The NFL futures market has become one of the most popular niche markets in sports betting among professional gamblers and novices alike. Many die-hard football fans and knowledgeable bettors consider calculated futures betting a more favorable investment option than the stock market. If you do your research (or follow somebody who does), betting the 2022 over/under market on regular-season win totals — a far less popular but more lucrative avenue than, say, Super Bowl futures — you could make a ton of money.
Look no further, ladies and gentlemen. We have deep-dived into the full 2022 NFL schedule and run projections on each game using our advanced model. Since we use data and analysis to predict every single game, we feel confident in our ability to make educated guesses for every single team's win-loss record. We then compared our projected records to DraftKings' over/under win total listings, which allows us to recommend either betting or fading each team's total.
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Let's get to it and see which of the 32 teams can make you some money between now and the NFL playoffs. For each team's over/under, we'll provide a brief synopsis of the current state of the respective organization, as well as our projected record and our confidence in the over or under. Enjoy and good luck!
All win-loss over/under totals are from DraftKings.
Arizona Cardinals win total 2022: Over/under 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Our model projects that two NFC West teams will reach double-digit victories this season, but neither will hail from Arizona. Kyler Murray has demonstrated flashes of brilliance throughout his young career, but the concepts of health, pocket security, and full-season consistency always seem to rear their ugly heads for the QB. Stud wideout DeAndre Hopkins' six-game suspension and running back Chase Edmonds departing for Miami won't help matters, either — nor will the fact that the Cards have the second-hardest strength of schedule this season (opponents had a collective .543 winning percentage in 2021). This could be a make-or-break year for Kliff Kingsbury, who adds more questionable decisions to his track record every season. If Arizona's defense continues to regress and its offense once again cannot hold a candle to the Cali squads of the NFC, Kingsbury's seat may get hotter than the Grand Canyon in July.
Projected W-L record: 8-9
Best bet: UNDER 8.5 (-110)
Confidence level: 1/5 — too close for comfort.
Atlanta Falcons win total 2022: Over/under 5 (O: +125 | U: -145)
The Falcons just lost franchise QB and future Hall-of-Famer Matt Ryan to Indianapolis, and the wheels could completely come off the wagon early into 2022. Calvin Ridley remains under suspension for betting on games, leaving veteran QB Marcus Mariota with myriad young pass-catchers (led by WRs Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts). An abysmal offensive line and very shaky secondary make matters even dicier. A 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson is unlikely to sniff the career numbers he put up as a hybrid running back and wide receiver in '21, never mind save this team in '22. The UNDER is the play if you don't mind the hiked-up odds.
Projected W-L: 3-14
Best bet: UNDER 5 (-145)
Confidence level: 2/5 — we like the UNDER, but dislike the value.
Baltimore Ravens win total 2022: Over/under 9.5 (O: -160 | U: +130)
Baltimore had about as miserable a 2021 season as a team with its depth of talent could have. In the end, injuries played a more crucial role to its campaign than QB Lamar Jackson's legs did. If all goes well medically, we have the Ravens bouncing back this season, starting with three big AFC victories and hitting a few more small winning streaks throughout the campaign. A squad with Jackson and stud running back JK Dobbins will always make noise when healthy, as can a strong Baltimore defense led by future Hall-of-Fame coach John Harbaugh. Still, we don't love the -160 to bet on double-digit wins when egg-shell health plays such a crucial factor to this organization's fate each year.
Projected W-L (with health): 10-7
Best bet: OVER 9.5 (-160)
Confidence level: 1/5 — too much injury concern, too little value.
Buffalo Bills win total 2022: Over/under 11.5 (O: -140 | U: +120)
While practically every other roster in the AFC has undergone some kind of major shakeup, the Bills have become a pillar of stability. In fact, Buffalo could very well be significantly better than ever on both sides of the ball. QB Josh Allen is the leader in the preseason MVP clubhouse, and he now gets former Bills QB coach Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator. Jamison Crowder joins a receiver corps that features Gabe Davis and All-Pro Stefon Diggs, rookie James Cook seems like a perfect addition to a backfield that needed a jolt, and edge rusher Von Miller brings veteran leadership to an already-stout defense. Screw 12 wins out of 17 — this Buffalo squad can easily break its franchise record and reach 14.
