Jimmy Garoppolo arrived as the 49ers' franchise quarterback in a blockbuster trade from the Patriots only three years ago. But with the Super Bowl 54 starter dealing with his second major injury in three seasons, does this also mean his profitable time in San Francisco is finished?
Garoppolo, who missed 13 games in 2018 with a torn ACL, is out again up to six weeks, on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain. He already had missed two games in 2020 and may end up only playing half the season, at best.
Although the 49ers went 13-3 and won the NFC when Garoppolo was fully healthy last season, there has been a sense that he hasn't maximized the potential of the team at the game's most important position. Garoppolo has excellent key metrics with his 8.3 yards per attempt and 98.1 efficiency rating in his regular-season career stint in San Francisco. But the knock on his play has been about the throws he misses, the critical mistakes he makes and intended air yards that put him bottom-10 passing in the league.
Coach Kyle Shanahan operates an elite offense where the running game facilitates a versatile and explosive passing game. The bar in the system has been set very high, given Matt Ryan was the unquestioned NFL MVP when he played in Shanahan's scheme and led the Falcons to the Super Bowl four years ago.
Garoppolo needs to be appreciated more for his high floor, but after there was a clear difference between him and Chiefs Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes in the 49ers' biggest game under Shanahan, there's a natural feeling to want to bump up to a QB who can reach a Ryan-like ceiling.
Keeping in mind those issues with durability and production, here's a breakdown how the 49ers could break up with Garoppolo before the 2021 season:
Will the 49ers shut down Jimmy Garoppolo?
This is the first question to answer in the short term. Garoppolo's best chance at keeping his job is showing he can push his play to a higher level. He may not get that additional opportunity, however, The 49ers, already at 4-4 halfway through the season, could be out of NFC playoff contention soon — without Garoppolo and several more key players including running back Raheem Mostert, tight end George Kittle, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, defensive end Nick Bosa.
San Francisco has done well to survive a tough schedule, but it gets most brutal the next four games, starting with Green Bay at home on Thursday night in Week 9. Then it's the Saints, Rams and Bills in three consecutive weeks to think the 49ers are headed to a free fall out of wild-card consideration with Nick Mullens and/or C.J. Beathard filling in for Garoppolo.
The 49ers did bring back Garoppolo too early from a bad ankle the first time, and it cost them in critical games against the Eagles and the Seahawks as his footwork, mechanics and mobility were all off. There's no reason to rush back Garoppolo if the 49ers are staring down a sub-.500 season soon.
Instead of forcing him into non-contention action down the stretch, they should focus most on making sure he's fully healthy for 2021, either to come back stronger and play well for them — a la 2019 — or be a strong asset to move in the offseason.
How can the 49ers get out of Jimmy Garoppolo's contract in 2021?
Next year would mark the fourth year of the five-year, $137.5 million contract Garoppolo got in February 2018, about three months after the 49ers gave up a second-round draft pick to get him on Halloween 2017. Garoppolo is set to make a base salary of $24.1 million next season, counting as a $26.9 million cap hit.
The 49ers, as of now, are projected to have some $20 million in cap space. When not including teams that are well over the cap, that puts them near the bottom in effective spending power. Trading Garoppolo when the new league year begins in March would recoup $24.1 million against the cap, with the 49ers eating only the $2.8 million difference in dead money.
Garoppolo, who just turned 29, isn't a candidate to be released. If Nick Foles, who was hardly a factor for the Jaguars in 2019, can be moved, there will be a QB-have not willing to make a move to acquire Garoppolo ahead of him turning only 30 next November.
How could the 49ers trade Jimmy Garoppolo in 2021?
The 49ers expended a second-round pick to get Garoppolo and might be looking for that kind of compensation in return. Keep in mind, at the time in the middle of 2017. the Patriots were motivated sellers on Garoppolo to get something for him before he hit free agency. in retrospect, given the starting QB value he has given the 49ers overall, a first-rounder would have been fair.
