The Bengals know they won't have Tyler Eifert for the first month of the season, and possibly longer. Without him, they are missing a Pro Bowl tight end who caught 12 of his 15 red zone targets last season for 11 touchdowns.
Without him, they will lean on a leaner, meaner Jeremy Hill to compensate for the production.
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Hill is determined to bury his disappointing second year, and the Bengals intend to give him the ball enough for him do it. By the numbers, Eifert's absence will help HIll find a spark from the start.
Although Hill had 12 overall TDs to finish second on the team behind Eifert (13) in 2015, he wasn't Cincinnati's most effective red zone running back. Giovani Bernard led the league with 142 rushing yards on only 30 attempts, scoring twice.
During Hill's sophomore slump, with 223 carries vs. 222 as a rookie, his yards per carry dropped from 5.1 to 3.6. In relation to Bernard, Hill went from a blip in the passing game to non-existent.
Because Hill struggled with health, ball security and thus effectiveness, he received fewer opportunities than Bernard to be on the field. In 2014, the pair had a near 50-50 split in snaps. Last season, it tilted to 56-44 in Bernard's favor.
It's bound to be even or in Hill's favor this year, as he's coming off a strong offseason. Although Hill averaged only 2.1 yards per carry in the red zone in '15, he still was an efficient scorer, with 10 TDs on 30 attempts.
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The Bengals by nature aren't a big-volume throwing team inside the 20, and they will lean more on the run overall under new offensive coordinator Ken Zampese. But with Eifert's ability to create mismatches with size and athleticism, Andy Dalton and AJ McCarron threw up a few extra balls in a more spread-oriented offense under Hue Jackson. A.J. Green, of course, was heavily involved in the red zone. But after him and Eifert, the rest of the Bengals' receivers and backs received sporadic targets.
HIll should return to being the preferred and more effective red zone runner for the Bengals. That also will make him the co-No. 1 option with Green while Eifert is out.
The numbers are there for the taking, and they only add to the potential of Hill in '16.
It's a tough start for Cincinnati, as it opens against three of the top five run defenses from '15 — the Jets, Steelers and Broncos. But considering the speed of those teams, the power of Hill gives him more matchup appeal than Bernard.
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Hill's all-around skills will be much more beneficial to the Bengals this season. His individual production will be key to maintaining the team's red zone success early and make the Bengals extra dangerous when Eifert returns later.
Contributing: Alex Novick, Sporting News' head of data editorial
