Weeks 1 and Week 2 brought some expected tough results for Sporting News' NFL weekly game picks against the spread. There's always plenty the unpredictable newness for most franchises, and this season was no exception.
The sample size has grown a little to help figure out what teams are and what teams will be in a given slate based on opponents. Week 3, in theory, should make things easier on the predictions, but that also means planning for more of the unpredictable.
Here's diving headfirst into another fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications.
MORE: Week 3 Power Rankings | Week 3 NFL picks
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
NFL picks against the spread for Week 3
Game of Midweek: Patriots at Jets (-6, 37.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
This is the other half of the AFC East division rivalry for TNF after the Bills ripped the Dolphins last week. The Jets got their first full-game Aaron Rodgers victory out of the way with their formula of running, defense, and a few timely pass plays. They should open things up a little more in the passing game with rising trust in the wide receivers and the Patriots likely focusing most on containing Breece Hall. The Jets' defense can rip into a compressed, non-diverse Jacoby Brissett-led offense.
Pick: Jets win 23-13 and cover the spread.
Game of the Week: Ravens (-1, 49 o/u) at Cowboys
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Ravens are the better all-around team and lost last week because of penalties and a few big situational mistakes. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and the versatile receiving corps can also cause problems playing to the Ravens' strengths while exploiting the Cowboys' weaknesses. The pressure vs. Dak Prescott will be the difference, as will be less dynamic running and receiving support.
Pick: Ravens win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Buccaneers (-6.5, 39.5 o/u) over Broncos
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Buccaneers are looking great defensively with surprising pass-rush and secondary production for Todd Bowles. They also are looking very comfortable in the passing game, with Baker Mayfield spreading the ball around for OC Liam Coen. Bo Nix will be crushed often on this long rookie road trip.
Pick: Buccaneers win 27-10 and cover the spread.
WEEK 3 FANTASY RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Upset of the Week: Chargers (+2.5, 35.5 o/u) at Steelers
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chargers have become a tough road team already with Jim Harbaugh. Their offensive line is acing things in run blocking and keeping a banged-up Justin Herbert clean. That is key against the Steelers' pass rush, and the Steelers' run defense will be attacked enough. Herbert will protect the ball and himself better than Justin Fields as the Chargers keep up their momentum toward at least an AFC wild-card berth.
Pick: Chargers win 20-17.
Texans (-2.5, 45 o/u) at Vikings
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Texans and Vikings traded some pass-rush pop in the offseason with Danielle Hunter and Jonathan Greenard swapping places. These defenses are nasty and can get around everywhere to go after Sam Darnold and C.J. Stroud, neither of whom will benefit from good running game balance. In an ugly game, take the better QB with better, healthier weapons to make the winning plays.
Pick: Texans win 20-17 and cover the spread.
Eagles (-1, 49.5 o/u) at Saints
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Eagles will be scheming their defense well with Vic Fangio to cause some issues for red-hot Derek Carr. The Saints won't be able to run as easily with Alvin Kamara, and the Eagles will find ways to make Carr uncomfortable with pressure. The Eagles' offensive line will then respond for Jalen Hurts, as his legs and big arm make the difference in key spots.
Pick: Eagles win 27-24 and cover the spread.
Packers at Titans (-3, 36.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
This is shaping up to be the Malik Willis road revenge game with Jordan Love still hurting. Will Levis isn't playing well, but the Titans can lean back on the running game with Tony Pollard to take pressure off their young QB. Meanwhile, the Titans' tough run defense will slow the adjusted game plan of Matt LaFleur, keeping him and Willis from winning in their old Music City stomping grounds.
Pick: Titans win 17-16 but fail to cover the spread.
Giants at Browns (-6.5, 38.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Browns are back rolling defensively with Myles Garrett, who will use this opportunity to tee off often on Daniel Jones after they contain his two key weapons, rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers and new lead back Devin Singletary. Deshaun Watson will grind away with more help from the running game to create enough field-goal drives to keep a good distance at the end.
Pick: Browns win 23-14 and cover the spread.
Bears at Colts (-1.5, 42.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bears will get their offense going this week by trusting more in D'Andre Swift and the running game and getting more successful downfield shots from Caleb Williams to his receivers. Matt Eberflus' defense will win the battle vs. Shane Steichen's offense in his return to Indianapolis. The pressure and coverage won't do favors for slumping sophomore Anthony Richardson.
Pick: Bears win 24-20.
Dolphins at Seahawks (-5.5, 41 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Dolphins will work to be game-ready on the road, likely without Tua Tagovailoa. They can get plenty done offensively with De'Von Achane and the running game helping the wide receivers see more favorable coverage. The Seahawks have been doing a lot well offensively, and they should also use the run and intermediate passing game effectively, improving to 3-0.
Pick: Seahawks win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Panthers at Raiders (-5.5, 40.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Panthers will get a spark from Andy Dalton on the road, as he'll make better use of downfield passing opportunities for Dave Canales. The Raiders will run better to win late after Gardner Minshew gets the needed, big early plays from Davante Adams and Brock Bowers.
Pick: Raiders win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
49ers (-8, 45.5 o/u) at Rams
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Rams' defense will be ripped to shreds by Brock Purdy and the 49ers' big-play passing game featuring Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Purdy will rebound big-time from a rough game in Minnesota and hit on plenty of deep balls before giving way to Jordan Mason to play closer and Nick Bosa to tee off on Matthew Stafford.
Pick: 49ers win 31-20 and cover the spread.
Lions (-3, 51.5 o/u) at Cardinals
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Lions will be ready to rev up their passing game the right way with Jared Goff on the road, playing better off the run and working the middle of the field vs. forcing the action downfield. Aidan Hutchinson will be busy chasing down and containing Kyler Murray so his team can have one more successful drive than the host.
Pick: Lions win 30-27 and cover the spread.
Chiefs (-4.5, 46.5 o/u) at Falcons
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Tony Gonzalez Bowl will feature plenty of buzz from tight ends Travis Kelce and Kyle Pitts. "Quarterback" co-stars Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins exploit some holes to effectively use their arms in the deep middle. Other receivers will get involved, and the Chiefs will combat well what Atlanta can do on the ground.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Jaguars at Bills (-5.5, 48 o/u)
Monday 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Bills have looked fantastic in two games with Josh Allen in total control of a more efficient, run-heavy offense and diverse passing game under Joe Brady. Their defensive weakness lies vs. the run and the middle of the field in coverage, but with the way Trevor Lawrence is looking too much downfield, they can put good pressure on him on the road. Meanwhile, Allen will get to flex his deep arm more often vs. an overwhelmed secondary.
Pick: Bills win 24-17 and cover the spread.
Commanders at Bengals (-8, 48 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC
The Bengals last played the Commanders four years ago when Joe Burrow went down with a torn ACL in his rookie season. Cincinnati got back on track offensively last week in Kansas City and can rip into a weak secondary here with Ja'Marr Chase and others stretching the field. Jayden Daniels will do his best to keep Washington in the game, but it won't be enough.
Pick: Bengals win 27-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
Week 2 record straight up: 9-6
Week 2 record against the spread: 10-5
Season-to-date straight up: 21-10
Season-to-date against the spread: 17-14
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