NFL back in big trade business; 2016 may be Drew Brees' turn

David Steele

NFL back in big trade business; 2016 may be Drew Brees' turn image

You're not imagining things.

The first few days of 2015 NFL free agency have seen more trades involving major players than normal — the most in recent memory. You're also not imagining this: After becoming practically obsolete, big trades like these could become the rule, rather than the exception. And don't be surprised if a player on the market next year is Drew Brees.

MORE: Making sense of Saints' moves | What Jimmy Graham does for Seahawks 

Brees' contract is the kind that may have the Saints again looking for trade partners, as his cap numbers this year and next have New Orleans in the middle of a huge salary dump.

With the exception of his age (36), Brees fits the criteria for players moved during this week's blockbuster trades: Brandon Marshall, LeSean McCoy, Haloti Ngata, Sam Bradford (to an extent) and Jimmy Graham (in multiple ways). They're valued players with some productive years left but have just a year or so left on backloaded contracts and cap numbers that teams can no longer swallow. 

Brees' cap hit this year is $26.4 million. Next season, the final year of the monster deal he signed in 2012, it’s $27.4 million. New Orleans had to unload key players, including guard Ben Grubbs on Thursday and, of course, Graham on Tuesday after just one season of his big contract.

It will come down to how much another team thinks Brees is worth not just contractually, but in what it's willing to give up in order to avoid free agency competition for the future Hall of Famer if he gets released. 

That's been the difference this year compared to past free agency periods, says former agent and NFL capologist J.I. Halsell: Believing a player can help enough to warrant giving up assets.

"You look at Brandon Marshall — final year of his deal, 30-plus years old, a few injuries, but still productive. Let's get something in return," Halsell told Sporting News, describing the Bears' mindset when deciding to part with the Pro Bowl receiver.

On the other side, he continued, the Jets needed him, made room for him under their cap (mainly by later releasing Percy Harvin) and made sure they didn't lose a bidding war. "You see a team willing to jump the line to get that player, and you make that deal," he said.

FREE AGENCY 2015: Team-by-team signing tracker 

The Bears received two draft picks for Marshall. The Ravens sent Ngata (due $16.5 million this year) and a pick to the Lions and received two picks.

McCoy turns 27 in July, but running back age is accelerated for these purposes, and the Eagles preferred to get out from under his $10.25 million cap number for this year. Graham turns 29 late in the season, and his cap hit doubled this year to $8 million before it goes up the next two years.

And Bradford, notoriously, is due nearly $13 million in the final year of his rookie deal and thus is no longer a Ram, but an Eagle.

Those guys were deemed worth giving up something for as opposed to Harvin, who has baggage to go with his big contract. Same goes for former Texans receiver Andre Johnson, who is 33 and had a cap number of $16 million.

Johnson and Harvin were the moves everyone recognizes: Players who were shopped briefly but then let go because no team wanted to pay for someone they could soon get in free agency. The market this year was tilted, though, largely because the backloaded contract that's cap-friendly in the early years is now the norm. 

Teams still want to wiggle out from under the big payoff later, but the players they're unloading are now worth the price to others.

The same could be said soon for Brees. It's not guaranteed to happen in 2016, but don't be surprised when it does.

David Steele

David Steele Photo

David Steele writes about the NFL for Sporting News, which he joined in 2011 as a columnist. He has previously written for AOL FanHouse, the Baltimore Sun, San Francisco Chronicle and Newsday. He co-authored Olympic champion Tommie Smith's autobiography, Silent Gesture.