The first player taken in the 2012 NFL Draft — and the consensus best quarterback prospect in many years, not just that one — did not play a single snap in 2017.
The player taken 87 spots after him just won Super Bowl MVP. The one picked 14 spots after that is likely to pass Luck, and everybody else, as the highest-paid player in the NFL. And a quarterback in the same draft class as all of them, who hits the free-agent market next month coming off his best season, a division title and a trip to the conference championship round … was not drafted that year at all.
And to bring it full circle, the player taken second overall, immediately after the first, the quarterback universally regarded as the next-best prospect, also never played a snap last season.
Keep all of these facts about the 2012 quarterback class in mind during the weeks leading up to the 2018 edition. The debate over who is the absolute best of this incoming class will only rage further, as will which quarterbacks belong in the elite group overall.
MOCK DRAFT 2018:
Steelers, Bills trade up for QBs
Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson — one way or another, they’ll all be in this conversation … this year's version of the 2012 top picks, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.
Who ends up being this year's Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins or Case Keenum, respectively, won’t be known until long after the haggling over the top prospects ends.
For that matter, the identity of this year’s Russell Wilson will stay unknown for several seasons, as well. Some other quarterback with name recognition and a list of accomplishments and credentials will be overlooked for some tangible or intangible reason and allowed to slide an extra three or four rounds, to become a star and a champion at, initially, a bargain price.
And that quarterback will be compared to another who went earlier, did less, yet still managed to find work and land massive, market-driven and seemingly unearned paychecks. That would make him, say, the Brock Osweiler of this draft.
The bottom line: If quarterbacks taken after Day 1, or even Day 2 (or not at all), out-perform and out-earn the ones in the upper echelon during the drawn-out run-up to the draft, it will not be unprecedented at all. The most stark example of the last two decades — since 2000, at least, the year Tom Brady lasted after six other quarterbacks went — was just six years ago.
Compare the four quarterbacks taken in the first round in 2012, to four that were taken in the third round or later, or undrafted, with select criteria from their careers and the 2017 seasons.
The first-rounders:
- Andrew Luck (first overall, Colts): Of the first-rounders, Luck represents all three playoff victories and five of the seven combined playoff starts. Those were in his first three seasons, when he started every regular-season game. In the three seasons since, he has missed 26 of 48 starts, including all 16 last year. His contract extension for $87 million guaranteed began in 2016.
- Robert Griffin III (second, Washington): One division title, one playoff appearance, NFL offensive rookie of the year in his first season. But in two of the last three seasons, he did not play a single game, and in the season in between, 2016 in Cleveland, he played five games.
- Ryan Tannehill (eighth, Dolphins): He did not play a game in 2017 after tearing his ACL in his 13th game of 2016 and hurting it again during the preseason. It had been his best statistical season, headed toward his first winning season and the Dolphins’ first playoff appearance of his career. His extension, starting in 2015, was for $45 million guaranteed.
- Brandon Weeden (22nd, Browns): Lasted two seasons in Cleveland, got cut, was a backup in Dallas for a season and a half, finished 2015 in Houston, never got off the bench for the Texans in 2016, got cut, was signed as an emergency guy in Tennessee last year, never played. This completes the 2017 washout of the entire 2012 quarterback draft class.
NFL FREE AGENCY:
Breaking down 2018 QB market
Third round and later:
- Russell Wilson (third round, 75th, Seahawks): Took the starting job from expensive free agent Matt Flynn. Won Super Bowl in second season, lost in Super Bowl in third, reached playoffs in each of his first five seasons, has never missed a start, made his fourth Pro Bowl this past season, signed extension for $61.5 million guaranteed.
- Nick Foles (third, 88th, Eagles): In case his story isn’t familiar at this point: two stints with the Eagles full of insanely high highs and low lows. A seven-touchdown game and a season of 27 touchdowns and two interceptions, then a trade for Sam Bradford, then a season under Jeff Fisher, then a season backing up Alex Smith, then one backing up Carson Wentz, then, well, Super Bowl MVP. Has an offseason full of intrigue on the horizon.
- Kirk Cousins (fourth, 102nd, Washington): Taken in the same draft as Griffin, and has been the center of almost non-stop drama since. No end in sight for it, because after three starts, a playoff trip, three straight 4,000-yard seasons and two franchise tags … he’ll either be tagged again for the largest tag contract ever, or sign the largest quarterback contract ever.
- Case Keenum (undrafted, Texans): After a stats-packed career at Houston, made it until the last cut of camp, joined the practice squad, was resigned in the 2013 offseason, ended up starting eight games for a 2-14 team, bounced to the Rams with Fisher (and Foles), wound up with the Vikings in 2017 as the third-stringer for $2 million … and faced Foles for the NFC title last month and enters free agency next month.
Other 2012 class members:
- Brock Osweiler (second round, 57th, Broncos): Went 18 picks ahead of Russell Wilson, as teams admired him at 6-8 more than Wilson at 5-11. Got $37 million in guarantees from the Texans in 2016 after seven career starts. Texans gave the Browns extra picks to take him off their hands a year later. Browns paid $16 million to cut him loose before season began; Broncos re-signed him but had opposite of Foles effect (0-4 in his starts after his return).
- Ryan Lindley (sixth, 185th, Cardinals): Few quarterbacks, if any, became starters in a playoff game under more excruciating circumstances. Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton both were injured as 2014 in a season that had begun 9-1; it ended in a wild-card loss at Carolina in which Lindley and the offense gained 78 yards. Otherwise, he started six games, the last in 2015. Now helps train quarterback prospects for the draft: Jared Goff and Carson Wentz before, Luke Falk this year.
- Kellen Moore (undrafted, Lions): Never played in three years in Detroit, became Tony Romo’s backup in Dallas, broke his leg in training camp in 2016, allowing rookie Dak Prescott to slide a step up the depth chart. Didn’t play last year, now apparently is about to become the team’s 29-year-old quarterbacks coach.
