Jalen Hurts contract projection: Will new Eagles deal reach NFL's highest-paid QBs stratosphere?

Jacob Camenker

Jalen Hurts contract projection: Will new Eagles deal reach NFL's highest-paid QBs stratosphere? image

Jalen Hurts was entering something of a prove-it year for the Eagles in his second full season as a starter. He fared well in his first year after replacing Carson Wentz, but with a strong roster surrounding him, Hurts needed to take a step forward in 2022 to prove that he was a franchise-type quarterback for Philadelphia.

Mission accomplished.

Hurts put together an excellent season and helped lead the Eagles to an appearance in the 2023 Super Bowl. He was one of the MVP frontrunners all season long and was voted an All-Pro second-teamer thanks to his strong season.

Hurts will now look to put an exclamation point on that season with a Super Bowl victory. But win or lose, the third-year pro will be looking to earn a big payday during the 2023 offseason.

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The Eagles will be eligible to sign Hurts, a 2020 second-round pick, to a long-term extension during the offseason. It seems that the team is ready and willing to give him a raise, as the team's owner Jeffrey Lurie told reporters at the Super Bowl.

"I don't think he has anything to prove [to be the long-term answer at quarterback]," Lurie told ESPN. "He is an MVP-caliber quarterback, an incredible leader of the team on the field, off the field. He's 24 years old, incredibly mature and, most importantly, driven to be even better.

What we're seeing today I think is just the beginning for Jalen. This guy will attack every weakness as he has since high school, since college. The future is bright and very exciting for all of us.

As such, it looks like Hurts will have an opportunity to sign a lucrative extension if he so desires. But just how much would a deal to keep Hurts cost? Below is a breakdown of Hurts' current contract and what he could make once he signs a new deal.

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Jalen Hurts contract with Eagles

Hurts is currently one of the most underpaid players in the NFL. He is still on his rookie contract and since he was a second-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, he is only set to make a total of $6.03 million over the course of his four-year deal. 

Below is a breakdown of his contract on a year-by-year basis, per Spotrac.com.

Year Base salary Bonuses Cap hit Dead cap
2020 $610,000 $485,486 $1,095,486 $1,941,944
2021 $883,871 $485,486 $1,369,357 $2,340,329
2022 $1,082,744 $560,486 $1,643,230 $1,045,972
2023 $4,303,000 $585,486 $4,888,486 $485,486

There's no denying that Hurts is underpaid, especially considering that he was a second-team All-Pro in 2022. He is also likely to be the MVP runner-up to Patrick Mahomes, and his stats help showcase that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

Jalen-Hurts-081222-GETTY-FTR
(Getty Images)

Jalen Hurts stats

Hurts put together a strong season in 2022 playing for the Eagles. He played in 15 regular-season games, missing two as a result of a shoulder injury, and posted a 14-1 record in those starts.

Hurts was efficient as a passer during the 2022 season. He didn't eclipse 4,000 passing yards — thanks, in part, to the injury that sidelined him for two weeks — but he was largely able to avoid turnovers during the campaign.

Below is a look at his passing stats and how they compare to other quarterbacks across the NFL.

Stat Total Rank among QBs
Comp. % 66.5 11th
Passing yards 3,701 10th
Pass TDs 22 14th
INTs 6 T-28th
Yards/attempt 8.0 3rd
Passer rating 101.5 4th
QBR 66.3 4th

Those numbers are certainly solid, but some still may balk at giving Hurts a big deal when looking only at passing stats. However, it must be noted that he is arguably the best dual-threat quarterback in the NFL. His rushing numbers played a big part in Philadelphia's success and were only rivaled by a handful of quarterbacks from around the NFL.

Here's a look at how Hurts fared as a runner in 2022.

Stat Total Rank among QBs
Rushes 165 1st
Rushing yards 760 4th
Rush TDs 13 1st
Yards/attempt 4.6 5th

Hurts' success on the ground helped him to be graded the league's fifth-best quarterback in 2022, per Pro Football Focus. His mark of 84.8 for the season trailed only those of Joe Burrow (92), Josh Allen (91.8), Patrick Mahomes (91.5) and Lamar Jackson (85.2). Certainly, that's a good group within which to be included.

But just how much should Hurts be paid based on his performance? To determine that, it's important to look at how much other top quarterbacks across the NFL are being paid.

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NFL's highest-paid QBs

If Hurts wants to get as lucrative a deal as possible, he will have plenty of recent examples upon which to base it. The quarterback marketing is consistently burgeoning, and there have been plenty of recent extensions on which he can model his.

Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray have all agreed to deals very recently, and it seems likely that Hurts' team will use those as they decide on potential structures for an extension. They will also keep a keen eye on the statuses of both Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson as they look to get lucrative contracts of their own.

