A draft strategy guide for running backs? That's easy -- draft early and draft often. Done. No other fantasy tips needed, right? Sadly, it's not quite as simple as that. Drafting frequently is one thing; drafting smartly is another. You don't need any sort of cheat sheet or sleepers list to do the former, but in order to do the latter, you need to know which players to target and in which rounds. Having a handy set of 2021 RB rankings tiers is the best way to do that.
As we do every year for every position (well, not kicker, because...well, you know), we've tiered off our rankings to give you a better idea how your draft could (and should) unfold. Specifically, we want to look at what to expect if you wait until the various stages of your draft to fill your RB1, RB2, and primary backup slots.
2021 STANDARD FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200
Obviously, our tiers are based on our rankings. You might prefer a different set, so some of the names in the various tiers could change, but the sentiments remain the same. If you plan to go with pass-catchers in the first few rounds, then you can expect Tier-3 or Tier-4 RBs as your starters in Week 1. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it means you should be extra aggressive in drafting those middle-round sleepers. The less "reliable" your starters, the more upside you want with your backups.
2021 PPR FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200
Heading into 2021, the studs at the top of our rankings all look like sure things, but we know at least a couple will suffer multi-game injury setbacks (Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley last year), and a one or two will simply underwhelm (2020 Ezekiel Elliott, anyone?). You can't predict injuries, and even if you stay away from the most "injury-prone" guys, you still have to hold your breath every time your back is tackled. That's just the nature of the beast. The surprise drop-offs are just as unexpected, which is why depth is always important at this position.
2021 FANTASY SLEEPERS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Each team
A few years ago, after a particularly brutal couple seasons for the top running backs, the "Zero-RB" draft strategy became popular with some. Eschewing early-round runners for more reliable pass-catchers, then stocking up on rookies, handcuffs, and other assorted committee backs obviously has its merits, but you better be ready to walk a pretty fine tightrope all season with your starting RBs. You will feel like a genius when your last-round James Robinson is outproducing someone else's first-round Joe Mixon, but when someone else's Dalvin Cook is destroying your Joshua Kelley, you don't feel quite as smart -- especially when that Cook owner also drafted Justin Jefferson in the 11th round and you drafted Michael Thomas in the first.
2021 FANTASY AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Overall
Ultimately, there are no sure things in fantasy football. Selecting running backs early and often is a preferred general strategy, but it's not as easy as just clicking any name on the RB page during your draft. It's about finding the best value, paying attention to what your competitors are doing, and projecting who will be available in the next round and round after that. Sometimes, you guess wrong and your preferred target is gone, but if you have a set of tiered rankings, you should be able to quickly adapt and refrain from overdrafting a lesser RB in a panic move. Knowing you can get approximately the same value in the next round or round after will help you build a stronger overall team and keep you on track for a successful draft at every position.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2021 Cheat Sheet
2021 Fantasy RB Tiers: Who are the best fantasy football running backs?
Rankings and tiers based on standard, non-PPR leagues. PPR leagues could have different tiers, which is highlighted throughout text below.
Tier 1:
1 Derrick Henry, Titans
2 Christian McCaffrey, Panthers
3 Dalvin Cook, Vikings
Tier 2:
4 Saquon Barkley, Giants
5 Nick Chubb, Browns
6 Alvin Kamara, Saints
7 Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
8 Aaron Jones, Packers
9 Jonathan Taylor, Colts
10 Antonio Gibson, Washington
The majority of this group will be drafted in the first round of all drafts, but the order is up for debate. There are also obvious differences between standard and PPR leagues. In PPR, Barkley and Kamara would vault into the top tier (with Henry barely hanging on), but either way, these backs will go throughout the first and early part of the second rounds.
You can't go wrong with any as your RB1, whether you take one in the top five or select a WR first and get someone like Jones early in the second round. All figure to get the vast majority of their team's carries and have track records of major success. Taylor and Gibson have only played one season, but they both have even higher ceilings than they showed last year when they rushed for 11 touchdowns apiece.