That said, Garoppolo is worth a little more than the fourth-rounder the Bears gave to the Jaguars to get Foles. Another second-round pick makes a little more sense than a third, knowing some team will be aggressive in trying to upgrade their QB situation with an established veteran who has a history of winning success in two strong offensive systems.
The Jets and Jaguars are in line for new QBs in 2021, but they will have high picks in the draft. Washington might be headed down the same path, as another rebuilding team not wanting to give up high draft capital, either. The Bengals, Dolphins and the Chargers are all out on quarterbacks after their 2020 first-round picks.
The Colts will be a team to watch with Frank Reich and Chris Ballard, given Philip Rivers is signed for only one year. They have good cap space and as a playoff contender in 2020, will have too low of a draft pick to get a franchise QB in the first round. The Broncos are a possibility, too, if John Elway sees enough to think Drew Lock isn't the answer and would like to go the high-end bridge QB route again.
The most intriguing team, however, is Garoppolo's former team, the Patriots. Cam Newton isn't working. Jarrett Stidham isn't an answer. Brian Hoyer is a backup. The Patriots just might miss out on their rookie first-rounder of choice in 2021. With New England, there's no question that Garoppolo knows the system and can excel for Josh McDaniels again.
Would it be crazy that the 49ers and Patriots make two trades involving Garoppolo? In some ways, it is, but in more ways in makes a lot of sense given Bill Belichick and John Lynch have proved to be good trading partners.
What would be the 49ers' QB alternatives to Garoppolo in 2021?
The 49ers will get a longer look at Mullens, who has played a lot filling in for Garoppolo since being signed as a undrafted free agent in 2017. C.J. Beathard, taken in the third round in 2017, has had his chances, too. But Mullens will need to be tendered as a restricted free agent in 2021, while Beathard is a pending unrestricted free agent now in the final season of his four-year rookie deal.
Besides, if the 49ers are trying to upgrade from Garoppolo, they wouldn't be leaning on either Mullens or Beathard as a long-term starter, because their combined shaky upside is the reason they got aggressive to acquire Garoppolo in the middle of the 2017 season.
Kirk Cousins remained a popular target for Shanahan until the Vikings gave him a contract extension through 2022 earlier this year hat makes him really hard to move in 2021. As for Ryan, who's fading with the Falcons, being a fallback for Shanahan, he can't be easily moved from Atlanta until 2022.
The Cowboys probably still won't let Dak Prescott hit free agency. The 49ers already passed on Mitchell Trubisky once in the draft. Cam Newton, Jacoby Brissett and Andy Dalton have very little appeal now. Jameis Winston might be the most intriguing middle-tier free agent, but he seems like a misfit for the offense, despite still carrying plenty of upside at age 26.
Winston should get at least a look, given Shanahan did wonders in changing the game of Ryan, another QB who was brought up under the downfield passing concepts of Dirk Koetter. The issue is whether Winston really feels like an upgrade to Garoppolo, just like all those other non-Prescott options.
That should lead the 49ers to the draft to potentially replace Garoppolo, assuming they will have a reasonably high extra pick with which to work after trading Garoppolo. The 49ers probably won't end up picking high enough to get Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, Ohio State's Justin Fields or North Dakota State's Trey Lance. But they should be positioned well to get one of two top SEC passing prospects, Florida's Kyle Trask or Alabama's Mac Jones.
Trask and Jones have gotten more attention as possible late first-rounders with both of them thriving in great offensive systems. Trask and Jones also fit the profile of the types of quarterbacks who can succeed under Shanahan, and both would represent higher upside than Garoppolo.
Lynch, Shanahan and the 49ers' officials were smart to target Garoppolo to help complement their running game and the defense, delivering some pretty strong offensive results. But that recognition and intelligence from coach and GM then also would suggest they should be more interested in a cost-effective upgrade from Garoppolo in the near future.
