Nothing in the NFC South is playing out how many thought it would.
The Falcons and Panthers aren't nearly as bad as they were projected to be leading into this season, the Saints are riding the wave of mediocrity behind Andy Dalton, and the Buccaneers -- thought to be the runaway best team in the division -- are currently in a playoff spot with a sub-.500 record.
The division is aggressively average, which in football terms, is bad. All four teams have between five and six wins, with the Buccaneers being the kings of Trash Mountain at 6-8.
In the NFL, of course, the preseason goal is always: "Make the playoffs, see what happens." That's what these teams are trying to do. But heading into Week 16, none of them look ready to host a playoff game. Tom Brady came out of retirement to lead this team, has since gotten a divorce and led a team mired by injuries. Suffice to say, things haven't gone according to plan.
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Just how close are the Buccaneers to missing the postseason at this point? Here are the NFC South standings and how the Bucs fare in tiebreakers.
NFC South standings
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 6-8
Division record: 3-1
Games remaining: Cardinals, Panthers, Falcons
The Buccaneers haven't had the season they expected this year. Even after Brady retired, the roster in place seemed strong. When he returned, optimism skyrocketed.
But something has just been off with this team all season. The defense hasn't impressed, the offense has sputtered for long periods of time, and they've lost a few bad games.
With that being said, the Buccaneers currently hold head-to-head tiebreakers against the Saints and Falcons, with another game against the Panthers and Falcons pending. The Panthers beat the Buccaneers 21-3 earlier this season, but if they can win those last two games, they'll find themselves in good shape in the division even if they drop a game to the Cardinals. A 5-1 divisional record would give them a leg up in the second tiebreaker, something that would only apply against the Panthers.
Playoff Probability: 68%
2. Carolina Panthers
Record: 6-9
Division record: 3-1
Games remaining: Buccaneers, Saints
A surprising team, to be sure, the Panthers find themselves just a half-game out of the division lead. Their win over the Lions Saturday means they could be playing for rights to the top of the South in Week 17 depending on the Week 18 outcome.
After Matt Rhule was fired, Steve Wilks has swooped in and led the Panthers to a 4-5 record. While not jaw-dropping on its own, the fact it's been done with a combination of Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold has some wondering if it could earn Wilks the job.
For the Panthers, the calling card has been defense. Though still a highly-flawed team, they have scratched and clawed their way to multiple wins. Furthermore, their division record could help them as well in potential tiebreakers.
Playoff Probability: 25%
3. New Orleans Saints
Record: 6-9
Division record: 2-3
Games remaining: Eagles, Panthers
When two teams are 3-1 in the division, dollars to donuts two more are struggling. The Saints have found themselves at 6-9, tied with the Panthers in record, but considerably behind in playoff contention due to divisional play.
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With Andy Dalton at the helm, the Saints have struggled for long stretches this season. However, thanks to a division in which every team can say the same, they find themselves a game out of the playoffs (although it's effectively two games as they miss tiebreakers with both the Buccaneers via head to head and the Panthers with division records, regardless of Week 18's outcome).
Playoff Probability: 9%
4. Atlanta Falcons
Record: 5-10
Division record: 1-4
Games remaining: Cardinals, Buccaneers
The Falcons have just one divisional win on the season, a victory over the Panthers, but a split in that series means they lose the tiebreaker to the entire NFC South.
With a loss to the Ravens on Saturday, Atlanta was eliminated from playoff contention.
Despite things likely not unfolding their way this season, there is cause for optimism in Atlanta barring a massive regression next season.
Playoff Probability: 0%