Hurts will certainly slot into the $40 million per year range that most top-tier quarterbacks have gotten in recent deals. The only question will be how the length, total value and total guarantees within the contract compare to others signed before it.

Hurts certainly will be among the league's highest-paid quarterbacks if he does ink an extension. The only question is whether he will care most about the deal's average annual value (AAV), total value or guaranteed money.

Below is a look at the NFL's top quarterback contracts in terms of AAV, guarantees and total value:

NFL QB contracts with highest AAV

Rank Player AAV
1 Aaron Rodgers $50.3 million
2 Russell Wilson $49 million
3 Kyler Murray $46.1 million
4 Deshaun Watson $46 million
5 Patrick Mahomes $45 million
6 Josh Allen $43 million
7 Derek Carr $40.5 million
T-8 Dak Prescott $40 million
T-8 Matthew Stafford $40 million
10 Kirk Cousins $35 million

NFL QB contracts with most guaranteed money 

Rank Player Guarantees
1 Deshaun Watson $230 million
2 Kyler Murray $189.5 million
3 Russell Wilson $165 million
4 Aaron Rodgers $150.8 million
5 Josh Allen $150 million
6 Patrick Mahomes $141.5 million
7 Dak Prescott $126 million
8 Matthew Stafford $120 million
9 Jared Goff $110 million
10 Carson Wentz $108 million

NFL QB contracts by total value

Rank Player Value
1 Patrick Mahomes $450 million
2 Josh Allen $258 million
3 Russell Wilson $245 million
4 Kyler Murray $230.5 million
5 Deshaun Watson $230 million
T-6 Dak Prescott $160 million
T-6 Matthew Stafford $160 million
8 Aaron Rodgers $150.8 million
9 Matt Ryan $150 million
10 Jared Goff $134 million

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Jalen Hurts contract projection

So, what is a reasonable expectation for a potential Jalen Hurts contract extension? Well, it is going to cost the Eagles a lot to keep the 24-year-old around long-term.

Currently, Spotrac.com has Hurts' market value pegged at $44.2 million per season. That may be a little low, depending on the structure of the deal.

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported on Super Bowl said that Hurts' price is "only going up" as he continues to win. As such, he could position himself to land the most expensive quarterback deal league-wide.

"I'm sure whatever contract he does is gonna wanna be something where he can keep the pieces around him, but it's gonna be expensive," Rapoport said. "Russell Wilson is at 49 [million]. Rodgers is at 50 [million]. Does he get there?"

At a minimum, one would presume that Hurts will get a deal similar to that of Kyler Murray. The Cardinals quarterback was granted an extension worth $46.1 million per season after averaging 4,243 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns and 13 interceptions per 17 games played in his first three seasons. That came with a 22-23-1 record and no playoff wins.

Hurts has been much more successful, so reaching that threshold should be easy enough for him. The real question would probably be more about whether he can challenge for Wilson's $49 million per season — or the $245 million in total value attached to his deal, as Rapoport noted.

It's worth noting that Spotrac projects Hurts to sign a six-year deal. That makes the total projected value of his contract just under $265.4 million. That would be the second-most lucrative contract in the league behind only Mahomes.

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That said, Hurts may not want to agree to a six-year deal unless it contains within it significant guarantees. He may prefer to go for a five-year deal that would allow him to be a free agent again just as he is turning 30. At that point, he would still likely be in the prime of his career.

So, with all that said, Hurts' contract could look something like this:

  • Length: Five years
  • Total value: $240 million
  • AAV: $48 million
  • Guaranteed: $170 million (70.8 percent)

This would certainly be a favorable deal for Hurts, who would get a chance to sign at least one or perhaps two more massive contracts during his NFL career. It would make him the third-highest-paid NFL quarterback in terms of AAV and guarantees while making him the fourth-highest-paid in total value.

Meanwhile, the Eagles would be able to secure their quarterback long-term while avoiding crossing the $50 million per season threshold. They are surrendering a lot in guaranteed money — a risk considering that Hurts' mobility is a big part of his game — but they will probably need to be willing to pay him like Murray and Wilson to agree to a favorable deal.

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Perhaps Spotrac's projections in this case will be more spot-on, or maybe Hurts will give Philadelphia a bit of a discount to help keep some of the talent around him.

But as it stands, Hurts is positioned to become one of the NFL's highest-paid quarterbacks moving forward. It just depends on how Jeffrey Lurie, Howie Roseman and the Eagles want to compensate him.

Jacob Camenker

Jacob Camenker Photo

Jacob Camenker first joined The Sporting News as a fantasy football intern in 2018 after his graduation from UMass. He became a full-time employee with TSN in 2021 and now serves as a senior content producer with a particular focus on the NFL. Jacob worked at NBC Sports Boston as a content producer from 2019 to 2021. He is an avid fan of the NFL Draft and ranked 10th in FantasyPros’ Mock Draft Accuracy metric in both 2021 and 2022.