponent | Time (ET) | TV channel |
| Dec. 10 | 14 | at Jets | 1 p.m. | CBS |
| Dec. 17 | 15 | at Titans | 1 p.m. | CBS |
| Dec. 24 | 16 | vs. Browns | 1 p.m. | CBS |
| Dec. 31 | 17 | vs. Titans | 1 p.m. | Fox |
| TBD | 18 | at Colts | TBD | TBD |
According to Tankathon, Houston has the seventh-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, only facing two teams with winning records.
It will travel to New York to take on the Jets' struggling offense in Week 14 and host the Browns in a game with heavy playoff implications in Week 16.
The Texans still have three AFC South games remaining — a home-and-home with the Titans in Weeks 15 and 17, along with an imperative season finale at Indianapolis to close the season.
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