NFL general managers face a lot of pressure in their day-to-day jobs, but they are most under the microscope during the NFL Draft. The talent evaluators face critical decisions that require them to weigh their needs compared to the best players available where they are picking.
That is why there are surprise picks every year in the NFL Draft. General managers have a penchant for sticking to their boards, consensus be damned, to ensure that they get their guys — even if it's a bit earlier than those players are projected to go.
Because of this, there are always a handful of poor value picks that deviate considerably from the consensus player rankings. That doesn't guarantee that the player — often deemed a "reach" — will be bad; some of them become star players and prove the general manager's gamble to be a good one.
But still, taking a player earlier than expected is a risk. If he doesn't pan out, fans are left questioning exactly why the general manager bucked the consensus to select a dreaded bust.
The 2023 NFL Draft provided several notable examples of this. In a weaker-than-usual draft class, general managers were willing to reach for players that they liked and believed would fit their system. They disregarded positional value and made some head-scratching picks in the first few rounds.
The Sporting News will break down some of the most egregious reaches from the first two days of the 2023 NFL Draft by looking at where players were selected compared to their rankings on the NFL Mock Draft Database's consensus big board and SN's own big board.
MORE 2023 NFL DRAFT:
Full results | Team-by-team grades | Biggest steals
It will be hard to consider any pick beyond the third round a reach in this year's weaker draft class, so here's a look at the biggest reaches of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
- Round 1, Pick 12
Gibbs was one of the first picks in the 2023 NFL Draft that truly surprised those watching. Many believed that the Alabama running back would be selected late on the first day of the draft. Instead, he worked his way into the top 12 after the Lions traded down from the sixth selection to the 12th to select him.
There's no denying that Gibbs has talent. He racked up 1,370 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns on 195 touches in his lone season at Alabama and was the offense's second-best player behind quarterback Bryce Young. He will give the Lions a workhorse back who has skills akin to those of Alvin Kamara.
Even still, Gibbs was ranked 29th overall on the NFL Mock Draft Database's consensus big board. As such, it was probably a little early for Gibbs, especially considering the lack of position value in selecting a Round 1 running back.
That said, it's worth noting that NFL teams were much higher on Gibbs than most media analysts. They viewed the Alabama as one of the few blue-chip players in a top-light 2023 NFL Draft class, so while Bijan Robinson got most of the love, teams had a healthy respect for Gibbs.
In fact, WalterFootball.com's Charlie Campbell reports that the Jets would have considered Gibbs with their pick at 15 if he was still on the board. That's despite having second-year back Breece Hall on the roster. So, while Gibbs may look like a big-time reach to some, it may have only been a minor one.
Nonetheless, the Lions have gotten plenty of criticism for spending an early pick on a non-Robinson running back. That makes Gibbs a poor value pick even though he could certainly pan out at the NFL level.
MORE: Comparing Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson's stats, 40 times & more
Jets: Will McDonald, EDGE, Iowa State
- Round 1, Pick 15
The Jets were widely expected to target an offensive lineman with their first-round pick. However, trading down from 13 to 15 in the Aaron Rodgers trade ended up hurting them immensely, as the Steelers were able to leapfrog them to get the last of the top-three offensive tackles, Broderick Jones, at No. 14 overall.
As such, the Jets pivoted to target Will McDonald. The Iowa State product had a productive career with the Cyclones, posting 35 sacks over five years with the team. Teams loved his athletic ability and bend around the edge on tape, so he could become a potent pass rusher at the next level.
However, there are concerns about McDonald's undersized 6-4, 239-pound frame that were expected to drop him to the latter stage of the first round. In fact, some even believed that McDonald would be a second-round pick, so the Jets reached a bit taking him at 15 overall.
The NFL Mock Draft Database's consensus big board had McDonald ranked 34th overall while SN had McDonald as its 52nd-ranked prospect. That puts him in the running for the biggest reach of the first round.
Commanders: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
- Round 1, Pick 16
Forbes was a late riser in the lead-up to the 2023 NFL Draft, so it wasn't necessarily a surprise to see him be selected in the top 20 picks of the draft. What was a surprise was that he went one pick before the Patriots chose Christian Gonzalez, a cornerback who had been mocked ahead of Forbes almost exclusively before the draft.
Gonzalez was ranked sixth on SN's big board and seventh on the consensus big board while Forbes was rated 44th and 30th respectively. So, Forbes was a modest reach by those measures, but his selection is compounded by the fact that he was taken ahead of the falling Gonzalez.
