The Buccaneers are looking for a third consecutive NFC South title. With their Week 15 upset over the Packers in Lambeau Field, they're just three games away from claiming it.
Tampa Bay (7-7) evened its record by beating Green Bay. That was huge for the Buccaneers in staying ahead of the second-place Saints (7-7), who kept pace by routing the Giants at home. Both the Bucs and Saints got a big break when the third-place Falcons (6-8) fell on the road to the cellar-dwelling Panthers (2-12).
There are three games left to determine who will make the NFC playoffs as the No. 4 seed with a limited chance of falling back on a wild-card berth.
Here's breaking down the rest of the division race:
NFC South standings, playoff picture
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
The Buccaneers have the same overall record as the Saints, but they also have the head-to-head tiebreaker from winning at New Orleans in Week 4. The Bucs also have a superior division record (3-1) than the Saints (2-2).
The Buccaneers have a mixed bag of closing games. They get the AFC South-leading Jaguars first at home in Week 16. They play at the Panthers to close the season in Week 18. But in between, it's the big one, hosting the Saints in a series rematch. The Bucs can likely afford to lose to the Jaguars if they win the final two games to go 5-1 in the division and sweep the Saints.
2. New Orleans Saints (7-7)
The Saints go from a favourable home matchup with the Giants to face the NFC wild-card challenging Rams on the road, on a short week (Thursday night) in Week 16. They stay on the road for that Week 17 game at Tampa Bay before finishing with Atlanta at home.
There's a better chance for the Saints to win out than the Buccaneers. They can also afford to lose once outside of the division, but they really need to win at least the last two games. The Saints than can finish 2-1, get to nine wins and have a shot of either finishing one game ahead of the Buccaneers or even and getting the tiebreaker.
3. Atlanta Falcons (6-8)
The Falcons need to make up one game now on two teams. They have a 3-2 record in division play, with their final NFC South game set for New Orleans in Week 18. The Falcons also beat the Saints in the first meeting, Week 12 in Atlanta.
Before the rematch, the Falcons have their hands full with the AFC wild-card positioned Colts (8-6) at home in Week 16 and then the NFC spoiler-minded Bears (5-9) in Chicago in Week 17. The Falcons are an above-average home team, but they are not that good on the road or outside of the NFC. The Falcons are looking at 1-2 at best or 0-3 at worst.
4. Carolina Panthers (2-12)
The Panthers already played a huge part in the race by getting their first division win over the season vs. the Falcons. They can only affect it on more time, at home in Week 18 vs. the Buccaneers.
NFC South final record predictions
1. Buccaneers (9-8)
2. Saints (8-9)
3. Falcons (6-11)
4. Panthers (2-15)
Believe it or not, this would give the Buccaneers a better division-winning record in the first season with Baker Mayfield at QB than in the final season with Tom Brady at QB. The Saints were the clear preseason favourites, while the Falcons were the sleepers and the Panthers were the expected also-rans. Tampa Bay pulling this off with their big offensive change and defensive injuries will be one of the season's most impressive feats.
