It's hard to become a head coach in the NFL. It's even harder to remain a head coach in the NFL.
Three guys who earned such jobs just two years ago — Chip Kelly, Ben McAdoo and Mike Mularkey — are no longer in their positions. Meanwhile, Doug Pederson, another 2016 hire, just coached the Eagles to victory in Super Bowl 52.
Those who were hired last year set a higher overall standard. Sean McVay (Rams), Sean McDermott (Bills) and Doug Marrone (Jaguars) helped end three teams' long playoff droughts. Kyle Shanahan (49ers) and Anthony Lynn (Chargers) both had promising finishes to the 2017 season. Vance Joseph (Broncos) got a reprieve and a chance to live up to his high expectations.
The league is welcoming seven new hires in 2018. Four are first-time NFL head coaches.
MORE: NFL offseason schedule
There's one obvious standout: the man returning to the Raiders with a ring on his hand and redemption on his mind.
Considering potential immediate impact and the prospects of long-term success, here's ranking a strong class of new coaches, from solid in Tennessee to spectacular in Oakland.
7. Mike Vrabel, Titans
Age: 42
Previous position: Texans defensive coordinator
Tennessee in 2017 got to the playoffs after nine long seasons and won its wild-card game with Mularkey, but it decided to go hunting for a big name. It ends up with a rising young star at the cost of losing a savvy defensive coordinator, and causing yet another staff change for Marcus Mariota.
Vrabel has had a terrific trajectory as an assistant, and his winning history as a player will relate well to a young team. In a suddenly tougher AFC South, however, the rookie is facing a big challenge to improve from 9-7 rather than fading early. Vrabel made some strong staff hires, getting former Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees to come out of brief retirement and convincing new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur to leave the Rams' Jared Goff for Mariota.
6. Pat Shurmur, Giants
Age: 52
Previous position: Vikings offensive coordinator
Shurmur's first head-coaching gig came with the Browns, so he didn't have much of a fighting shot there. Now he inherits a team with a veteran-yet-fading QB in Eli Manning; a team that was in the playoffs on the strength of great defense just two seasons ago.
Shurmur has fared fine as an OC, but handling the pressure of coaching the highest-profile, biggest-market team can be an early make-or-break scenario. Will he be the right guy to re-mold Manning and diffuse the drama led by Odell Beckham Jr.?
Going from the organized ways of the Vikings to the post-chaos cleanup of the Giants is bound to meet mixed-at-best early results.
5. Steve Wilks, Cardinals
Age: 48
Previous position: Panthers defensive coordinator
Wliks is bringing the feel of Carolina to Arizona, much like his predecessor McDermott did in Buffalo. It was smart for the Cardinals to go defensive-minded for Bruce Arians' replacement with an offense already in major transition thanks to Carson Palmer's retirement and David Johnson's impending return.
Wilks can get more out of the team's established, strong defensive unit, from Chandler Jones off the edge to Patrick Peterson on the corner. Seeing what Cam Newton did for the Panthers, Wilks is also looking like an accepting coach for a young, dual-threat QB (hello, Lamar Jackson?) and can stay out of the way of his OC (hello, Mike McCoy?).
4. Matt Patricia, Lions
Age: 43
Previous position: Patriots defensive coordinator
Patricia reunites with former New England executive Bob Quinn, now Detroit's fine general manager. With Matthew Stafford in a groove, there was no reason to replace offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. The Lions' defensive talent needs to be maximized, and a strong secondary is a familiar foundation for Patricia and his seasoned coordinator, Paul Pasqualoni.
This is still a team that made the playoffs in two of the past four years and was on the brink of making it in 2017. Patricia's personality is a better fit in the NFC North than it would have been in the NFC East with the Giants.
Patricia can have quick success, as the hard part of finding a franchise QB is out of the way.
3. Frank Reich, Colts
Age: 56
Previous position: Eagles offensive coordinator
The Colts might have dodged a big bullet with the Josh McDaniels mess. They instead land the winning offensive coordinator of Super Bowl 52, and Reich already looks like the right, better move.
Reich started his pro coaching career in Indianapolis. He will bring respect back to the organization and also get plenty of it from his players. That's before getting into the fact that he'll have a strong influence on Andrew Luck after his recent work with Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Nick Foles.
This isn't just a rebound second choice for the Colts. This is a home run.
IYER: Reich hire a luxury for Colts
2. Matt Nagy, Bears
Age: 39
Previous position: Chiefs offensive coordinator
Nagy is trying to follow Pederson in moving on to have top-level NFC success with a talented QB taken No. 2 overall in the draft. He is the perfect guy to raise Mitchell Trubisky to the next level with his passing skill set and athleticism.
Nagy also had the foresight to keep Vic Fangio in charge of the defense and accelerate the offensive principles with Mark Helfrich. Nagy already has looked the part and talked the part of having many good years in Chicago.
1. Jon Gruden, Raiders
Age: 54
Previous position: "Monday Night Football" analyst
Will Gruden rediscover the magic that turned the Raiders into AFC champions and raised the Bucs to Super Bowl champions? Ten years is a long time away from the game, but Gruden picked a good time to return, with Derek Carr and Khaili Mack as the ideal leaders only a season removed from earning the team's first playoff berth since 2002.
Gruden has an all-star staff and still has a genius football mind. He will get the results and return to his status as a coaching superstar.
... Just in time for the glimmer of Las Vegas.
