The Patriots and Steelers meet in the AFC championship game Sunday (6:40 p.m. ET, CBS) in yet another clash between Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger.
Those two franchises haven’t met in the AFC championship game since 2004, but this matchup shouldn’t surprise anybody. Brady and Roethlisberger have 36 playoff wins. Alex Smith was the only other AFC quarterback with postseason wins entering the playoffs.
Now we have Patriots vs. Steelers. Again.
Next season, the Patriots and Steelers will be the favorites in the AFC. Again.
When will we see something else? That Patriots-Steelers dominance is so entrenched in the AFC that you start to wonder whether it’s unhealthy for the conference at large. Not that the Patriots or Steelers should — or will — care. It’s not their fault.
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We probably won’t see a different movie until either Brady and/or Roethlisberger retires or somebody else steps up in the AFC. Which one do you think will happen first?
Brady and Roethlisberger make up two-thirds of the three-part quarterback dominance along with Peyton Manning that has defined the AFC since 2002, when New England and Pittsburgh met in the AFC championship game. Brady — with help from Drew Bledsoe — led the Patriots to the first of six Super Bowl appearances through this run. Counting this season, one of those three quarterbacks represented the AFC in the Super Bowl now 14 of the last 16 years. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and Oakland’s Rich Gannon are the only other two AFC quarterbacks to start in a Super Bowl since Brady started that run.
So five quarterbacks have represented six teams — Manning took the Colts and Broncos to two Super Bowls each — and the other 10 franchises have been shut out. Manning is retired now, so Brady and Roethlisberger control the conference. Brady and/or Roethlisberger has played in the AFC championship in 14 of the last 16 seasons. That’s absurd.
Compare that to the NFC, where 11 different franchises and 12 different quarterbacks have started in the Super Bowl the past 15 seasons. Matt Ryan can add one to both totals if he leads the Falcons past the Packers and Aaron Rodgers, who is trying to join two-time Super Bowl contestants Eli Manning, Russell Wilson and Kurt Warner. Drew Brees and Cam Newton didn’t even make the playoffs this season. There are good quarterbacks in the NFC, and there is parity.
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The AFC can’t make that argument. When the playoff bracket came out, who didn’t have New England and Pittsburgh penciled in for this weekend?
There are two ways to look at that success.
It shows New England and Pittsburgh have without question the two best quarterbacks in the AFC, and they continue to get better with age. Brady, who turns 40 in August, threw just two interceptions and had his highest passer rating since 2007. Roethlisberger, who turns 35 in March, took a career-low 17 sacks in the regular season and has led the Steelers to eight straight victories. It’s a quarterback’s league, and these two franchises have Hall of Famers under center.
It also allows the Patriots and Steelers to overcome obstacles with almost too much ease. Brady served a four-game suspension this season. Roethlisberger missed two games and star running back Le'Veon Bell served a two-game suspension. None of that mattered.
New England and Pittsburgh are in the same place. After the season, another cycle of draft coverage, preseason podcasts, magazines and prognostications will follow. As long as Brady and Roethlisberger are under center, however, the Patriots and Steelers will be the leading Super Bowl 52 picks for the 2017 season.
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That’s great news — for New England and Pittsburgh.
What does that mean to the rest of the AFC? That’s the second half of the argument. If you’re a fan of any other AFC franchise, then this run hasn’t been fun at all. It has even created mistrust among those fan-bases.
New England’s impressive run has been sidetracked by the Spygate and Deflategate scandals, and that has generated countless conspiracy theories on both sides. The last time the Steelers and Patriots played in Foxborough there was a headset controversy. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell suspended Brady this year, but it didn't matter. The Patriots still are one step away from another Super Bowl.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, was involved in one of the ugliest playoff games of all time against Cincinnati last season, and this year’s playoff run has been marred by Bud Dupree’s hit on Dolphins QB Matt Moore and Joey Porter’s arrest (though charges were dropped) and a controversial finish against the Chiefs in the divisional playoffs. Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce called out the officials afterward, but that doesn’t matter. The Steelers are one step away from another Super Bowl.
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So who is going to step up in the AFC next year?
Kansas City came close in the divisional playoffs, but a holding call on a two-point conversion attempt ended its chances. The Chiefs have now lost in the divisional round to the Patriots and Steelers each of the past two seasons. Can Smith ever take Brady or Roethlisberger down? Kansas City fans will ask that question the entire offseason.
The Raiders appear to be that team for the foreseeable future as long as Derek Carr returns seamlessly from a broken leg. General manager Reggie McKenzie has built through the draft, and Oakland appeared ready to take its shot this season before Carr’s injury. That would be ironic on some levels considering New England’s run to some extent was launched by the “Tuck Rule” game against the Raiders on Jan. 19, 2002.
Where else could that challenge come from? The Ravens, traditionally the main challenger for New England and Pittsburgh, are 13-19 the past two seasons. The Colts, who appeared to be that team with Andrew Luck a few years ago, is 16-16 in the same stretch. Both teams have missed the playoffs each of the past two seasons.
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The Broncos and Texans have the defenses, but do they have the right quarterback? The Broncos will address that again in the offseason under new coach Vance Joseph while the Texans will try to build off Brock Osweiler’s first playoff win.
The Dolphins and Bengals have talent, but neither Ryan Tannehill nor Andy Dalton has won a playoff game. The Chargers have never given Philip Rivers enough to work with and are heading to Los Angeles. The Jets need a quarterback and the Bills are starting with a new coach. Again.
All of that is to say that for those who have Patriots or Steelers fatigue now, it might get worse before it gets better. Again, that’s not New England or Pittsburgh’s fault.
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They’ll play in another big game this weekend, just like they did in 2002. It could be a classic. The ratings will be great, and either Brady or Roethlisberger will get the chance to lead their team to a victory in Super Bowl 51. We’ve seen this a lot, maybe too much.
Brady and Roethlisberger will have 10 Super Bowl appearances and 16 conference championship appearances between them after this weekend. That’s literally a full regular season of conference championship games.
It makes you wonder how many full seasons it will be before we see something else.
Or whether next year we’ll be watching the same thing. Again.