Projected W-L: 14-3
Best bet: OVER 11.5 (-140)
Confidence level: 4/5 — it would be 3/5 if bookies bumped it up by one win.
Carolina Panthers win total 2022: Over/under 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
So many question marks in Carolina. Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold — will either revive their careers with the Panthers? Will Christian McCaffrey see the field for more than the five games he's averaged per season since 2019? Were D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson one-hit wonders, or is their greatest hits album yet to be released? Will rookie tackle Ikem Ekwonu save an otherwise-dreadful offensive line, which PFF ranked one of the worst in the NFL last season? Will Carolina be able to prevent yards and points in '22? The Panthers ranked No. 2 in yards allowed per game last year but No. 21 in scoring defense. That's too many question marks for an OVER, by our account. Our model projects Carolina in the range of tree-to-five wins.
Projected W-L: 3-14
Best bet: UNDER 6.5 (-110)
Confidence level: 3/5 — not enough trust in CMC's health or help.
Chicago Bears win total 2022: Over/under 6.5 (O: +150 | U: -190)
Here's a classic example of a sportsbook trying to lure action. DK knows full well that Chicago won't sniff seven wins, but the +150 OVER is vastly more welcoming than the -190 UNDER. But, come on, nobody in their right mind with even a shred of pro football knowledge would bet the Bears to win seven games. The Chi has brand spanking-new coaching and management, a second-year QB in Justin Fields, and very little help beyond wideout Darnell Mooney and running back David Montgomery. The offensive and defensive lines stink. Khalil Mack, Eddie Goldman, Bilal Nichols, and Akiem Hicks are all long gone. Grab your undies.
Projected W-L: 2-15
Best bet: UNDER 6.5 (-190)
Confidence level: 4/5 — I ain't afraid of no juice!
Cincinnati Bengals win total 2022: Over/under 10 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Oddsmakers must truly believe in the curse of the Super Bowl runners-up because +100 on the Bengals winning 11 games seems like a better gift than a birthday smoker for a dad (honey, if you're reading, this is the one). What are we missing here? Sure, Cincy has a tough schedule, but the positives outweigh the negatives since 2020 No. 1 pick and franchise QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals lost Super Bowl LVI by a field goal. The biggest factor: three new faces on the offensive line, which was one of the worst in the league last season (Joey B got sacked a league-most 51 times for a total loss of 370 yards). With pocket protection — and the continued improvements of stud second-year wideout Ja'Marr Chase and 1,000-yard receiver Tee Higgins — Burrow could emerge as an MVP candidate and the Bengals could cruise to their second-consecutive AFC North title.
Projected W-L: 12-5
Best bet: OVER 10
Confidence level: 5/5 — as confident as Joey Brr is of his coolness.
It was over when Joe Burrow arrived to Kansas City like this. pic.twitter.com/G75FlgLOu0
— Complex Sports (@ComplexSports) January 30, 2022
Cleveland Browns win total 2022: No line (Deshaun Watson)
Not surprisingly, DraftKings doesn't list an over/under for the Browns' 2022 regular-season record. Cleveland's entire fate hinges on the imminent suspension that will be handed to new franchise QB Deshaun Watson. I'm sorry to have to say it -- and I'd love to throw the Dawg Pound a proverbial bone -- but Cleveland fans will move this season to the trash as fast as an Ikea sponsored email. Baker Mayfield, after feeling understandably alienated, got moved to Carolina. Nick Chubb, the franchise RB, struggled last season without Mayfield under center. Pass-catching back Kareem Hunt and veteran wideout and new Brown Amari Cooper could also struggle with Jacoby Brissett leading Cleveland for half (or all) of the season. With a middle-of-the-pack defense and a flood of consternation surrounding its short-term future, no bet would be worth making on Cleveland's win total.
Projected W-L: 5-12
Best bet: No action
Confidence level: 0/5 — sometimes the best bet is the one that's never made.