Again, the order is up for debate. Many will opt for McCaffrey first, which is fine, but we like the steadiness of the two-time defending rushing (and rushing TD) champ in standard leagues. In PPR, we'd take McCaffrey (quad, thigh, ankle) despite his injury-plagued 2020. Barkley (knee) is also looking to come back from injury, while Elliott will look to bounce back from his worst season as a pro. All come with slight worries (How will the Saints offense operate without Drew Brees all year? Can Kareem Hunt steal too many TDs/receptions from Chubb? Can Cook stay healthy?), but the question marks only get bigger the further down the rankings you go. That's why grabbing at least one RB early is a preferred strategy of many and as tried-and-true as it gets in fantasy football.
2021 FANTASY TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
Quarterback | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST
2021 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Which RBs could break out this year?
Tier 3:
11 Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs
12 Austin Ekeler, Chargers
13 David Montgomery, Bears
14 Joe Mixon, Bengals
15 Najee Harris, Steelers
16 Miles Sanders, Eagles
17 D'Andre Swift, Lions
18 James Robinson, Jaguars
19 Josh Jacobs, Raiders
20 Chris Carson, Seahawks
21 Gus Edwards, Ravens
If you're one of the fantasy owners in a 12-team draft that doesn't get an RB from our top tiers, don't worry -- the third tier might actually feature some better values. These players will start coming off the board in the second round and likely will be gone by the start of the fourth. Getting one as your RB2 is a major victory, so don't be afraid to start your draft with back-to-back RBs. Sure, you'll miss out on the elite WRs and Travis Kelce, but your starting backfield will be as good as anyone's in your league.
You could also take backs in Rounds 1 and 3 and get a stud WR in between, or take a receiver in the first, then two of the backs in this tier in Rounds 2 and 3. Any of these combinations is a great way to start your team.
It wouldn't be a shock if any of these backs, with the possibility of Ekeler in standard leagues, finishes in the top five. All have major upside as primary ball carriers (again, except Ekeler), and almost all are highly skilled receivers (especially Ekeler). Edwards and Jacobs both lose value in PPR leagues (Edwards because Baltimore rarely throws to RBs, Jacobs because of the addition of Kenyan Drake), but they should both post 1,000-plus rushing yards and 10-plus touchdowns with ease as long as they remain their teams' respective lead backs.
Edwards-Helaire (slight worries about his goal-line ability), Sanders (slight durability concerns), Swift (unproven as a lead runner), and Harris (o-line worries) figure to be especially good in PPR leagues, while Montgomery, Mixon, Robinson, and Carson will be solid across the board if they're healthy. Montgomery and Mixon could be going in different directions in PPR, though, as Tarik Cohen's eventual return after his opening six-week stint on the PUP and the addition of Damien Williams could cut into Montgomery's 54 catches from last year, and Giovani Bernard's departure should put more onus on Mixon in Cincinnati's receiving game.
Ultimately, these backs all have similar overall outlooks (depending on the format), though they come with varying degrees of upside. You might get more value taking someone like Carson in the late third compared to taking CEH or Harris in the mid-second, but the latter have higher ceilings. However, if the last of the top-tier WRs is still available in the mid-second, you're betting off grabbing the WR and "settling" for Carson. It's all about reading the draft and weighing best available at all positions.
FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY:
Snake Draft | Auction | Best Ball | Dynasty/Keeper | IDP
Fantasy RB Tiers: Sleepers and committee running backs
Tier 4:
22 Kareem Hunt, Browns
23 Javonte Williams, Broncos
24 Myles Gaskin, Dolphins
25 Darrell Henderson, Rams
26 Mike Davis, Falcons
27 Damien Harris, Patriots
28 Raheem Mostert, 49ers
29 Chase Edmonds, Cardinals
30 Melvin Gordon, Broncos
31 Devin Singletary, Bills
32 Zack Moss, Bills
33 Michael Carter, Jets
34 Phillip Lindsay, Texans
35 Ronald Jones II, Buccaneers
36 Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers
37 James Conner, Cardinals
38 David Johnson, Texans
You should have at least one running back by the time these names are atop your draft board, but if you still subscribe to the "Zero-RB" draft strategy, you're probably looking at one of these guys as your RB1. Can you live with that? Yeah, you can undoubtedly make it work if the rest of your team is good enough, but the margin for error gets slimmer. Even if you pick, say, Ezekiel Elliott sixth overall and he disappoints like he did last season, you still have a back who's worth using every week as no worse than a flex. Any of the guys in this tier could wind up being unplayable before the calendar flips to October.
