After last Sunday’s win over the Browns, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers took a moment to reflect upon how far his team has come since a disastrous 0-4 start.
"I didn't know 6-6 could feel that good," Rivers said in his postgame news conference.
He’s not the only one who should be experiencing that same emotion. Like the resurgent Chargers, other clubs in the .500 range aren't out of the playoff mix coming down the home stretch.
MORE: NFL playoff picture for Week 14
Since the league adopted its current division standings in 2002, at least one squad at 6-6 or worse through 12 games has reached the postseason. The same is assured again this season with Kansas City (6-6) clinging to a tiebreaker lead in the AFC West as Los Angeles (6-6) and Oakland (6-6) are closing fast.
Among the 28 franchises still in the postseason race, at least statistically, Atlanta (7-5) and six teams at .500 have the best chances of leapfrogging their way above squads currently slated for the playoffs based upon their records.
Here is my ranking of those clubs that are on the outside looking in based upon analysis and their remaining schedule.
1. Los Angeles Chargers (6-6)
Remaining opponent winning percentage: .458 (22-26 record)
Reason for optimism: A game-changing pass rush led by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. The duo has combined or more sacks (20) than the entire Tampa Bay defense (17). The Rivers-operated passing game is clicking, as well, with Keenan Allen catching 33 passes for 436 yards and four touchdowns in the past three games.
Reason for pessimism: The Chargers have a history of losing close games and committing special-teams gaffes that new coach Anthony Lynn is still trying to correct. Three kickers have combined to make a league-low 67 percent of their field goals, which doesn't inspire confidence during the most important part of the season.
Biggest remaining game: While the Chargers will likely remain alive until a Week 17 showdown with Oakland, Los Angeles would greatly boost its chances of winning the AFC West with a Week 15 victory in Kansas City. Doing so also would end a seven-game losing streak against the Chiefs.
If they fall short ...: Los Angeles would join a long list of franchises unable to overcome an 0-4 start to make the playoffs. The only team that ever has? The 1992 Chargers.
2. Atlanta Falcons (7-5)
Remaining opponent winning percentage: .625 (30-18)
Reason for optimism: A 14-9 loss to Minnesota on Sunday wasn't pretty offensively, but the Falcons have the kind of talent to get hot again quickly. Four division games to end the season also allow Atlanta to directly control its playoff fate.
Reason for pessimism: The Falcons face a rough remaining schedule. Home-and-away matchups against New Orleans (9-3) are sandwiched around a Monday night road game vs. Tampa Bay (4-8). The season finale is against visiting Carolina (8-4), which beat Atlanta earlier this season.
Biggest remaining game: In a conference where 10 wins might be needed for a wild-card spot, the Falcons probably need to upend the Saints at home Thursday night for their best chance of hitting that target.
If they fall short ...: Blame an early-season three-game losing streak that included home losses to Buffalo and Miami for putting Atlanta in a tough spot heading into December.
3. Detroit Lions (6-6)
Remaining opponent winning percentage: .375 (18-30)
Reason for optimism: No 6-6 or 7-5 team has an easier remaining schedule. Even coming off two straight losses, the Lions have a golden opportunity to get on track Sunday against slumping Tampa Bay (4-8) at Raymond James Stadium.
Reason for pessimism: It’s unknown whether the hand injury quarterback Matt Stafford suffered in last Sunday’s loss to Baltimore will affect his performance the remainder of the season. If he's not playing at a high level, the Lions have no shot at the playoffs because of flaws on defense and in the running game.
Biggest remaining game: With Chicago and Cincinnati on tap following Tampa, Detroit could have a decent shot at the NFC's second-wild card spot entering the season finale against visiting Green Bay.
If they fall short ...: The Lions will have wasted another season of Stafford in his prime by not having upgraded at running back or pass rush during the 2017 offseason.
4. Green Bay Packers (6-6)
Remaining opponent winning percentage: .500 (24-24)
Reason for optimism: Aaron Rodgers appears on track to return from his collarbone surgery in Week 15. The Packers should be 7-6 at that point if they beat Cleveland (0-12) on Sunday as expected.