While Forbes wasn't the best value for the Commanders, there's still a lot to like about him. He recorded 14 interceptions during his three seasons at Mississippi State and should be a ballhawk in the NFL. He just needs to fill out his 166-pound frame a bit more to avoid durability and physicality concerns.
Even if Forbes does perform well, he will naturally be compared to Gonzalez during his NFL career. It will be interesting to see if the Commanders ultimately made the right choice in their search for a top defensive back.
Lions: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
- Round 1, Pick 18
The Lions didn't make just one reach in the first round. They actually had two. Gibbs was arguably the less egregious of the two, as Campbell was expected to potentially be a late first-round pick but more likely an early second-round pick. He was ranked 42nd and 47th on the Mock Draft Database and SN's big boards respectively.
Even still, the Lions opted to take Campbell with the 18th selection. And no, it isn't because he shares any relation to head coach Dan Campbell. The team simply believes that he can be a three-down difference-maker at linebacker.
And Jack Campbell is not without his fans. WalterFootball.com's Charlie Campbell (also not related) reports that he has drawn comparisons to a five-time All-Pro linebacker.
Multiple team evaluators have said Campbell is similar to former Carolina Panthers All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly.
So, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about Campbell's future. But fans can still be frustrated that the team took him a bit earlier than they needed to — and that the Lions used both of their first-round picks on players that don't have high positional value in the modern NFL.
LIVE: Follow SN's draft grades from the 2023 NFL Draft
Cowboys: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
- Round 1, Pick 26
The Cowboys were porous against the run in 2022, so it makes sense that they would target a big-bodied nose tackle to help fix that. Smith fits that profile at 6-3, 323 pounds, but he was taken a bit earlier than expected.
Smith came in at 35 on the Mock Draft Database's consensus big board, but SN's Vinnie Iyer had him at 57 on his. Why? Because while Smith is a great run-stuffer, he isn't much of a pass rusher. He racked up just 0.5 sacks during his three years at Michigan, so it's worth wondering whether he will be able to improve his pass-rushing skills at the next level. He has the quickness needed to do so; it's just about honing his game and consistency.
If Smith turns out to be mostly a one-note player in the NFL, he will have to be a truly elite run-stopper to warrant a first-round pick. That could happen, but there's no denying that Dallas reached a bit to fill a need at 26.
Panthers: Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss
- Round 2, Pick 39
Mingo had a productive senior season at Ole Miss after catching 51 passes for 861 yards and five touchdowns, and his 6-2, 220-pound frame endeared him to coaches during the lead-up to the 2023 NFL Draft.
While Mingo figures to be a good contested-catch receiver at the next level, the Ole Miss product was ranked just 79th on the consensus big board. And Sporting News had him at 119 overall on its final big board.
Still, Ole Miss has produced plenty of quality Round 2 receivers in recent years, including A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf and Elijah Moore, so Mingo could be the next in that impressive lineage. Still, the Panthers probably could have gotten him later — or at least traded back to acquire him.
Commanders: Jartavius Martin, DB, Illinois
- Round 2, Pick 47
This was a weird pick for the Commanders on multiple accounts. First, they had already selected a cornerback in the first round, so it was presumed that they were going to target a different position in the second round.
Second, Jartavius "Quan" Martin was ranked 126th overall on Sporting News' big board and checked in at 83 on the consensus big board. Thus, it seems far too early for him to come off the board.
Perhaps the NFL was higher on Martin than draft analysts. After all, he had three interceptions in both 2018 and 2022, and played well across from top-five pick Devon Witherspoon as a senior. But either way, this was a bit earlier than Martin was expected to come off the board.
Packers: Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State
- Round 2, Pick 50
Reed was expected to be a potential late-Day 2 candidate. At 5-11, 187 pounds, it was expected that he would have a chance to be a solid slot receiver in the NFL after he posted 55 catches for 636 yards and five touchdowns during his final season at Michigan State.
The Packers, however, liked Reed enough to spend the 50th overall pick on the Michigan State man. Green Bay has had plenty of success drafting second-round receivers, so it's probably best not to doubt them.
Still, Reed checked in at 89th overall on the consensus big board and 117th on SN's big board. As such, this constitutes a reach, especially with Jalin Hyatt still on the board.
Cowboys: Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan
- Round 2, Pick 58
Schoonmaker going in the second round is certainly a surprise considering that he was never really a primary starter during his time at Michigan. He backed up Erick All for the most part but was given a chance to showcase his well-rounded skill set at times during his career.