It's this tier of the RB rankings that makes people hate fantasy football, especially since a lot of owners will be mining this group in Rounds 5-8 for RB2s and flexes. Make no mistake, several reliable, every-week starters will emerge from this group, and we could even get some top-10 backs from this tier if things break right for a few, but after seeing how quickly things turn murky at RB, you'll understand why most owners will try to get their two starters from Tiers 1-3.
Whether you're looking for your RB1, RB2, or flex (or some combo of both), let's figure out who to target. There are a couple "unquestioned" lead backs in this group, with Gaskin, Henderson, Davis, Mostert, and likely Carter filling those roles in Week 1. Harris could be considered one, too, but with the Patriots, we won't assume anything. That's why most of them are ranked higher and have more upside (and better picks if you need an RB1), but given the tenuousness of their grips on the jobs (be it because of experience, injury risk, or other assorted factors), they're still in the same tier as many other "committee" backs.
However, even among some of these textbook "committee" backfields, clear leader could emerge as early as Week 2. We particularly like Williams in Denver and Lindsay in Houston, but the rest will likely keep us guessing. It's important to remember that even if, say, Edmonds gets 14 more touches than Conner in Week 1, that doesn't mean the pendulum won't swing back in Conner's favor in the near future. Unfortunately, it might take an injury for fantasy owners to really feel good about some of these backs.
MORE 2021 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Superflex Top 200 | Superflex Top 200 PPR | IDP | Rookies | O-lines
That's why a player like Hunt is so valuable. Even though we know he's not Cleveland's "lead back," we also know he has a valuable role and will see double-digit touches every week. Even when Chubbis rolling, Hunt has shown the abilitity to have a good game. Case in point: Last year, in the 12 games in which Chubb played, Hunt averaged 11.1 carries, 2.3 catches, and 68.6 total yards and scored nine total TDs. A clearly defined role is important in fantasy. Both Singletary and Moss have more individual upside if they're leading the Bills backfield, but it's anyone's guess which one will -- and if they will remain in that role. The same goes for Williams and Gordon in Denver, Lindsay and Johnson in Houston, Fournette and Jones in Tampa, and Edmonds and Conner in Arizona.
If you pick right in this tier, it could really pay off. Chances are, the "Zero-RBers" out there have guessed right in the past and think they can do it every time. Maybe they can (especially if they're willing to be active on the waiver wire all year), but it's not a fun game to play, at least not with all of your RB spots.
Getting good value on flexes and backups in this tier is great, but unless you get multiple backs from the same team, which limits your overall upside, you are taking some level of risk. That risk increases based on how much you're relying on these players. That's why we suggest having at least three top-40 backs on your team by the start of the eighth round, but if you trust your instincts, you can chart a different path.
MORE 2021 FANTASY HELP:
Mock Draft Simulator | Position battles | Bye weeks | Best team names
Fantasy RB Rankings Tiers: Best handcuff RBs
Tier 5:
39 Jamaal Williams, Lions
40 Nyheim Hines, Colts
41 AJ Dillon, Packers
42 Tony Pollard, Cowboys
43 JD McKissic, Washington
44 Trey Sermon, 49ers
45 Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
46 Tony Jones Jr., Saints
47 Carlos Hyde, Jaguars
48 Damien Williams, Bears
49 James White, Patriots
50 Ty'Son Williams, Ravens
51 Alexander Mattison, Vikings
52 Tevin Coleman, Jets
53 Justin Jackson, Chargers
Tier 6:
54 Malcolm Brown, Dolphins
55 Kenyan Drake, Raiders
56 Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles
57 Darrel Williams, Chiefs
58 Sony Michel, Rams
59 Mark Ingram, Texans
60 Rashaad Penny, Seahawks
61 Marlon Mack, Colts
62 Devontae Booker, Giants
63 Ty Johnson, Jets
64 Benny Snell Jr., Steelers
65 Elijah Mitchell, 49ers
The first thing to note here is guys like Hines, McKissic, and White all bump up a tier in PPR leagues. Touchdowns will likely be an issue for all, which is why even in PPR their overall values can be limited, but they provide a decent floor thanks to regular targets. As Gibson continues to emerge as a pass-catching option in Washington, we could see McKissic lose some value, but for now, he still has to be considered among the elite pass-catching backs. In 2019, White finished 18th among RBs in full-point PPR leagues (Hines was 42nd); last season, Hines and McKissic were 15th and 17th, respectively (White was 42nd despite missing two games). The ceilings are clearly higher than anyone (including us) thinks they are on draft day. Gainwell, who caught 51 passes in his final season at Memphis, could be on his way to joining them.
