To understand the magnitude of the Week 1 quarterback matchup between Chicago's Justin Fields and Green Bay's Jordan Love, it's best to travel back to Nov. 22, 1992.
That was Brett Favre's first start at Soldier Field. The Bears had a 81-57 lead in the NFL's oldest rivalry. Favre led the Packers to an ugly 17-3 victory, and that marked the start of a shift in the rivalry.
Favre compiled a 22-10 against the Bears from 1992-2007. When Favre left for New York, Aaron Rodgers made the problem worse. Rodgers went 24-5 against Chicago from 2008-22 and put the signature on that run by screaming "I still own you" in the end zone after a fourth-quarter touchdown at Solider Field in 2021.
The Bears sifted through 36 different starting quarterbacks in the same stretch. Green Bay leads the all-time series 105-95-1 and hold an eight-game winning streak against the Bears. Quarterbacks – or lack thereof – have defined this rivalry since 1992.
Will this be the next shift? Or will it be more of the same?
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Fields – the No. 11 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft – has more talent around him in Chicago and a full-fledged breakout season is expected. Love – the No 26 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft – takes over after the trade that sent Rodgers to the New York Jets. A strong preseason has changed the narrative on how rough that transition might be.
Will the first year of the rivalry "A.R." – After Rodgers – be the shift that favors Fields? Will Love be the Bears' next worst nightmare? This is the magnitude of the moment.
Tom Waddle, co-host of "Waddle and Silvy" and a football analyst for WLS-TV in Chicago, played six seasons for the Bears from 1989-94. He spelled out what is on the line in Week 1.
"There are a lot of Bears fans that have been dancing on the Packers' quarterback grave for the last several months thinking this is going to be a disaster for them," Waddle told Sporting News. "So, if Jordan Love and the Packers come to town in Week 1 and he has a game and the Packers leave with a W, there will be a somber feeling that will cut across this part of the country."
Jordan Love expectations for 2023
Packers Radio Network color commentator Larry McCarren knows the rivalry with the Bears. He played center for Green Bay from 1973-84 – a stretch where the Bears had a 13-9 advantage. McCarren watched with increasing curiosity as the narrative around Love changed during training camp.
"I think nationally there was at best, a lot of, 'Wait and see,'" McCarren said. "I think his performance during the preseason has created a lot of positive vibes and people are starting to say, 'Hey, the Packers might be pretty good after all.'"
Love's first start against the Chiefs on Nov. 7, 2021 was not pretty. He finished 19 of 34 for 190 yards, a TD and an interception. Love also took over for an injured Rodgers against the Eagles on Nov. 7, 2022 and hit 6 of 9 passes for 113 yards and a TD. The development from year-to-year showed.
"We all thought, 'Whoa, there's Jordan Love,'" McCarren said. "He hasn't had a lot of extended playing time, and he got that against good people and he looked good. I think that woke a lot of us up. This young man has potential."
Love's finished 21 of 33 for 193 yards, three TDs and no interceptions in the preseason, and that built that anticipation for Week 1. It's less juxtaposed with Rodgers in New York and more about Love and his breakout potential. After all, this worked when Rodgers succeeded Favre – though the Packers went 6-10 in Rodgers first year as a starter. Why did the narrative on Love change?
"They've seen what the Packers had been seeing and why they felt comfortable going with Jordan as their quarterback," McCarren said. "He's got plenty of arm. He can make all the throws. He's mobile. He seems to have the right psychological makeup for the job. The thing I really didn't know because this is the first time I have been looking at him on tape regularly, is he can make all those throws from a variety of angles. He can adjust and do so accurately. You put all those things in a tool set, and he pretty much has the complete package."
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McCarren also pointed to the praise in Love's favor from teammates as another indicator that this is real.
"When they talk about, 'Hey, he's our guy,' it's not like quite frankly a bunch of BS and locker-room talk," McCarren said. "I believe it's genuine, and I've been doing this stuff a long time."
Of course, the supporting cast will have to come through. Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur might lean on the running back tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon around an offensive line that also performed well in the preseason to support Love.
Love is throwing to a young receiving corps that includes second-year receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, rookie slot receiver Jayden Reed and rookie tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. Even in a best-case scenario, there will be a learning curve. Watson and Doubs are dealing with injuries heading into Sunday's game.
"Supremely is probably a homer word," McCarren said. "They're very talented. The capacity to do great things is there. The key will be doing those things on a consistent basis. Is the talent there? Can they run the routes? Can they get open? Can they catch the ball? You betcha."
The preseason was a good first step, but that was the preseason. Can Love do all that against Chicago? All of that has McCarren less curious – and more excited – for Week 1.
