Last year at this time, Cam Newton was the hands-down NFL MVP.
With four weeks left in 2016, the race is a little more interesting.
MORE: Week 14 playoff scenarios
Likewise, Las Vegas has some intriguing updated odds in the battle for the league's most coveted individual award. Quarterbacks, as they usually do, dominate the most valuable conversation. But, for now, the runaway leader is a running back.
Here's breaking down the top 10 candidates, according to Bovada.lv, and a look at five long shots to not rule out.
1. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys (12/5): Elliott is pretty much a lock to win offensive rookie of the year, now with incredible odds (1/10) in his favor. The real debate is whether he can make it a OROY-MVP sweep and get in some exclusive all-time company with Jim Brown (1957) and Earl Campbell (1978).
Elliott might see his workload scaled down if and when Dallas locks things up early for the playoffs, but he has a comfortable cushion for the rushing title over former Cowboys feature back DeMarco Murray, now with the Titans.
Barring injury, Elliott will be the choice. That's also because there's a logjam of similarly valued quarterbacks behind him that's bound to split votes. When thinking about Elliott's immediate impact for an 11-1 team, it's hard to see how anyone can beat him out.
Vegas has this right. Everyone else is scrambling to play catch-up.
WATCH: Elliott makes Vikings look silly
2. Derek Carr, QB, Raiders (7/2): Carr ranks fourth in passing yards, seventh in passer rating and seventh in passing TDs. But the biggest number is in his favor is six fourth-quarter comebacks. That's 60 percent of Oakland's 10 wins, folks.
The voters love someone who defines the intangible of "clutch," and Carr backs it up with his fiery emotions. He's also completely likeable and worth rewarding. He needs to keep it rolling, through, and help his team win the AFC West to further improve his standing.
3-4. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots and Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions (15/2): Brady has missed four games, but it doesn't matter, because he's been lights out since his return, going 7-1 and leading the NFL in passer rating. There has even been more on him of late, with tight end Rob Gronkowski out for the season and power running back LeGarrette Blount slowing down. New England's defense still has plenty of holes that Brady covers up by passing the team out to nice leads. He should be higher than Stafford because of all that.
Stafford deserves the praise he has received for transforming from reckless, strong-armed gunslinger to efficient leader, adjusting so well without Calvin Johnson. It's been a career-changing year, but unfortunately, he's being overshadowed by Carr and Brady. That won't change in the next four weeks.
PICKS: Lions, Patriots both win in Week 14
5-6. Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons and Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks (10/1): Ryan used to be ahead of Carr, Brady and Stafford, but his play has faded as injuries have taken a toll on his supporting cast. With Atlanta no longer a sure thing for the playoffs, Ryan probably belongs in the long-shot column.
Wilson might be more in the mix had he not been slowed by ankle and knee injuries early. Not living up to his own brilliant second half of the 2015 season cools him off from consideration.
7. Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys (12/1): Prescott is having the greatest rookie season of any QB ever, but because of both Elliott and the veteran QBs, he will have no hardware to show for it.
But heck, Jerry Jones would be just fine if Prescott "only" won Super Bowl LI MVP.
MORE: Putting Cowboys rookie dominance in perspective
8-10. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers; Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins; Drew Brees, QB, Saints (33/1): Cousins and Brees have put up some gaudy numbers in high-volume passing situations. Good for them, but that doesn't make them MVP-worthy.
Rodgers, a two-time winner of the award, is having a terrific second half of the season, and if Green Bay were to rally to keep up its playoff streak, it would be all because of him. He can easily rocket up before it's all done.
Off the board, but not off the radar:
— David Johnson, RB, Cardinals: It's too bad Arizona has fallen out of playoff contention, because Johnson would be right up there among the favorites. He is on pace for 2,278 yards from scrimmage, which is just outside the top 10 single seasons of all time. With 15 combined rushing and receiving scores in 12 games, he's right on pace for 20 TDs. He'll settle for fantasy football MVP and maybe the stat-based consolation of offensive player of the year.
— Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers: If Carr, Ryan and Stafford are up there because of "carrying a team to surprise results," Winston is way undervalued. Marcus Mariota has gotten a lot of attention as the more efficient passer, but Winston's growth and grittiness is what has Tampa Bay one game better than Tennessee overall ... and with better playoff hopes.
— Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: Roethlisberger was Sporting News' preseason pick and has played very well when healthy. But because of developments in Pittsburgh's passing game, Le'Veon Bell, who's missed more action, has become the focal point of what the Steelers are doing of late. But don't sleep on Big Ben also having a big finish to propel his team into the playoffs.
IYER: Bell will keep running Steelers into playoffs
— Von Miller, OLB, Broncos: The Broncos are winning despite injuries, inconsistency at quarterback and regression in the running game. So much for their defense not taking on the same type of burden this season. Miller, still the unquestioned leading playmaker of that talented group, deserves more love. He has a chance if he can rack up enough sacks and Denver somehow jumps from wild-card back into AFC West title position.
— Khalil Mack, OLB, Raiders: Carr is getting a lot of love for what he does to Oakland opponents in crunch time. But Mack has had some spotlight second-half moments as the ultimate defensive closer, reminding everyone that with J.J. Watt on the shelf, he is the NFL's best defensive player standing. What has hurt him most is the Raiders' struggles elsewhere on D ... which, in reality, should be helping him.
