With DeShone Kizer’s Notre Dame team struggling, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson having an up-and-down season and Miami’s Brad Kaaya losing two straight games, NFL teams in need of a quarterback already are broadening their prospect horizons. Does Larry Fedora and North Carolina have one for them?
Also in this week’s NFL draft spotlight, Ohio State broke the record for most picks in one draft last year, and they have no shortage of prospects this year.
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Plus, meet the FBS sack leader and learn why he might struggle to get drafted. We also name the top 10 pass rushers in the country and predict where they might get drafted.
Mitch Trubisky, NFL quarterback?
Trubisky started his junior season at UNC with remarkable efficiency. Through five games, he had 1,711 yards, 13 touchdowns and not a single turnover. While that efficiency was a bit misleading, as he was the recipient of a few lucky breaks after poor throws against Pittsburgh and Florida State, his performance was notable.
After the streak came to a crashing end in a blowout loss to Virginia Tech, Trubisky rebounded against Miami and once again played with awesome efficiency (71.7 percent completion, two touchdowns and 299 yards).
Trubisky’s play against Miami might have crystallized his status as a draftable QB. At 6-3, 220 pounds, he meets the NFL threshold for size, and the infamous hand size question mark shouldn’t be an issue. The ball comes off his hand smoothly, as he spins a tight ball and can finish with velocity regardless of footwork or arm placement.
But most impressive is Trubisky’s confidence and control under pressure. He’s comfortable in his arm strength and teammates to adjust off his first read and be creative, even from the pocket. On the red-zone touchdown below, Trubisky showcases his velocity, confidence and trust.
But that brashness as a passer is also why he might be well served by another year at UNC. His confidence can turn into laziness in footwork and mechanics, and his throwing motion is a bit elongated, a la Jameis Winston. But it’s his bad habits of throwing sidearm on the run, abandoning mechanics downfield and not following through on easy throws that can lead to frustrating missed opportunities.
It’s plays like the one below, where on third down Trubisky throws a bit too early, abandons all footwork and throws a pop-up into a host of Miami defenders.
UNC’s offense uses quick outs, bubble screens and running back swing routes to keep defenses stretched horizontally. That allows the running game (and especially the quarterback) to take shots accross the middle of the field in the red zone and early in drives. Trubisky has developed nicely in that scheme.
He should not be discussed as a first- or second-round pick, but his play this year has garnered NFL attention. And while he’d be better served with another year in college to refine his mechanics and footwork, NFL teams will be neither surprised nor disinterested should he enter the 2017 draft.
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Ohio State’s ridiculous depth
The Buckeyes dominated the 2016 NFL Draft with 12 overall picks, including eight in the top 100. It cemented just how remarkably talented their roster was, including having their backup quarterback and three one-year starters drafted.
Ohio State has won its last two games in spite of its passing game. JT Barrett, who I recently was told is considering (and even leaning toward) entering the draft, has just 319 yards, a 52 percent completion rate, two touchdowns and two interceptions in that span and has been more of a running asset. Aside from Barrett’s woes, though, this team clearly has just reloaded, not rebuilt.
The last five teams to have 10 or more players drafted in one season had 5.6 players on average selected the following year. Only one of those teams (USC in 2009 after 10 in 2008) had more than eight draft picks. This Ohio State team might have at least that many.
Offensively, the Buckeys have two sure draft picks and possible top-two-rounders. Offensive weapon Curtis Samuel, whose best NFL position is receiver, offers remarkable quickness on the edge, explosiveness through the hole and natural pass-catching upside. Receiver Corey Smith has NFL talent, as well, and center Pat Elfein might be the 2017 draft’s best interior offensive lineman.
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Defensively, linebacker Raekwon McMillion, cornerback Gareon Conley and safety Malik Hooker all could be 2017 first-rounders if they declare. Hooker might be a top 10 overall contender, as his interception numbers and range as a safety put him at No. 12 in our most recent mock draft.
The Buckeyes have seven sure draft picks for 2017 and a host of juniors who might declare early. Coach Urban Meyer may not have success in turning college quarterbacks into prepared NFL passers, but he has turned Ohio State into the NFL factory he had at Florida.