Dallas Cowboys win total 2022: Over/under 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Here's my other early 5/5 bet — my favorite regular-season over/under out of the NFC, joining Cincinnati in the AFC. Dallas enjoys the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this season with its opponents possessing a collective 2021 winning percentage of just .462. QB Dak Prescott is healthy, in theory. Tony Pollard has emerged in the backfield as the lightning to Ezekiel Elliott's thunder. CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup might just be a top-five receiving duo in the league (Amari who?). And the superstardom of 2021 rookie linebacker Micah Parsons and the pick-drill Masterclass of Trevon Diggs helped this Cowboys defense go from awful to awesome in one short season. This could be the year. Put a big percentage of your total futures budget on this OVER. You can get a more detailed breakdown of Cowboys' future bets by clicking here.
Projected W-L: 13-4
Best bet: OVER 10 (-110)
Confidence level: 5/5 — as confident as Trevon Diggs' son Aaiden on camera.
Aaiden Diggs: The real MVP of last night's #HardKnocks 😂@TrevonDiggs pic.twitter.com/5SSn2VrD0Q
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) August 25, 2021
Denver Broncos win total 2022: Over/under 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Understandably, people are all over the Broncos this preseason. With Russell Wilson under center, Denver's offense could actualize success for the first full campaign since the Peyton Manning chapter in Mile High. The defense is already elite — No. 3 in points allowed in 2021 and No. 8 in total yards allowed — and the running game is as strong as ever. Second-year RB Javonte Williams and veteran back Melvin Gordon are both coming off 203-carry, 900-plus rushing yard seasons. If the Broncos' pass-catching corps can stay healthy and establish consistency this fall, maybe the Broncos are back in the dance for the first time since '15, but I'm not buying in.
Projected W-L: 9-8
Best bet: UNDER 10 (-110)
Confidence level: 1/5 — can't bet against Mr. Unlimited, can't bet on his receiving corps.
Detroit Lions win total 2022: Over/under 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Gotta love when you build a model and flesh out the entirety of an upcoming NFL season and your projections for most teams line up with the sportsbooks' over/under totals. In this case, we had Detroit winning seven games — which would be considered a massive success by Lions fans — and DK has Dan Campbell's squad at 6.5 on the O/U. We'll take it. Two things we like: one more year of experience in Motown for QB Jared Goff, who now gets to vibe with new coordinator Ben Johnson (previously the tight ends coach); and Detroit's superb 2022 NFL draft, potentially nabbing the best rookies on both sides of the ball in defensive end Aidan Hutchinson and wide receiver Jameson Williams. Add this talent infusion to a squad that already has studs at RB (D'Andre Swift), tight end (T.J. Hockenson), and receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown), and you have the makings of something really promising here. The Lions had the second-most covers against the spread last season — maybe they can turn some of those covers into straight-up wins. Maybe.
Projected W-L: 7-10
Best bet: OVER 6.5 (-120)
Confidence level: 2/5 — I like the Lions, but I don't love -120 on OVER 6.5 one season after they won three games.
Green Bay Packers win total 2022: Over/under 11 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Here's probably my least favorite OVER of all the above-average offenses defending divisional crowns. The Packers are coming off yet another strong campaign, with a 13-3 record that led the NFC thanks mostly to reigning back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers. But Green Bay notably enters 2022 without All-Pro wideout Davante Adams, Rodgers' favorite target since Jordy Nelson. Rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs could be day-one difference-makers, and Aaron Jones could return to the dominance he has enjoyed in Adams' absence for many years. Young third-down and goal-line back AJ Dillon could also play a bigger role in his third season. That's some big 'ifs' for a team with a listed total of 11. We like the Packers' QB, running game, offensive line, and defense, but we don't like betting on them to log 12 wins at -110.
Projected W-L: 11-6
Best bet: No action
Confidence level: 0/5 — too many variables, too little value. Find a book that has the total at 10.5 or lower.
