Ezekiel Elliott spent much of the past six months in the discussion for the top spot in fantasy football rankings. But a contract dispute turned into a holdout, and as we move into late August, he still hasn't shown up at Cowboys' training camp. That leaves fantasy football owners everywhere wondering whether they should take Elliott or put him on their do not draft lists, as well as who's the Cowboys handcuff.
With so many safe options in the top-tier of RBs, Elliott becomes another potential chapter in the holdout playbook that Le'Veon Bell followed last season. Let's dive into how fantasy football owners should approach Elliott in 2019 drafts.
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How long will Ezekiel Elliott be out?
Elliott's holdout is different from Bell's last year and Melvin Gordon's this year. Unlike those two running backs, Elliott has two years remaining on his contract. That means the Bell move of sitting out the whole season and going into free agency wouldn't work for Zeke here because there would still be next season in Dallas to worry about.
There have been no real suggestions as to when Elliott might show up at the Cowboys' facilities and return to business as usual. He ended his vacation/training in Mexico and returned to Texas, but that doesn't really lead to any conclusions either.
For those afraid of getting involved in this situation, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has consistently made comments that suggest he won't give into Elliott's demands. He's said Super Bowl champs need more than a running back, and he recently added "'Zeke who?" to a question he was answering. This could all be some giant negotiating plan by Jones, but it's also not an encouraging look for those counting on Elliott. Depending on Elliott's conviction, this holdout could go on all season, though it would seem likely he will return at some point.
2019 STANDARD RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200
Ezekiel Elliott fantasy ranking and ADP
Earlier this offseason, we ranked Elliott as our No. 1 overall player. As the holdout has pushed onward, he's dropped out of that top spot because it's really hard to justify picking him over in-camp and ready-to-go Saquon Barkley. He hasn't seen his average draft position (ADP) drop too far, though, with Elliott going fourth in FantasyPros' composite ADP.
This means that in your average fantasy football draft, you'll see Barkley, Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey go off the board, in some order. Then, with every other football player on the planet a possible selection, the fourth drafter normally goes with Elliott. Everyone knows he's a star when he's on the field, so even after what Bell did last season, Elliott isn't considered untouchable. He's still been worth the risk to people trying to find the best player at an ever-so-slight discount.
For what it's worth, in the two mock drafts I took part in the second week of the preseason, Elliott went fourth in a standard league and fifth in a PPR league.
DRAFT STRATEGY AND RANKINGS TIERS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST
Ezekiel Elliott's Handcuff: Tony Pollard looms as a sleeper
The Cowboys signed Alfred Morris earlier in the summer, and he made sense as "Zeke insurance". Morris had played in Dallas before and has some "proven-veteran" appeal. Apparently, though, he's more of a mentor in the RB room than anything else, and it's Tony Pollard, the rookie from Memphis, who has the most to gain from an Elliott absence.
Pollard's more of an unknown than most rookie running backs, which already are the blind dart throw of fantasy football. At Memphis, Pollard was the backup. Workhorse Darrell Henderson, now with the Rams, dominated the touches, so Pollard had to work with scraps. The presence of Henderson didn't stifle Pollard on a per-play basis, as he averaged 6.8 yards per carry with the Tigers.
There's been a peculiar amount of positive buzz being put out by the Cowboys about Pollard in August, including from Jones himself. It probably serves as a negotiating tactic with Elliott, but it could also be genuine, as Pollard has looked good on the field, going for 42 yards on five carries in the second week of the preseason. While that's way too small a sample size to read into, Pollard went for at least nine yards on three of his five carries and gets to run behind our No. 1 offensive line in football.
2019 PPR RANKINGS:
Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Top 200
Will Ezekiel Elliott hold out all season?
When Bell was holding out last year, there were two in-season dates people cared about, only one of which applies to Elliott. The Steelers wanted to franchise tag Bell, which had a Week 10 deadline for reporting. Elliott is under contract, though, so that doesn't apply. The other notable date is the bye week. In the past, speculation always ramps up that inactive players will show up during the bye week.
The Cowboys have a Week 8 bye this season. That means if Elliott showed up then, he'd have missed seven games, almost half the season. That would be only one fewer game than Kareem Hunt is missing due to suspension.
FANTASY SLEEPERS:
8 QBs | 14 RBs | 11 WRs | 11 TEs | 6 D/STs | One from each team
Cowboys RB holdout precedent
Jones has owned the Cowboys since 1989, and in '93, he had a standoff with another famous running back, Emmitt Smith. Jones wouldn't cave for the whole preseason, and Smith eventually held out through the first two regular season games.
So, what happened? Dallas started the season 0-2. Jones gave Smith the money he wanted, and everyone was happy.
Jones has never wavered from being his own man, so maybe that lesson from 26 years ago is telling. If Elliott hasn't shown up by Week 1 and you've drafted him, your best bet may be the Cowboys getting off to a rough start.
SEASON PREVIEW PODCASTS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST
Do NFL holdouts affect performance?
In the last decade-plus, a number of high-profile running backs have held out, including Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, and Maurice Jones-Drew.
Three of those four were injured in the ensuing season after they returned. It's not easy to trace the missed training camp to injury (after all, Johnson had 416 carries the year prior), but with the resources NFL teams have now, it's probably possible for small nicks picked up on your own to get worse without perfect treatment. The one of that foursome who didn't get hurt was Chris Johnson, and he went on to have his worst season up to that point in his career.
In Elliott's case, it's hard to imagine that he'd hit a natural decline at 24 years of age, younger than all four of those players were. Adam Schefter also reported that Elliott is the lightest he's been since his rookie year. It's hard to say whether less weight is better or worse for risk of injury, but it'd be fair to be slightly concerned about that based on the precedent here.
Bell also provides an example from two seasons ago. He held out through the whole preseason and rejoined the Steelers on Sept. 1. He obviously wasn't affected, as he led the NFL with 406 touches in just 15 games.
Ezekiel Elliott's fantasy outlook
Like we said above, it would take a top-four pick in fantasy drafts if you're picking today to get Elliott. If the holdout continues, that will surely fall. Considering Zike hasn't dropped a ton throughout early draft season, though, he might not fall out of the first round until the eve of the regular season. Clearly, nto many people think he's actually going to hold out with two years left on his contract.
If you get Zeke, you certainly have to get Pollard so you avoid your first-round pick being a total waste. Right now, Pollard is going as the No. 58 running back off the board and No. 169 overall. In a 12-team league with 16 roster spots, that suggests you'd be able to use your last pick before kicker and defense on Pollard. Based on how Austin Ekeler has risen while Melvin Gordon has held out, Pollard is probably more likely to rise quickly than Elliott is to fall quickly, so it would probably be best to start thinking about Pollard as soon as you hit double-digit rounds -- or possibly even sooner.
The bright side of Pollard is how good he's looked and the rave reviews he's gotten in the preseason. You might actually get a good player with that insurance pick for Elliott. Of course, you aren't drafting Elliott fourth overall to be forced to use his insurance policy when you could've had Le'Veon Bell or DeAndre Hopkins instead. That's the risk you run with Elliott, who could reward you with the No. 1 RB season or never play a down. At his still super-high price, he might not be worth that risk.