"Like any Packers person, I was hoping, 'I hope this turns out well,'" McCarren said. " After watching him go through the process, I think the chances of it turning out well, his situation turning out well, I'm on board. I know it's early, but he's convinced me."
Justin Fields expectations for 2023
Fields enters his third season as a starter and second year with head coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy.
There is brilliance in Fields' game. He finished seventh in the NFL with 1,143 rushing yards last season – which edged San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey at 1,139 yards. Fields had 10 runs of 20 yards or more and tied Derrick Henry and Travis Etienne with a league-high four runs of 40 yards or more.
"The spectacular plays were just that," Waddle said. "They were spectacular. I would argue that he is the best runner of the football of any of the quarterbacks in the league right now whether it's Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson."
Where is the development needed? Fields has 24 TDs and 21 interceptions. He taken 91 sacks, including a league-high 55 in 2022. Fields has a 5-20 record as a starter, and the supporting cast has not been strong.
"You're not being honest with yourself if you don't acknowledge that his passing game needs a lot of work," Waddle said. "While he didn't have a ton of help around him, the offensive line wasn't great, the weapons in his huddle weren't fantastic, there were still things in his game that needed cleaned up, fundamental things, mechanics and getting rid the ball quick."
Waddle used Fields' two seasons at Ohio State to illustrate the next step. In 2020, Fields' receivers with the Buckeyes were Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams and Jaxon Smith-Njigba – all future first-round picks. Last year, the Bears' leader in receiving yards was tight end Cole Kmet.
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"When I'm Justin at Ohio State and I have Garrett Wilson on one side and Chris Olave on the other and we're running a post-dig combo against Indiana – with no disrespect to the Hoosiers – at some point four–and-a-half seconds in somebody's getting behind someone," Waddle said. "He's reading the field in some instances deep to short. In the NFL, a lot of times you have to read the defense short to deep. You almost have to rewire yourself."
Chicago added help for Fields this offseason. The Bears traded the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to Carolina for a package that included receiver D.J. Moore, who has averaged 1,040 receiving yards in his first five seasons.
Waddle said Moore is the "best player regardless of position" on the roster and gives Fields a veteran presence in the huddle. Chicago also spent a first-round pick on Tennessee tackle Darnell Wright – a 6-foot-6, 335-pound protector for Fields. The additions have led to excitement around Fields.
"He doesn't have to go to zero to Mahomes," Waddle said. "Just incremental progress, and it doesn't have to be a 5,000-yard passing season. The way he plays the game – have it be kind of like a hybrid approach. Be dangerous as a ball carrier and also a guy that can beat you with his arm."
Fields made headlines on July 20 by predicting he would pass for 4,000 yards this season. Erik Kramer set franchise records in 1995 with 3,838 passing yards and 29 TDs. Yet Waddle said the key will be two other statistics: completion percentage and TD:INT ratio. He's looking at the NFC quarterback who made that jump in 2022.
"If you look at what Jalen Hurts did last year, he completed 66% of his passes and 22 TDs and seven or so interceptions," Waddle said. "If Justin can complete 65% of his passes and have a two-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio, then he doesn't need to throw for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs because he'll be a dual threat."
Justin Fields vs. Jordan Love and the Bears-Packers rivalry
Who has the advantage heading into Week 1?
Sporting News' preseason quarterback rankings put Fields at No. 13 and Love at No. 14. Chicago is a two-point favorite. That adds even more spice to their first head-to-head matchup because it is a tone-setter for what might come next.
"There's plenty of pressure on both teams to get this thing started right," McCarren said. "In the Bears' sense, they are new and improved and Justin Fields is ready to take the next step. On the flip side, yeah, you know what, (the Packers) have high standards here and we feel ready, willing and able to continue those high standards."
Fields is 0-4 as a starter against the Packers. He has five total TDs and six interceptions in those games.
This one is in front of the home crowd, and a victory might feel more like an exorcism given how Favre and Rodgers turned the rivalry in the Packers' favor. Chicago will have two NFL Draft picks in 2024, so this is a prove-it year for Fields.
Love signed a one-year extension that will keep him in Green Bay through the 2024 season – a move that means his two-year window as the starter is open. Rodgers won his debut as a starter in a 24-19 thriller with the Vikings in 2008. That wasn't the Bears, however. This is a much larger stage for Love given the opponent and the quarterback on the other side.
This might generate the largest Week 1 overreaction because of that.
"Both of them have significant pressure on them when compared to other players in the league," Waddle said. "Love is filling in for Aaron Rodgers and has giant shoes to fill, and Justin needs to show he is the quarterback of the future because the Bears have to make a decision at the end of this year whether he's their guy and if they are going to pick up his fifth-year option. So, both of these quarterbacks need to establish themselves and prove that they are the guy for the next several years in their respective city."