Houston Texans win total 2022: Over/under 4.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
At this point, the only certainties in life are death, taxes, and the Texans finishing with four or fewer wins. Houston has done very little to address its misfortunes over the past couple seasons, and thus we have very little faith in Lovie Smith's ability to get this organization out of the proverbial dumpster. Five wins? That would be a wild success. Our model has the Texans winning four games, at most. The issues don't stop at QB, with Davis Mills and Kyle Allen leading the most uninspiring positional battle in pro sports. The Texans also can't run the ball, and they can't stop the run. Those facts still matter in today's NFL, and they are the main reasons why Houston is such a terrible team.
Projected W-L: 2-15
Best bet: UNDER 4.5 (-120)
Confidence level: 2/5 — don't bet on how bad a trash can will stink during a heat wave, and run the risk of being upset when it doesn't end up stinking quite badly enough.
Indianapolis Colts win total 2022: Over/under 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Here's another over/under that seems to yield very little value. We love watching Jonathan Taylor run like Forrest Gump with a Ford F-1 on his tail, and Matt Ryan under center could very well produce positive results for Indy's passing game. The addition of Stephon Gilmore also helps this already stout defense, too. However, even in the AFC South, it's hard to fall in love with the Colts' OVER at 10. They draw the NFC East this season (including one game in Dallas), and also have away games in New England, Minnesota, Denver, and Las Vegas. Indy can and should make the playoffs, but consider passing on 11 games at -105.
Projected W-L: 10-7
Best bet: No action
Confidence level: 0/5 — I'd rather bet on Taylor -115 to net OVER 1,450.5 rushing yards.
Jacksonville Jaguars win total 2022: Over/under 6.5 (O: +110 | U: -130)
The Jaguars will most likely feel much better about themselves than they did in 2021 with the ghost of Urban Meyer no longer haunting an NFL locker room, but rebuilding a franchise is a marathon, not a sprint. Trevor Lawrence could very well bounce back from a frustrating rookie season, especially now that he gets stud running back (and T-Law's college teammate) Travis Etienne Jr. back in action after a Lisfranc injury kept him from his rookie campaign. But plenty of problems remain. The Jags had one of the worst offensive lines last season, and then their best offensive lineman (center Brandon Linder) retired. Jacksonville also struggled defensively, allowing the fifth-most points in the league while maintaining the worst takeaway rate. Stud rookies Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd will help this team see an earlier light at the end of the tunnel of suck, but don't expect immediate Micah Parsons-caliber impact.
Projected W-L: 3-14
Best bet: UNDER 6.5 (-130)
Confidence level: 3/5 — sure feels like seven wins is a dream for this squad.
Kansas City Chiefs win total 2022: Over/under 10.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Kansas City's UNDER will be a popular bet this season, partly because lots of people hate the Chiefs and partly because Patrick Mahomes will be without new Dolphin Tyreek Hill for the first time in his career. However, pump the breaks on KC suddenly plummeting in the power rankings. Last I checked, Mahomes is still a dynamic NFL talent with a plethora of offensive options at his disposal. That includes a strong offensive line, the best pass-catching tight end in football in Travis Kelce, a perennially underrated running back in Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and a very talented and very fast group of receivers. As long as Kansas City's defense can survive without Tyrann Mathieu, this squad should put up 12-plus wins for the fifth straight season.
Projected W-L: 12-5
Best bet: OVER 10.5 (-120)
Confidence level: 4/5 — people are sleeping on Mahomes, in both the fantasy and betting worlds. Capitalize!
Las Vegas Raiders win total 2022: Over/under 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +110)
It appears the sportsbooks don't believe in Josh McDaniels in his second stint as an NFL head coach. The former Broncos head coach and long-time Patriots offensive coordinator begins anew in Vegas, where he benefits from the services of All-Pro wideout and former Packer Davante Adams. Life is good! The Raiders also feature one of the premier pass-catching tight ends in Darren Waller, a strong running back room, and elite slot receiver Hunter Renfrow. Sure, Vegas has some holes on defense and on the offensive line -- and Derek Carr can be a frustrating QB to root for at times -- but double-digit wins seems likely, so 8.5 feels like charity.
Projected W-L: 11-6
Best bet: OVER 8.5 (-130)
Confidence level: 5/5 — you can do it, McDaniels. Just no victory laps after you beat New England this time, please.
