The Cowboys got through the first seven games of the 2017 season without Ezekiel Elliott serving any of his NFL-imposed suspension. But after the running back played in Dallas' Week 8 win over Washington, the team might regret the timing if his six-game ban goes into effect.
Whether Elliott will "win" a so-far successful appeals process comes down to his latest injunction hearing, scheduled for Monday. If the presiding judge sides with the league and Elliott's suspension begins, the question must be asked:
Would the Cowboys have been better off had Elliott just accepted his six-game punishment in the first place?
MORE: Why Elliott can play vs. Redskins
The Cowboys are 4-3 going into Week 9. Their losses have come to the Packers and Rams at home, and to the Broncos on the road, with Elliott being a non-factor in Denver. Their wins have come in comfortable fashion against the Giants, Cardinals, 49ers and Redskins.
Based on that schedule and with a few twists (like Los Angeles being much better and New York being much worse than expected), Dallas' record through seven games seems about right. The Cowboys probably would have paved a similar path without Elliott given they were projected to go 4-2 with him.
In this case in particular, it's easier to survive a near half-season suspension earlier in the year rather than later. Elliott is an indispensable asset for the Cowboys, but he will be even more critical for them in November and December, when weather becomes more of a factor in their status as road warriors.
The Eagles — not the Cowboys, Giants or Redskins — have emerged as the team to beat in the NFC East. Elliott is now in line to miss one game each against Philadelphia, New York and Washington. The other three games in the six-week stretch beginning in Week 9 include the mighty Chiefs (5-2), the dangerous Falcons (3-3) and the rising Chargers (3-4).
The Cowboys will need their full arsenal of offensive skill players to beat the Chiefs (home) and Falcons (away). The Chargers have given up big rushing games to workhorse feature backs; they have fared better when facing committees.
For Dallas, given the locations and the toughness of its opponents in those six games, lacking the rushing and receiving threat that is Elliott could make for a big negative swing. The Cowboys could win all six with Elliott. Without him, the over/under for Dallas victories is two.
A 4-3 record typically would be an indication of a mediocre team that has a questionable chance at a deep playoff run. That's not the case for the Cowboys, who still have that chance with their defense starting to play well. But the physical and emotional blow of having Elliott pulled from the lineup could rein in the hot play of quarterback Dak Prescott and that defense at the worse possible time.
If Elliott were to be suspended for the aforementioned six games, the Cowboys, with a brutal closing stretch against the Raiders, Seahawks and Eagles, would not be able to afford him needing to shake off any rust in his return. By then, those games might not matter as much as they should.
There is no good time lose a special talent like Elliott for so long. But if the Cowboys could have picked their spot, the stretch of six games starting in Week 9 would not have been it.
Dallas better be banking on Elliott totally avoiding his suspension in 2017. Otherwise, the Cowboys' playoff hopes would have been much more realistic had he already served it.