Reason for pessimism: Rodgers is arguably the NFL's best quarterback, but even he might not be able to lift Green Bay past both Carolina (8-4) and Minnesota (10-2) in Weeks 15 and 16. The defense is hit-and-miss, and the running game has struggled to gain traction because of injuries.
Biggest remaining game: While the Panthers and Vikings are considered stronger opposition, the season finale at Detroit (6-6) may very well be a must-win for playoff tiebreaker purposes. The Lions can notch its fourth division win by dispatching Chicago (3-9) at home in Week 15. The Packers are currently 2-2 in the NFC and lost to Detroit earlier this season.
If they fall short ...: It will serve as a reminder that the Packers must get a sounder backup plan in place behind Rodgers to better insure the offense doesn't completely crash in his absence. Brett Hundley has barely proven functional while posting a 2-4 record as Green Bay's starter.
IYER: How Packers can make playoffs
5. Oakland Raiders (6-6)
Remaining opponent winning percentage: .583 (28-20)
Reason for optimism: Having posted season-highs in yards from scrimmage each of the past two games, running back Marshawn Lynch is getting hot at the right time for an offense that hasn't performed at the same high level as last season. John Pagano's promotion to coordinator in mid-November has resulted in improved play by Oakland’s defense.
Reason for pessimism: Oakland’s past four wins have come by one score or less against largely inferior opposition, which reflects how a team that entered the season with Super Bowl hype is just scraping by. The defense still isn't making enough big plays with just one interception through 12 games.
Biggest remaining game: Defeating the host Chiefs on Sunday would give Oakland a season sweep that could prove the difference in a tiebreaker scenario.
If they fall short ...: There will be plenty of blame to go around, from general manager Reggie McKenzie failing to adequately address problem areas on defense in the 2017 offseason to a coaching staff that hasn't gotten the best out of the talent on the roster.
6. Dallas Cowboys (6-6)
Remaining opponent winning percentage: .542 (26-22)
Reason for optimism: Star running back Ezekiel Elliott will be returning from his six-game domestic violence suspension in Week 16 against Seattle. Outside linebacker Sean Lee, who is the defense's lynchpin, is back Sunday against the Giants after missing the past three games with a strained hamstring.
Reason for pessimism: Matchups against the Giants and Eagles might not be as favorable as once projected. New York should receive a boost from this week's firing of coach Ben McAdoo and the return of Eli Manning to the starting lineup following the quarterback’s unwarranted benching last Sunday against Oakland. The best-case scenario for the Cowboys would have the Eagles securing the top playoff spot before their meeting so Philadelphia would be more likely to rest its starters. That may not happen now with Philadelphia’s loss to Seattle last Sunday helping Minnesota (10-2) move into the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Biggest remaining game: The Cowboys would lose head-to-head tiebreakers against Atlanta, Green Bay and the Los Angeles Rams after falling to those teams earlier this year. Dallas can't risk the same type of scenario by losing to the Seahawks.
If they fall short ...: Coach Jason Garrett and his offensive assistants will endure an offseason of criticism about failing to properly prepare for Elliott’s absence — provided Cowboys owner Jerry Jones keeps the staff intact for 2018.
IYER: How Cowboys can make playoffs
7. Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Remaining opponent winning percentage: .479 (23-25)
Reason for optimism: Buffalo plays Indianapolis (3-9) Sunday and Miami (5-7) twice in the final three weeks.
Reason for pessimism: A rematch with New England awaits in Week 16, which doesn't bode well considering how badly the Bills were overmatched at home in last Sunday’s 23-3 loss to the Patriots. Rookie quarterback Nate Peterman, who threw five first-half interceptions in his lone NFL start against the Chargers, will get thrown to the wolves again if Tyrod Taylor can't play through a bruised kneecap.
Biggest remaining game: It's unrealistic to expect Buffalo to win in New England, so sweeping the other three games is basically a necessity to remain in wild-card contention.
If they fall short ...: The Bills will have squandered a 5-2 start to their season to miss the playoffs for an 18th straight year.
Alex Marvez can be heard from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET Tuesday on SiriusXM NFL Radio.