Los Angeles Chargers win total 2022: Over/under 10 (O: -140 | U: +120)
The Chargers return every major offensive weapon from a strong 2021 campaign in which they ranked top five in both points and total yards. Indeed, young franchise QB Justin Herbert should continue to ascend with stud receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, not to mention beast hybrid back Austin Ekeler. L.A. really made a splash to improve its defense, which allowed the fourth-most points and ranked in the bottom 10 in yards allowed last season. Highlighting those additions is long-time Bears edge rusher Khalil Mack and stud former Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson. Bet on the Bolts here.
Projected W-L: 13-4
Best bet: OVER 10 (-140)
Confidence level: 4/5 — this squad could easily make the biggest year-to-year leap in the NFL.
Los Angeles Rams win total 2022: Over/under 10.5 (O: +105 | U: -125)
It seems odd that the Rams arguably got better since winning the Super Bowl less than seven months ago, and yet they are listed at plus-odds to win 11 games this season. Sure, I'll take that hook, line, and sinker. Former Bears receiver Allen Robinson provides an upgrade over the departed Robert Woods (now a Titan). Bobby Wagner provides a massive upgrade at linebacker, minimizing the hurt from the departure of edge rusher Von Miller to Buffalo. This squad is primed to make a run at becoming the first team since the '04 Patriots to win back-to-back Lombardis. I love the OVER here.
Projected W-L: 14-3
Best bet: OVER 10.5 (+105)
Confidence level: 5/5 — as sure as Bobby Axelrod during a negotiation.
Miami Dolphins win total 2022: Over/under 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Expectations are high in South Beach this season with the Dolphins adding blazing-fast former Chief Tyreek Hill, dual-purpose back Chase Edmonds, and speeding-bullet back Raheem Mostert. Oddsmakers are smart to temper those expectations, as success in the modern iteration of the NFL is measured largely by efficacy at quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are not bad QBs, but it's yet to be determined if they are effective QBs on upper-echelon teams. Well, the OVER seems like a good bet here. Tua is 13-8 as a starter in his two active professional years. If he stays on the field, he should lead Miami to a 10-win playoff season.
Projected W-L: 10-7
Best bet: OVER 9 (+100)
Confidence level: 5/5 — plus-odds on double-digit wins for a squad that just finished 9-8 and then added Hill? Yes, please.
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Minnesota Vikings win total 2022: Over/under 9 (O: -125 | U: +105)
There's a lot to love about the Vikings this year, and our model actually has them finishing two wins above their listed over/under. Justin Jefferson continues to evolve as one of the best receivers in football, while the ageless Adam Thielen produces on the opposite side. Dalvin Cook is as electric as running backs come when he's healthy, but he's never surpassed 14 games in a season. Danielle Hunter, Za'Darius Smith, Eric Hendricks, Jordan Hicks, Patrick Peterson, and Harrison Smith could easily vault this defense into top-10 territory if all (or most) stay healthy. The OVER is a bit of a gamble, but in my eyes, it's a good one.
Projected W-L: 11-6
Best bet: OVER (-125)
Confidence level: 4/5 — about as intriguing as a -125 OVER in a futures bet gets.
New England Patriots win total 2022: Over/under 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +105)
Admittedly, my model and my initial belief in how this season would go for the Patriots wavered. I told my fellow Massachusetts-native buddies a couple of months ago that New England will be lucky to finish above .500 with its schedule. The Dolphins got better. The Jets got better. The Bills are the biggest powerhouse in the NFL. The Pats travel to Green Bay, Minnesota, Arizona, and Las Vegas this season. It won't be easy with Mac Jones under center in his second year as a pro, and several key defensive players leaving for greener pastures this offseason. Bill Belichick always finds a way to get his team where it needs to be to compete, though. Thus, we're recommending the OVER here, although I won't actually bet on this one because it feels like a risk.
Projected W-L: 10-7
Best bet: OVER 8.5 (-125)
Confidence level: 2/5 — tough to have huge confidence with the key departures.
