The 2018 NFL Draft is still more than two months away from its April 26 start date. That leaves a lot of time — more than enough — to pick apart the top quarterback prospects in this year's class.
Five in particular — Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen — will be scrutinized more than any other players in the draft. And for some, it will be difficult to shake off the criticism, fair or unfair, that will surely come.
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Which of it is legitimate, and which can be ignored? Sporting News takes an in-depth look for each of the top quarterback prospects.
Sam Darnold
Bad criticism: He's not ready to start
Darnold played in 27 games at USC in 2016 and '17 — only four fewer than Mitchell Trubisky had in three years, and he might be the Bears' franchise quarterback. Darnold is the best bet for the Browns at No. 1, and if the franchise is in position to sit him behind a veteran for a year, that's fine. Remember, Darnold can makes throws like this with defensive linemen in every throwing lane:
That's a great play by Sam Darnold pic.twitter.com/rsSh2Iic52
— Bill Bender (@BillBender92) December 30, 2017
Good question: Will he protect the ball?
Darnold struggled turning the ball over at USC. He had 35 total turnovers in two seasons starting, and he'll likely end up on a team that can't afford takeaways like that. Cleveland's DeShone Kizer threw an NFL-worst 22 interceptions last season, and he threw three fewer interceptions than Darnold in college. Chances are Darnold will start at some point as a rookie. That's the world in which we live.
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Josh Rosen
Bad criticism: He's outspoken
Rosen was one of the most outspoken players in college football, but it came from an insightful place. He was criticized for his poignant views on student-athletes. He sat out UCLA's bowl game. He'll win some news conferences and lose a few more, but how Rosen handles the media shouldn't influence whether a team drafts him. It will make the interview portion at the NFL Combine more intriguing, but his talent isn't a question. Rosen was the top quarterback coming out of high school, and if there's any question about his ability, go back and watch the highlights from the 34-point comeback in a 45-44 victory against Texas A&M this year.
Good question: Can he elevate a NFL franchise?
Listen to this interview with Andre Ware at the 2018 State Farm All-Star Challenge: "I didn't accomplish the goals I set out to on the field in terms of wins and losses, but it was a great school," Rosen told Ware.
Those wins and losses will matter a lot more in the NFL. UCLA went 18-20 the last three seasons; Rosen wasn't able to elevate the program, and that three-year record got former NFL coach Jim Mora fired. Not all of that is on Rosen, but he'll have to take on some responsibility as the quarterback. If we're going strictly by the film, Rosen is the go-to candidate to be the No. 1 pick. On the surface, it's a similar profile to Cal's Jared Goff. The Golden Bears were 14-23 while Goff was there, but he helped flip the team from a 1-11 record in 2013 to an 8-5 record by 2015.
Can Rosen be a guy who can lead an NFL team for the next decade? It's not an easy question to answer.
Baker Mayfield
Bad criticism: He's another Johnny Manziel
It's an overplayed criticism at this point, one Mayfield even took time to address by saying, "I'm not Manziel." Why? Sure, Mayfield did have an offseason arrest in 2017, and he was suspended for the start of a game in 2017 for his antics during a victory against Kansas. He's an emotional player on the field.
Manziel dealt with more off-field issues, including an alcohol problem and a domestic violence charge that was later dismissed. Manziel never got past the initial rush of "Johnny Football." Mayfield, meanwhile, was a successful starting quarterback for three seasons at Oklahoma. He also was the best player in college football last season. You don't want him to tone down too much on the field.
Good question: Is he another Colt McCoy?
Mayfield has been compared to seemingly every quarterback possible. Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Brett Favre all have been mentioned. Worst-case scenario? He turns out to be another Big 12 quarterback who goes on to an average NFL career.
Remember Colt McCoy at Texas? Same height, similar weight as Mayfield — and he had the same highly decorated college career. The difference? McCoy was a third-round pick who (like Manziel) ended up in Cleveland. McCoy is still in the league, but he's a backup.
Mayfield's biggest question will be answering whether his size and playmaking ability will translate to the NFL. Sometimes it does — Brees and Wilson are perfect examples of that — and other times it doesn't. Manziel isn't the only one who applies here.
MORE: Lazy comparisons will cost NFL teams
Lamar Jackson
Bad criticism: He's a wide receiver
That has been the go-to talking point, especially from ESPN analyst Bill Polian, a former NFL GM. When Sporting News interviewed Jackson last July, the Heisman Trophy winning-quarterback said that particular criticism hit him the most.
"Probably the receiver one," Jackson said. "The one that's like, 'Oh he might play receiver.' A lot of people say that, but I don't see how. I can throw with the best of them. I don't know how many touchdowns I threw, but I threw a lot. That's the biggest one that gets me."
Jackson isn't a receiver; he's a quarterback. And he's a dynamic game-changing quarterback who has had two years as a starter under one of college football's best offensive minds in Bobby Petrino. In the last two games against Clemson, Jackson led Louisville to a combined 1,001 total yards of offense. That's reminiscent of the stat that was thrown around about Deshaun Watson against Alabama in the two College Football Playoff championship games in 2016 and '17. Jackson should be every bit as good as Watson at the next level.
Good question: Can he run less and still be effective?
Louisville had Jackson under center more in 2017, but his rushing attempts only dropped from 260 to 232: That's still way too many carries at the NFL level. Robert Griffith III had 180 carries as a rookie with Washington, but was never the same after a knee injury. Watson also suffered a knee injury last season. Aaron Rodgers suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. There's always an injury risk with a quarterback who plays outside the pocket.
Cam Newton is the best example of a quarterback who maximizes rushing attempts. He had a career-high 139 rushing attempts last season. Newton has averaged 118.3 carries the last seven seasons. If Jackson can stay in that range and be effective in the passing game, he'll be a star quarterback in the NFL.
Josh Allen
Bad criticism: He wasn't good enough at a small school
Wyoming was better because of Allen. The Cowboys played in the Mountain West championship game in 2016, and the supporting cast wasn't nearly as good last season. Allen passed for 44 touchdowns and 21 interceptions the last two seasons, and he showcased that talent one last time at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The hype leading up to 2017 was out of control, and he had no chance to measure up. Still, the arm strength is ridiculous.
The small school thing? That doesn't bother us one bit.
Good question: Are we into the measurables too much?
We are. Allen's Combine measurements will emphasize what we already know: He's a 6-5, 235-pound quarterback with a rocket-launcher arm who checks all the boxes in the interview room. The measurements are close to Blake Bortles, who was taken by Jacksonville with the No. 3 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. The lesson? The team that takes Allen will have to show patience, because measurables aren't everything.
That's why Allen is the riskiest — and most intriguing pick — in this year's draft.
