NFL cornerbacks and safeties are used to watching Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill run away from them on the field. Other NFL receivers are starting to get that same feeling.
Jefferson and Hill are pulling away from the rest of the field in terms of receiving yards this season, with Jefferson leading the way and Hill not far behind with only two games left in the 2022 season. There is no other receiver within 300 yards of either wideout.
The extra 17th game to the schedule has already made it a matter of time until new single-season stat records are set, but with the campaigns from Jefferson and Hill, it's beginning to feel like the two receivers could battle it out for the receiving yards record in 2022 and even challenge for reaching 2,000 receiving yards in a season, a feat never before accomplished.
As the two receivers continue to rack up the yardage, The Sporting News is tracking their stat totals and odds of both reaching the NFL single-season receiving mark and 2,000 yards.
WEEK 17 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Justin Jefferson stats 2022
Stats: 123 catches, 174 targets, 1,756 receiving yards, 8 touchdown receptions
Jefferson leads the NFL in receiving yards with 1,756, and in receptions with 123.
The third-year receiver has been the focal point of the Vikings' offense. The next closest receiver in both yards and receptions is Adam Thielen (67 catches for 692 yards) and the gap in both stat categories is monumental.
Still, this season has been filled with its ups and downs. Jefferson has four games this season in which he has been held to fewer than 50 receiving yards, including a three-catch, 14-yard performance against the Lions in Week 3. On the flip side, he's also had three games in which he has racked up more than 180 yards, including his second performance against Detroit, during which he caught 11 passes for 223 yards.
MORE: Projecting seeds & matchups for AFC, NFC playoffs in Week 15
However, Jefferson is always given plenty of chances to make things happen. He's had only four games where he's been targeted fewer than 11 times this season.
Perhaps what is the scariest aspect of Jefferson, however, is his age. He is still just 23 years old and has the most receiving yards of any player through their first three years (4,772; Randy Moss is second at 4,163) and he still has two games left in the 2022 season.
His gifted start to the year has Cris Carter already placing him at the top of Vikings' receiving legends.
didn’t think this would happen today…⁰⁰HOFer Cris Carter just ranked Justin Jefferson above him AND @RandyMoss in all-time @Vikings receivers 🤯🤯⁰⁰📺: @FanDuelTV | @heykayadams | @criscarter80 | @JJettas2 pic.twitter.com/wfMyUsAPAc
— Up & Adams (@UpAndAdamsShow) December 12, 2022
Justin Jefferson yards pace
There are a few different ways to look at a player's pace. The first is the easiest: Per game rate. Jefferson has 1,756 receiving yards in 15 games with two remaining. That would set his pace at 1,990 receiving yards, rounded up.
But there are better ways to figure out where he is likely to end up at the conclusion of the season. The Sporting News uses Jefferson's career stats and performances and simulates the remainder of the year 20,000 times to figure out his most likely outcomes.
Here are those results:
Based on the model's output, his most likely outcome is that he finishes somewhere in the 1,900s in receiving yards. His average receiving yards are 1,941, the mode is 1,954 and the median is 1,940. He has a 20.9 percent chance of reaching at least 2,000 receiving yards.
Should he reach the lowest of those ranges — 1,940 — that would mark the third-most receiving yards in a single season. He already has the seventh-most receiving yards in a single season with still two games left.
Tyreek Hill stats 2022
Stats: 113 catches, 158 targets, 1,632 receiving yards, 7 touchdown receptions
In his first season in Miami, Hill is having a career year. Through 15 games this season, he has recorded 1,632 receiving yards with 113 catches. During his previous six years with Kansas City, the most receiving yards he ever tallied in a season came in 2018, when he had 1,479. His season-high in receptions was 111, which he set a season ago. Both have been broken in Year 1 in Miami.
His 2022 campaign began on a torrid pace. Through his first nine games of the season, Hill had recorded 1,104 receiving yards, the most in the Super Bowl era and fourth-most all-time, per Stathead. Hill had a pair of quiet games after that Week 9 clash with the Bears, recording only 44 receiving yards in Week 10 and 85 yards in Week 12, but exploded against the 49ers for 146 in Week 13.
And his explosive performances have come frequently. So far this year, Hill has six games with at least 140 receiving yards. That is tied for the most such games through the first 14 weeks of the season in NFL history, according to Stathead.
MORE: Bills vs. Dolphins weather updates
Unlike Jefferson, Hill has not been the lone receiving star for Tua Tagovailoa. The second-leading receiver on the team is Jaylen Waddle, who has caught 67 passes for 1,260 yards.
Tyreek Hill yards pace
There are again a few different ways to look at his pace. First, his per-game rate would put him at 1,850 yards given his pace this season.
But with The Sporting News' model, it looks a bit different. Here's his array of outcomes based on 20,000 simulations.
The most likely outcome is that he falls somewhere in the 1,700s range. His average outcome is 1,789, the mode is 1,752 and the median is 1,777. He has a 0.3 percent chance of reaching 2,000 receiving yards.
Again, it might not be the gaudy number some might expect given his blazing start to the season, but if he hits 1,752, that would be the eighth-most receiving yards in a single season.
Most receiving yards in a NFL season
The distinction of most receiving yards in a season is held by Pro Football Hall of Fame receiver Calvin Johnson. Back in 2012, Johnson caught 122 passes for 1,964 receiving yards, setting a mark that has survived at least the next nine seasons. Somehow, he finished only tied for third in AP Offensive Player of the Year voting.
Jefferson and Hill have each, at times, had the edge on Johnson's pace during the season, but entering Week 17, Johnson had more yards (1,892) than either star receiver.
Of course, that 17th game adds an extra element to the chase. Jefferson and Hill will each have a Week 18 that Johnson did not have.
But that by no means guarantees Hill and Jefferson will pass Johnson. The Vikings might opt to rest their starters in the final week of the season since they have the division wrapped up, and might not be able to get higher than the No. 2 seed. The Dolphins might have a wild-card spot sealed by that point as well.
Still, it's worth looking at whether the two receivers have a chance. Here's where The Sporting News' models currently puts their odds of surpassing Johnson's 1,964 receiving yards.
Jefferson is increasingly likely to reach and possibly set the record as the season winds down. Jefferson would have to average 104.5 yards per game in order to reach Johnson. His best four-game stretch this season saw him average 128.3 yards per game and he is the overwhelming favorite for targets with Minnesota, which gives him a good chance.
Hill would need to average 166.5 receiving yards per game. His best four-game stretch this season saw him average 145 yards per game, but he also has more competition for targets with Waddle and it requires explosive performances against tough pass defenses like the Patriots and Jets to end the year.
The chase for Jefferson and Hill to reach Johnson's record is going to be one to watch as the rest of the season winds down.