New Orleans Saints win total 2022: Over/under 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Here's another squad that always defies expectations and manages to compete regardless of personnel changes. New Orleans almost always fields a strong defense, and now gets the services of elite safety Tyrann Mathieu. Things will look even more promising for veteran QB Jameis Winston and the Saints if stud back Alvin Kamara avoids suspension and former All-Pro wideout Michael Thomas finally returns from a seemingly-endless injury battle. Who knows when it comes to the Who Dat boys!?
Projected W-L: 9-8
Best bet: OVER 8.5 (-105)
Confidence level: 3/5 — if the Saints can ground-and-pound — and continue to make stops — nine wins is very doable.
New York Giants win total 2022: Over/under 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)
This could be the last hurrah for QB Daniel Jones, who has always seemed to do just enough on the field to maintain his role as leader of the G-Men. Saquon Barkley doesn't have much run left on his leash either. Maybe it's New England bias against New York, but I just can't imagine this organization even sniffing eight wins. They only won four games in '21, their O-line and defense are still "meh," at best, and their pass-catching options continue to underwhelm. Unlike Daniel Jones in a collapsing pocket, PASS!
Projected W-L: 5-12
Best bet: UNDER 7 (-110)
Confidence level: 5/5 — just because it's boring doesn't mean it's a poor bet.
New York Jets win total 2022: Over/under 5.5 (O: -160 | U: -130)
Now this is a much more fitting over/under for a New York football team. Gang Green improved mightily this offseason, but we are already hearing multiple troubling reports out of Jets camp. First, it was offensive tackle Mekhi Becton fracturing his kneecap, a terrible turn of events for promising rookie running back Breece Hall. Then we heard Zach Wilson suffered a non-contact injury, which Jets Nation was relieved to ultimately hear was not as serious as initial reports suggested. But still, woof! The Jets could make a leap from their 4-13 2021 if all goes well and everyone stays healthy, but they could just as well finish 4-13 again. Again, rebuilds are marathons, not sprints.
Projected W-L: 4-13
Best bet: UNDER 5.5 (-130)
Confidence level: 1/5 — too many variables and too much uncertainty around this team.
Philadelphia Eagles win total 2022: Over/under 9.5 (O: -150 | U: +125)
At first, our model projected the Eagles at 12-5, so we ran it again to arrive at 11-6. What can we say — it's difficult to imagine QB Jalen Hurts, RB Miles Sanders, and WR A.J. Brown all staying healthy for 17 games. If they do, watch out now. That's an extremely talented nucleus that could unlock the cheat codes known as WR DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert. This squad is built to win as long as Hurts stays focused and avoids risky decisions. Philly has a great offensive line, a much-improved defense, and the second-easiest strength of schedule this season. Barring injuries, 10 wins seems like a given, and our model seems to think that's selling the Eagles short.
Projected W-L: 11-6
Best bet: OVER 9.5 (-150)
Confidence level: 4/5 — I'd consider betting Philly's OVER at 10.5 for plus odds.
Pittsburgh Steelers win total 2022: Over/under 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Pittsburgh garners a ton of respect from the bookmakers each year, probably because Mike Tomlin has never overseen a losing season in his 15 years as the Steelers head coach. However, you might have a problem if you bet the OVER of 7.5 just to get the plus-odds here. Mitch Trubisky is not an effective NFL QB; Pittsburgh fields one of the worst O-lines in football; and the Steelers defense ranked 22nd in points allowed last season. Stud second-year RB Najee Harris can't be a miracle worker. Tomlin's first losing sub-.500 season is upon us.
Projected W-L: 4-13
Best bet: UNDER 7.5 (-120)
Confidence level: 5/5 — lose, get a good draft pick, and rebuild. Everybody's gotta lose sometime.
San Francisco 49ers win total 2022: Over/under 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
The 49ers are one of the most difficult teams to project this season, hence their O/U each basically standing as a pick 'em. We know full well that San Francisco's defense is perennially solid behind DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner, having ranked in the top five in points allowed last season. When healthy, the Niners almost always maintain one of the best running games in the NFL, too. Combine those factors with the pass-catching ability of tight end George Kittle and the electric playmaking of wideout Deebo Samuel, and it's easy to see why San Francisco made the NFC Championship in '21. The wild card this season is Trey Lance. He could be a greater version of Kyler Murray in Kyle Shanahan's offense, or he could be Justin Fields in 2021. I think he's special, and our model surely reflects that. Cross those fingers on the injury front.