That said, you don't want to be counting on the backs in this tier to be starting for you in Week 1 in standard leagues. Murray, Jamaal Williams, Pollard, Dillon and Ty'Son Williams should get a decent amount of work, perhaps not unlike Hunt in the tier above, so they're nice to have even if you don't own the backs in front of them. Sermon is a popular sleeper who could (emphasis on "could") contribute right away, and it's likely someone in the Jets, Rams, and Chargers backfields other than Carter, Henderson, and Ekeler will have notable roles, but the jury is still out on who. We're favoring Coleman, Jones, and Jackson right now, but we'll have to continue to monitor those situations throughout the preseason.
Someone will emerge from these tiers, likely because of injury, to have an RB2-caliber season. If Cook gets hurt in Minnesota or Jacobs in Vegas, then Mattison and Drake will immediately be inserted into starting lineups with no hesitations. That's true for a lot of these guys, so it's good to grab one or two in the middle and late rounds, especially if it's someone like Sermon, Stevenson, Michel and maybe even Brown who might not even need an injury to shine. Sermon will likely command the highest pick, perhaps in the early middle rounds, but it's easy to imagine a scenario where he pays off in a big way.
You can consider the rest of these backs "high-priority" handcuffs. If you draft, say, Aaron Jones in the first or second round, it's smart to make it a point to get Dillon. That could mean reaching a round higher than everyone else, but you don't want to lose one of your cornerstones and replace him with a waiver pickup who gets nine touches on a good day.
If you're a Zero-RBer and you're mining these tiers for a Week 1 starter, you might as well swing for the fences, at least in standard leagues. Grabbing one "safe" guy, like Pollard, will guarantee you some points each week, but if you go all-in on this finally being the year for Penny, you might get a bigger payoff since Seattle is notoriously weird with their running backs. You also might get a guy who's on the IR by Week 2. That's why it's a risky strategy, but it can work if your pass-catchers are monsters and you have even a moderate hit on a couple RBs.
2021 FANTASY CONSISTENCY RATINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Fantasy RB Deep Sleepers and Handcuffs
66 Wayne Gallman, Falcons
67 Giovani Bernard, Buccaneers
68 Samaje Perine, Bengals
69 Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
70 Salvon Ahmed, Dolphins
71 Joshua Kelley, Chargers
72 Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons
73 Boston Scott, Eagles
74 Tarik Cohen, Bears
75 Jake Funk, Rams
76 La'Mical Perine, Jets
77 Darrynton Evans, Titans
78 Jeremy McNichols, Titans
79 Anthony McFarland Jr., Steelers
There are some legitimate sleepers in tier. Ahmed was a stud in his three full games as a starter last year, posting 63 touches (seven catches), 291 total yards, and two scores. He could emerge in Miami even without a significant injury to someone else. Kelley and Perine struggled last year as rookies, but they're both in unsettled backfields that have openings for 1Bs, if not 1As. Someone other than Mike Davis also figures to emerge for Atlanta, creating an opportunity for one (or both) of Patterson and Ollison.
Mostly, though, this tier features traditional handcuffs. A few will get drafted (it only makes sense for the McCaffrey and Henry owners to use second-to-last-round picks on Hubbard and Evans, respectively); most won't. At the very least, you should keep these backs on your watchlists because you just know it's these types of RBs who wind up starting at some point in the season, especially with COVID issues once again destined to cause problems. If you've added a roster spot or two in your league to try to mitigate injury/COVID issues, you have no excuse for failing to back up your key starters.
