Every NFL season usually features at least one overachieving double-digit winner from the previous year that comes crashing back to earth the next.
The 2016 New York Jets are the latest example.
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Now, it’s one thing to lose with a young squad that inspires hope for the future. It’s a whole other story when failure comes with a geriatric roster (by NFL terms) that needs significant rebuilding.
This is where the Jets are following Monday night’s 28-3 road loss to Arizona.
There’s a 33-year-old quarterback — Ryan Fitzpatrick — on the brink of losing his starting job.
A 32-year-old wide receiver — Brandon Marshall — whose stats have plummeted from last season.
A 31-year-old cornerback — Darrelle Revis — who is no longer a "shutdown" defender in coverage even though he’s being paid an elite-level salary.
A 30-year-old running back — Matt Forte — who has become an afterthought in the offense after a strong start.
There’s a mediocre offensive line. A modern-day passing offense that completely ignores the tight end. A defense equally inept in stopping the run and pass.
To put this in Gang Green terms ...
J-E-T-S: MESS! MESS! MESS!
And the clean-up won’t be easy.
The biggest problem is the same one that has haunted the Jets since Joe Namath’s heyday almost a half-century ago — quarterbacking.
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Fitzpatrick posted the best season of his well-traveled NFL career in 2015 with career-highs in touchdowns (31) and passing yards (3,905) while guiding the Jets to a 10-6 record. But when the Jets needed him the most, Fitzpatrick blew it. He tossed three interceptions during a Week 17 loss at Buffalo that kept New York from reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2010.
That showing, combined with projections of his future performance, dissuaded other potential suitors — including the QB-starved Denver Broncos — from pursuing Fitzpatrick as a free agent. The Jets made a tepid contract offer that turned off Fitz and created a standoff. While both sides were waiting for the other to blink, New York gave Geno Smith every opportunity to cement himself as Fitzpatrick’s replacement during the offseason.
Smith didn’t, which led to the Jets re-signing Fitzpatrick to a one-year, $12 million contract as training camp opened. The belief was that he could again work some "Fitz-magic" to help make New York competitive enough to challenge New England for AFC supremacy.
So far, the investment in Fitzpatrick has produced 11 interceptions, five touchdown passes, a 57-percent completion percentage and a 1-5 starting record. Jets coach Todd Bowles finally had enough in the fourth quarter Monday night, yanking Fitzpatrick in favor of Smith.
Once again, Smith failed to impress enough to knock Fitzpatrick from his starting spot Sunday against visiting Baltimore. That move could be coming soon enough. Or maybe the Jets will pull the plug entirely on the 2016 campaign once officially out of playoff contention and insert one of two young passers (Bryce Petty or rookie Christian Hackenberg) with an eye ahead toward next season and beyond.
Only two teams in NFL history — the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs and 1970 Cincinnati Bengals — have overcome a 1-5 start to reach the postseason. There’s little reason to believe the Jets will become the third.
The bigger issue then becomes how gloomy 2017 looks, as well.
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The Jets currently field the NFL’s second-oldest starting offense behind Arizona’s. Past the uncertainty at quarterback, key skill-position players like Forte and Marshall will be a year older and can’t be expected to produce like in their prime. The same goes for inside linebacker David Harris (33) and center Nick Mangold (32).
With a $13 million salary and $2 million roster bonus, Revis is almost certainly a goner in the offseason unless he agrees to a pay reduction and/or potential move to safety now that he can’t keep up with top wide receivers in single coverage. There is no heir apparent waiting in the wings as New York’s next top cornerback, either, because of the poor drafts from earlier this decade (2013 first-rounder Dee Milliner being the biggest whiff).
Since his arrival during the 2015 offseason, Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan has built this club in win-now mode. The Jets aren’t winning. So now what?
More misery as the feel-good memories of last season continue to fade.
Alex Marvez can be heard from 7 to 11 p.m. ET Tuesday night on SiriusXM NFL Radio.