Player spotlight: Ejuan Price, Pittsburgh (.5 sack vs. Virginia, 9 sacks/13 TFL)
Price currently leads the FBS with nine sacks, as well as 13 tackles for loss, and has become an NFL prospect. He has been active, productive and disruptive all season, but the top-level stats and impact plays will need to continue, because Price doesn’t have what every NFL team covets in an early draft pick: size.
At just 6-0 and 255 pounds, Price doesn’t meet the NFL threshold for his position. His most obvious (and likely best-case) comparison is Elvis Dumervil, who at 6-1, 257 pounds turned production at the college level into continued success through his pro career. Price does offer some of the same skills as Dumervil — he’s able to stay balanced while low to the ground, he’s super decisive with his hand quickness, he moves laterally as he penetrates and he works best with underneath pad level.
But given his issues against the run and his inability to generate pressure when two blockers engage even a little, Price needs an NFL team to believe he can buck the NFL measurable requirements. Prior to the season, many teams had rejected him as a prospect altogether.
Pitt fans might see Price as the next Aaron Donald, an under-appreciated and undersized defensive lineman who will prove doubters wrong. But Price’s concerns are far more of an issue on the perimeter, and he’ll be trying to make NFL teams believe in him as a top 100 draft pick throughout the next seven months.
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Top 10: Sack leaders in FBS
Stats aren’t something evaluators often use to determine player projections or which guys to target, but sack totals are numbers they’ll check. While it’s far from an accurate measure of disruption, penetration and overall pass-rushing upside, it can show who, especially early in the season, is producing above his peers.
Price leads this list. Demarcus Walker, who hasn’t been as impressive athletically as expected this year, was featured last week. Scouts say Wake Forest’s Duke Ejiofor has the most attention, and his consistent penetration from the interior has been impressive.
Air Force’s Ryan Watson has the requisite bend and finishing quickness to keep him on NFL radars. Jimmy Gilbert at linebacker and Harold Landry at defensive end have long been in the notes for NFL teams, and both could parlay productive 2016 seasons into top-3-round draft choices.
1. Ejuan Price, DE, Pittsburgh (Sr.): Third-fifth round
2. Demarcus Walker, DE, Florida State (Sr.): Second-third round
3. Duke Ejiofor, DT, Wake Forest (Jr.): Third-fifth round
4. Randy Allen, DE, South Alabama (Sr.): Fourth-sixth round
5. Ifeadi Odenigbo, Northwestern (Sr.): Third-fifth round
6. Ryan Watson, LB, Air Force (Sr.): Fourth-sixth round
7. Arden Key, DE, LSU (So.): First round
8. Haason Reddick, DE, Temple (Sr.): Sixth-seventh round
9. Jimmie Gilbert, LB, Colorado (Sr.): Second-fourth round
10a. Tarrell Basham, DE/DT, Ohio (Sr.): Fourth-sixth round
10b. Harold Landry, DE, Boston College (Jr.): Second-fourth round
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Something you missed: Carlos Henderson, Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech quarterback Ryan Higgins has been one of the most productive passers in the country this year. But against UMass, his receiver, senior Carlos Henderson, stole the show.
Henderson finished with 12 receptions for 326 yards and five touchdowns. He’s one of only 10 receivers since 2000 to accomplish that five-touchdown feat. Only former Oklahoma State receiver Rashaun Woods had more (seven in 2003). It was the first five-touchdown game since BYU’s Cody Hoffman in 2002. It was the most receiving yards in a the-plus touchdown performance since 2000. He has eight touchdowns and 558 receiving yards in just his last two games. His 558 yards over the last two weekends alone would put him 33rd in the FBS, and his eight touchdowns would make him tied for fifth in the country.
Stats and historical perspective aside, Henderson is just a junior. At 5-11, 190 pounds, he has more work to do to prove he’s an NFL prospect. His fellow Tech receiver, Trent Taylor, might be an NFL longshot himself. But Henderson’s finishing ability in the red zone, quick-twitch moves and body control as a receiver might make him an NFL prospect for the 2018 draft.