The Patriots have had an up-and-down season, to say the least. The team's offense hasn't been particularly effective and has, on occasion, made boneheaded plays that have cost the team potential wins against the Bengals and Raiders.
Even despite that, the Patriots enter Week 18 with a chance to make it to the postseason for the 19th time under Bill Belichick.
FiveThirtyEight gives New England a 33 percent chance to make the playoffs ahead of the NFL's final week of the season. That puts them second among the AFC teams battling for the conference's No. 7 seed.
| Team | % chance to be No. 7 seed |
| Dolphins | 42 |
| Patriots | 33 |
| Steelers | 21 |
| Jaguars | 4 |
But how exactly can the Patriots make the playoffs? Below is a full breakdown of New England's playoff chances as the Patriots look to stamp their ticket in Week 18.
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture for Week 18
Patriots playoff picture for Week 18
The Patriots (8-8) enter Week 18 with the inside track to the final wild-card spot in the AFC. They are currently the No. 7 seed and are in control of their destiny.
However, New England will face a tough test against a Bills team that has beaten the Patriots in five of their last six meetings. Still, even if they lose, they will have a path to the postseason. Here's a breakdown of how those paths look:
1. If the Patriots win, they are in
The Patriots would improve to 9-8 with a win. They own head-to-head tiebreakers over both the Dolphins and Steelers and would emerge victorious from a three-way tiebreaker because their division record is better than the Dolphins'.
So, the Patriots are in control of their destiny. They also have a couple of ways to sneak into the playoffs if they cannot beat the powerhouse Bills.
2. If the Patriots tie, the Steelers and Dolphins cannot win
In the unlikely event that the Patriots tie against the Bills to finish the season with an 8-8-1 record, they would still have a chance to make the postseason. They would just need both the Steelers and the Dolphins not to win.
A win by either Pittsburgh or Miami would allow those teams to finish the season with a 9-8 record, which would be better than that of New England should the Patriots tie. That said, the Patriots would still win the tiebreakers over the Steelers and Dolphins if they finish tied in the standings, so any combination of the two teams tying or losing would allow the Patriots into the postseason.
This remains unlikely to happen, but it is still possible.
3. If the Patriots lose, the Steelers and Dolphins must lose
The Patriots can still get into the postseason with a loss, but it's a tricky scenario that requires a lot of moving parts to come together.
The first part fell into place Saturday night when the Jaguars won the AFC South. The Jaguars would beat the Patriots in an AFC tiebreaker regardless of how many teams end up 8-9 record. But the Jaguars have won their division, so the wild-card race goes back to being a three-team affair.
If the Patriots lose, they would be 8-9. The only way for them to finish tied in the standings with the Steelers and Dolphins at that point would be for both Pittsburgh and Miami to lose. The Patriots would win the ensuing tiebreaker among three 8-9 teams.
So, the Patriots can get into the postseason without winning, but they would need a lot of help to make that happen in either instance. Thus, Bill Belichick will be hoping his team can take the easier path and win their way in.