The Cowboys liked what they saw from Schoonmaker enough to take him early, but he was ranked just outside of the top 100 on the consensus big board. As such, it's safe to say that Schoonmaker was a bit of a reach, especially considering that some other higher-rated tight ends, including Darnell Washington, were on the board.
Schoonmaker did post 35 catches for 418 yards and three touchdowns as a senior, so perhaps in a bigger role, he can be a viable replacement for Dalton Schultz. But the Cowboys probably should have waited a bit longer to draft him.
Jaguars: Brenton Strange, TE, Penn State
- Round 2, Pick 61
For the second consecutive year, there was a strange pick made in the NFL Draft. In 2022, the Patriots selected Cole Strange much earlier than most anticipated. In 2023, the Jaguars took Brenton Strange in the second round.
The Penn State Strange was considered a sleeper and late riser ahead of the 2023 draft, but he was still expected to last until Day 3. He ranked 130th on the consensus big board, so the Jaguars targeting him at the end of the second round, even despite his strong performance at the NFL Combine, was a surprise.
Doug Pederson's offense relies heavily on tight ends to do work in the passing game, so Jacksonville will have a role for Strange. But given that they already have Evan Engram, it seems, well, strange that the Jaguars would use an early pick on a player who may only be a No. 2 tight end.
Texans: Juice Scruggs, OL, Penn State
- Round 2, Pick 62
Scruggs may end up being the biggest reach of the 2023 NFL Draft. The Penn State center snuck into the second round but was widely believed to be a Day 3 prospect. He ranked 157th on Sporting News' big board and 172nd on the consensus big board, so he went roughly 100 picks earlier than expected.
Scruggs was a two-year starter and will help upgrade the middle of the Texans' line in front of C.J. Stroud. But it's still hard to get excited about this pick, especially considering that Houston traded up a few slots to get him.
Patriots: Marte Mapu, LB, Sacramento State
- Round 3, Pick 76
Mapu got a lot of love from NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah when the Patriots selected him. He took to Twitter to praise the pick after it was made.
Marte Mapu is my favorite player in this entire draft. The Patriots are getting an absolute playmaker.
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) April 29, 2023
Despite the ringing endorsement, this was a bit earlier than Mapu was expected to go. The FCS star is a safety/linebacker hybrid who will be a good fit for the Patriots defense, but he never ranked higher than 156 on the consensus big board ahead of the draft. He was viewed as a positional tweener, so Bill Belichick and Co. will have to figure out exactly how best to use him at the next level.
Panthers: D.J. Johnson, EDGE, Oregon
- Round 3, Pick 80
The Panthers jumped up 12 picks to select Johnson, which was an odd move. The Oregon product played both defensive end and tight end during his time at Oregon, but it was expected this his pass rushing skills would make him a pro-caliber prospect.
That said, Johnson was widely mocked as a Day 3 pick with great athletic upside but middling production (six sacks in 2023). The Panthers evidently like his athleticism enough to take a chance on him, but he ranked 188th on the consensus big board and 174th on SN's big board.
That makes Johnson the second-lowest-rated prospect selected in the first three rounds, so it's fair to question the Panthers' strategy here.
Lions: Brodric Martin, DT, Western Kentucky
- Round 3, Pick 96
I swear I'm not picking on the Lions here; their board just happens to shake out a lost differently than the consensus.
Martin checked in at No. 235 on the consensus big board and barely made the cut among the top 200 prospects on Sporting News' big board at 186. Nonetheless, the Lions traded into the back end of the third round to grab the defensive tackle after he averaged 31 tackles and two sacks per season while at Western Kentucky.
Martin has a 6-5, 337-pound frame, so he should be a run-stuffing nose tackle at the next level. Still, it's hard to understand exactly why Detroit felt the need to trade up for him.
49ers: Jake Moody, K, Michigan
- Round 3, Pick 99
Look, let's be honest about this one. Jake Moody is a great kicker who never missed an extra point and made 82.1 percent of his field goals during his five years at Michigan. He has the leg strength needed to be a solid pro and the 49ers needed a new kicker.
But... Moody is still a kicker. There are plenty of talented one that come out of college every year. Few get drafted, and those that do almost always go on Day 3 of the NFL Draft. In fact, Moody is the earliest kicker selected since Roberto Aguayo — a notorious bust — was taken by the Buccaneers in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft.
Those two are now the only kickers selected in the first three rounds since Mike Nugent was taken 47th overall in 2005.
Moody well could be a good pro, but kickers have a high bust rate. If the 49ers really wanted him, they could have waited to take him until Day 3, or just settled on another kicker.
