To Alex Smith: Sorry, you're not quite a top-tier quarterback. To Dak Prescott: Nice try, rookie, but at least we like your future. To Brock Osweiler: Three interceptions in Foxboro for the $37 million man? Ouch. To Russell Wilson: Get a decent offensive line, and perhaps you’ll reclaim a spot among the NFL’s final four.
As the Patriots, Steelers, Falcons and Packers head into their pressure-filled conference championship games, it's no surprise that the last four quarterbacks standing are elite veterans who are among the best in the league.
Three of them — Tom Brady (age 39), Ben Roethlisberger (34) and Aaron Rodgers (33) — are past Super Bowl champions, and all three likely are Hall of Fame-bound. The fourth and youngest, 31-year-old Matt Ryan, might be the league MVP this season and has plenty of time to fortify his Canton resume.
The presence of these QBs in this week's title games reinforces what we've always known: In a quarterback-driven NFL, you'd better have an elite signal-caller if you ever want to sniff the Super Bowl.
That means teams like the Jets, Bears, Browns, Jaguars, Texans and Broncos better get to work.
The reason? It takes a higher level of talent and confidence for quarterbacks to navigate the intense pressure cooker they'll face with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
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We know Brady, Roethlisberger and Rodgers are up to the challenge. Ryan has to prove he's ready now, having fallen short in a 2012 home loss to the 49ers in which he committed two costly turnovers. This time he'll have to out-play the hottest quarterback in the league.
I've always believed conference championship games are the toughest to win. My Vikings and Titans teams went to six conference title games and lost four times. Those defeats were the most agonizing of my NFL management career, especially the Vikings’ overtime loss to the Falcons that ended our 15-1 season in 1998, which had earned us the NFC’s top seed.
Losing in two Super Bowls was easier. At least we got to the big game.
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The four remaining teams will have up to eight staff members in Houston this week to prepare for their possible Super Bowl trips. They’ll check out hotels, meeting rooms, practice facilities and computer hook-ups, and they’ll work on their ticket allocations and distribution plan.
Of course, the logistical prep work could be all for naught. Trust me — it's crushing to everyone in the organization when that happens as opposed to the exhilaration of winning the conference and heading to the Super Bowl with your team, family and closest friends.
Having a quarterback like Brady, Roethlisberger, Rodgers or Ryan to lead your team is most comforting. But the prospect of having to beat one is very disconcerting.
All of us in the Vikings organization felt great knowing we had a seasoned, All-Pro quarterback with loads of playoff experience in 36-year-old Fran Tarkenton to lead us in frigid Met Stadium against the Los Angeles Rams in the 1976 NFC championship. Sir Francis, as we called him, got the job done, and we were on our way to Super Bowl XI at the Rose Bowl.
It was different with the Titans in 1999, with a 26-year-old Steve McNair playing his first AFC title game, in Jacksonville against the top-seeded Jaguars.
But Steve was on the cusp of becoming an elite quarterback, and he was a supremely confident player who knew we already had beaten the Jaguars twice during the regular season. His positive vibes carried over to his teammates, and he led the way in a convincing win that sent us to Super Bowl XXXIV against the Rams.
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There's no shortage of self-belief among this year's final four quarterbacks. But I have to favor the scorching-hot player who has been there against the opponent who has not. So I expect Rodgers and the Packers to win a shootout over Ryan and the Falcons.
The AFC game also should be a thriller; a defensive mastermind in Bill Belichick trying to control Pittsburgh's Killer B’s, Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. Brady will be peeking over his shoulder at a fellow late-30s player in James Harrison, who has re-channeled his NFL defensive player of the year form from eight years ago.
Pittsburgh has won nine straight games, while New England is on an eight-game winning streak. After the Patriots’ uneven performance against the Texans, I have a hunch that this is the week Brady and the Pats finally can't overcome the loss of their best receiver and key run blocker in tight end Rob Gronkowski.
Going into the best Sunday of the NFL season, we know two things for certain: It will be a feast for football fans who love to watch star quarterbacks in big games, and regardless of who wins, two great quarterbacks will be leading their teams on Super Sunday.
Jeff Diamond is the former president of the Titans and the former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
