The Saints reached the NFC championship game thanks in part to Michael Thomas' dominant effort in the divisional round. If the wide receiver produces something close to what he did against Philadelphia, New Orleans likely will reach Super Bowl 53.
Thomas' 12 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles did not even add up to his biggest game of the season. That came in November against the Rams, who happen to be the Saints' opponent Sunday.
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Back in Week 9, Thomas torched Los Angeles for 12 catches, 211 yards and a score on 15 targets, and a big reason behind the production was his owning of cornerback Marcus Peters. With top corner Aqib Talib injured for that matchup, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips chose to use shadow coverage on Thomas for much of the day.
That resulted in Peters being roasted by Thomas for seven catches, 146 yards and a TD on nine of those targets, according to Pro Football Focus.
Phillips has not called upon his corners to travel much otherwise this season. Last week against the Cowboys, Talib lined up on the left, and Peters was on the right. Mostly away from Dallas receiver Amari Cooper, Peters' shaky coverage helped Cowboys rookie Michael Gallup rack up six catches for 119 yards on nine targets.
The Saints like to move Thomas from side to side. Most of his dominance of Philadelphia came from the right, but back in November against Los Angeles, he did much of his damage from the left.
Thomas saw limited time in the slot this season, but he has remained a force in the middle, as he excels at running precise routes across the field to get open. (Thomas consistently burned the Eagles' zone coverage on deep inside routes.)
Peters, who tends to give too much cushion and scramble to make up ground afterward, still is not equipped to contain Thomas in the rematch. The question: Will Phillips turn to shadowing again for the first time since Week 9 with a healthy Talib?
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Saints coach Sean Payton already admitted quarterback Drew Brees intended to target Peters often in the first meeting, which contributed to a 45-35 victory. If Phillips does not flip his corners, you can bet Thomas will keep lining up on Peters' side.
Talib has had a strong season, but he's 32. Thomas is 25 and in his prime. Talib's size (6-1, 209 pounds) alone gives him a better chance than Peters (6-0, 195 pounds) has against Thomas (6-3, 212 pounds). Talib can use that size to be more physical at the line and try to jam Thomas' routes. But if Thomas still gets to where Brees wants him, he will end up beating Talib more often than not with his post-up ability and strong hands.
If the Rams lock Talib on Thomas, Peters will see a lot more of Ted Ginn Jr. The deep ball to Ginn was available for the Saints against the Eagles; they just didn't execute. On Brees' first pass of the game, he underthrew what would have been a long touchdown to Ginn that resulted an interception. The Saints then got a little gun-shy and decided to be more methodical and patient, something they could afford to do with Thomas getting open for multiple third-down conversions.
Ginn is faster than Gallup, and he comes with more playoff savvy. The Saints would be simply more aggressive throwing downfield to pick on Peters in a different way.
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As crazy as it sounds, the Rams need to force Brees to take deep shots. The high-percentage strikes to Thomas lead to long, defense-wearing scoring drives that also keep the Rams' offense off the field. When the Saints get into such a rhythm, their passing and running games both become unstoppable.
Peters needs to be covering No. 2 receivers. In this case, against the primary deep threat in Ginn, he can get help from the Rams' safeties over the top.
This does not mean Talib will have his performance of the season and shut down Thomas. But it gives the Rams their only chance to slow the Saints' passing game enough to win.
