NFL playoff picture: How Bills, Chiefs or Bengals can clinch AFC's No. 1 seed, first-round bye

Vinnie Iyer

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NFL playoff picture: How Bills, Chiefs or Bengals can clinch AFC's No. 1 seed, first-round bye image

The Bills (12-3) will travel to play the Bengals (11-4) to close Week 18 of the 2022 NFL season on "Monday Night Football" (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). They both will be chasing the Chiefs (13-3), who won on Sunday, in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.

There's no doubt those are the three best teams in the conference and all have a good chance to end up winning Super Bowl 57. But only one can earn the coveted top spot that comes with home-field advantage and the lone bye.

Here's laying out the path for how each of the three teams can clinch the No. 1 seed:

MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture after Week 17

How Bills can clinch the AFC No. 1 seed

The Bills have control of the No. 1 seed. If they beat the Bengals on Monday night and the Patriots at home in Week 18, they will clinch.

The Bills hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs because they won at Kansas City in Week 6. But a loss to the Bengals would give the Chiefs control of No. 1 as the Bills would fall one game behind.

How Chiefs can clinch the AFC No. 1 seed

The Chiefs, after beating the Broncos at home on Sunday, need to beat the Raiders on Saturday and hope the Bills either lose to the Bengals or Patriots.

If the Bengals beat the Bills, then the Chiefs would just need to beat the Raiders to stay ahead of the Bengals.

MORE: Breaking down the AFC North standings after Ravens lose in Week 17

How Bengals can clinch the AFC No. 1 seed

The Bengals' first step is beating the Bills. That would also clinch a second consecutive AFC North title for Cincinnati over the Ravens (10-6).

If the Bengals and Bills are both 12-4 after Week 17, then the Bengals would have a real chance. They would also need to beat the Ravens at home in Week 18 and hope that the Chiefs lose to the Raiders.

The Bengals would earn the tiebreaker over the Bills with a win on Monday night. They already have that advantage over the Chiefs, whom they beat in Week 13 in Cincinnati.

If the Bengals are in a two- or three-way tie at 13-4 involving the Bills and/or Chiefs, they would steal the top seed in their quest to repeat as AFC champions.

Vinnie Iyer

Vinnie Iyer Photo

Vinnie Iyer, has been with TSN since 1999, not long after graduating from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. He has produced NFL content for more than 20 years, turning his attention to full-time writing in 2007. A native of St. Louis, Mo. but now a long-time resident of Charlotte, N.C. Vinnie’s top two professional sports teams are Cardinals and Blues, but he also carries purple pride for all things Northwestern Wildcats. He covers every aspect of the NFL for TSN including player evaluations, gambling and fantasy football, where he is a key contributor. Vinnie represents TSN as host of the “Locked On Fantasy Football” podcast on the Locked On network. Over his many years at TSN, he’s also written about MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, tennis, horse racing, film and television. His can’t-miss program remains “Jeopardy!”, where he was once a three-day champion and he is still avid about crossword puzzles and trivia games. When not watching sports or his favorite game show, Vinnie is probably watching a DC, Marvel or Star Wars-related TV or movie.