Projected W-L: 11-6
Best bet: OVER 10 (-110)
Confidence level: 3/5 — either Lance will make us dance, or we'll be sobbing to Sarah McLaughlin songs. Jimmy G won't be here in a month, and Nate Sudfeld won't bail anyone out.
Seattle Seahawks win total 2022: Over/under 5.5 (O: -140 | U: +120)
Life after Russell Wilson could be a bit rough for a while in Seattle. Geno Smith and Drew Lock are decent QBs, but they will learn in short order what kind of hellish situation Mr. Unlimited was dealing with for so many years. The Seahawks never seem to address their issues at offensive line, and they have lost their identity as a defense. These are fates that can't be reversed by the athleticism of wideouts Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf or the rushing upside of rookie Kenneth Walker. When you subtract a franchise QB, you must add the crucial elements you've been missing to help bridge the gap. Pete Carroll and company have failed to do that, and thus they will fail to reach five wins this season.
Projected W-L: 4-13
Best bet: UNDER 5.5 (+120)
Confidence level: 4/5 — six wins would absolutely shock me. Do Seahawks fans even want this squad to win six games!?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers win total 2022: Over/under 11.5 (O: +110 | U: -130)
Tom Brady is back again, with the seven-time champion weeks removed from turning 45. He'll be without BFF tight end Rob Gronkowski and drama queen wideout Antonio Brown, but he does now enjoy the services of former Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph and former All-Pro receiver Julio Jones. When you're the GOAT, you get the greenest of grass. If stud slot receiver Chris Godwin plays 90-plus percent of this season and wideout Mike Evans stays healthy, there's no reason to think Tampa Bay won't win this division once again under Brady. The Bucs defense remains solid, and Bruce Arians and the management team had a good draft. The coaching continuity is there, with former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles getting the bump to head coach and Byron Leftwich staying on as offensive coordinator. Ho-hum, another 12-win season for Tom Terrific. Considering the state of the NFC South, it's about as easy a call as we have to make this entire column.
Projected W-L: 12-5
Best bet: OVER 11.5 (+110)
Confidence level: 5/5 — the 'cliff' doesn't exist with Tom Brady, and parity doesn't exist in this division. Capitalize on these bizarre plus-odds while you can.
Tennessee Titans win total 2022: Over/under 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
All is well in Tennessee, with King Henry returning to his court after a broken bone in his foot sidelined him for nine games in 2021. Expect the Titans to go right back to a Henry-fueled offense, especially since elite wideout A.J. Brown departed for Philly. The areas of concern: Tennessee's offensive line looks like one of the worst in the NFL, and the Titans' young secondary could be a wild card. Oh, and Ryan Tannehill is 34 and relying on oft-injured veteran Robert Woods and rookie Treylon Burks at wide receiver. Our model has Tennessee winning the AFC South at 11-6, but I would hesitate to even bet the Titans to win 10 this year at -105.
Projected W-L: 11-6
Best bet: OVER 9 (-105)
Confidence level: 2/5 — too much uncertainty with Henry coming off injury and Brown gone.
Washington Commanders win total 2022: Over/under 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Last and not quite least, the Commanders start anew at QB (again), this time with former Eagle and Colt Carson Wentz. Plenty of offensive talent exists on this team with wideout Terry McLaurin, second-year back Antonio Gibson, and tight end Logan Thomas all above average at their respective positions. Plenty of question marks remain, namely Wentz's ability to stay healthy, the O-line's ability to protect him, and Washington's young defense's ability to bounce back after a brutal 2021 campaign. D.C. will be happy to pull down seven Ws again, but there's a reason why the OVER is listed at +100 here.
Projected W-L: 6-11
Best bet: UNDER 8 (-120)
Confidence level: 4/5 — even if they take a step forward, it's silly to expect a two-win jump to 9-8.
Full model results for every scheduled NFL game 2022
