Alabama probably will shut down Leonard Fournette again and beat LSU for a sixth consecutive time Saturday. But Fournette probably (easily) will outrush the Crimson Tide's running back products in the NFL.
Although the impact of Nick Saban's defensive standouts can be felt around the entire league, there’s no question Baton Rouge boasts the better active pro rushers.
MORE: Week 10 College Football Picks
Considering the lofty pedigree of the Saban-era backs from 'Bama, they have been mostly huge disappointments in the NFL. Meanwhile, LSU has seen its far less touted backs overachieve. And the Tide have hit a new low this season.
Eddie Lacy was still working his way out of the doghouse in Green Bay when he went down with an ankle injury. Mark Ingram got benched in New Orleans after fumbles piled on top of a plodding season. T.J. Yeldon is doing his best Trent Richardson impression in Jacksonville. Kenyan Drake can’t even get on the field in Miami.
At this point, it's pretty much all on Derrick Henry, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, to carry the flag when he gets opportunities for regular touches. For now, though, he’s a rookie Titans back struggling to cut into DeMarco Murray's workload.
Before Fournette, and before coach Les Miles was let go this year, these were the backs from his recruiting classes to have notable NFL careers: Stevan Ridley, Jeremy Hill, Spencer Ware and Alfred Blue.
Ridley, signed by the Falcons for insurance last week, is a wash vs. Richardson, a free agent. They both had one good season, 2012, in the NFL.
Taking them out of the equation, here’s how the numbers look in 2016.
Alabama's NFL RBs in 2016:
— Lacy: 71 carries, 360 yards; four catches, 28 yards
— Ingram: 89 carries, 338 yards, TD; 22 catches, 154 yards, two TDs
— Yeldon: 63 carries, 220 yards, TD; 24 catches, 142 yards
— Henry: 53 carries, 221 yards, TD; nine catches, 107 yards
— Drake: 15 carries, 68 yards, TD; six catches, 33 yards
— Total: 291 carries, 1,207 yards (4.1 ypc), four TDs; 89 catches, 464 yards, two TDs
LSU's NFL RBs in 2016:
— Hill: 104 carries, 515 yards, five TDs; seven catches, 61 yards
— Ware: 102 carries, 511 yards, two TDs; 17 catches, 313 yards, TD
— Blue: 39 carries, 202 yards; one catch, 4 yards
— Total: 245 carries, 1,228 yards (5.0 ypc), seven TDs; 25 catches, 378 yards, TD
It’s interesting how the sample sizes are somewhat similar, and it’s clear the trio from the Tigers trumps the five from the Tide. Then you consider Hill is in a timeshare, Ware is a replacement workhorse and Blue is a pure backup.
Lacy and Ingram were tabbed for big workloads but couldn’t handle them. Yeldon had a backfield all to himself early, but he has sputtered into his split with Chris Ivory. Drake was too nicked to take advantage of what once was a wide-open committee. Henry hasn’t been trusted as more than a change of pace.
There are other factors, such as quality of blocking and balance of passing games. Lacy’s Packers and Ingram’s Saints went into the season with top-rated lines and elite QBs. Yeldon and Drake have lacked anything close to that combination. Henry has a great young line but lacks the opportunity.
MORE: Week 9 NFL Kickoff: A look ahead
Among the LSU guys, only Hill went in with a reliable, healthy line, but the Bengals have struggled more than expected up front. Ware (Chiefs) and Blue (Texans) have each worked with reshuffled, banged-up blockers playing off limited passing offenses.
In college, Alabama has consistently had the better run-blocking group compared to that of LSU. Tide backs, however, have tended to suffer a lot of wear and tear through power running. They are known for absorbing more contact with that higher volume. Although 'Bama has mixed a couple of those backs in various combinations, consider that Hill, Ware and Blue were all once part of a five-man committee in 2012. The fresher legs are paying off now.
And that's the one concern for Fournette. He got 300 carries last season and is getting a lot of touches again in 2016 despite an ankle injury that caused him to miss three games.
Looking at the way HIll and Ware have run at times in relation to the others this season, they've shown explosive bursts to go along with tough yards between the tackles. Fournette can Geaux even further with that style as an unquestioned immediate feature back, a la Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott in the preceding drafts.
Fournette probably will leave LSU early without a Heisman, further hurt by being rendered a limited factor against the Tide. But he’s built to keep the Tigers rolling as the more efficient RB U in the NFL.
