Why DeAndre Hopkins' absence could make or break Kyler Murray contract negotiations with Cardinals

Kevin Skiver

Why DeAndre Hopkins' absence could make or break Kyler Murray contract negotiations with Cardinals image

The Cardinals have had a tumultuous offseason following a disappointing end to the 2021 season.

First, they had to deal with an apparently disgruntled quarterback Kyler Murray. That situation has been resolved for the time being. Then star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was suspended for the first six games of the 2022 season for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing substances.

Hopkins' suspension puts a huge dent in the Cardinals' offense. He played in 10 games last year, in which Arizona went 8-2. In the games he missed while Murray was on the field, the Cardinals were 1-3. Hopkins was inactive for the Cardinals' 34-11 playoff loss to the Rams.

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What did the Cardinals' offense look like without Hopkins?

The difference in the Cardinals' offense without Hopkins isn't only apparent on the stat sheet. Hopkins averaged 12.6 yards per target last year, and Murray's average depth of target dropped from 8.24 yards per attempt with Hopkins in the lineup to 7.73 without him in it.

Sometimes, however, it doesn't take the advanced stats to see the difference. Murray completed 71.8 percent of his passes with Hopkins in the lineup. Without Hopkins? He completed 65 percent.

How Murray fared without Hopkins last season:

OPPONENT COMP ATT YDS YPA TDs INTs
Lions 23 41 257 6.3 1 1
Colts 27 43 245 5.7 1 0
Cowboys 26 38 263 6.9 2 0
Seahawks 28 39 240 6.2 1 0

The Cardinals traded for Marquise Brown during the draft to address their lack of receiver depth. He'll have to play well alongside A.J. Green to help Murray's numbers.

Who will the Cardinals play without Hopkins?

The Cardinals are starting with a gauntlet in Weeks 1-3. They open at home against the Chiefs before going to the Raiders. Then they host the Rams in Week 3. After that, the schedule mellows out with games at the Panthers, vs. the Eagles and at the Seahawks.

Opponent 2021 record
vs. Chiefs 12-5
at Raiders 10-7
vs. Rams 12-5
at Panthers 5-12
vs. Eagles 9-8
at Seahawks 7-10

Those first three games are extremely important. Just six teams in NFL history have made the playoffs after starting 0-3, the last being the 2018 Texans.

Why are these games so important to Murray?

Great quarterbacks don't have the luxury of excuses. Murray caused quite a stir this offseason by deleting all Cardinals-related content from his social media, a universal sign a player is looking to gain leverage in contract talks. The Cardinals have picked up his fifth-year option for 2023, but more and more players are signing extensions before the option year begins. Murray will likely be no exception.

But now he has to put up numbers without Hopkins on the field, and Hopkins is one of the best receivers in the league. His 2024 cap hit is $26.2 million. Murray needs to show that Arizona should tie up a whole lot of money in the two of them. If this offseason proved nothing else, it's that great receivers come and go but quarterbacks stay rooted if teams want them. Murray needs to make himself wanted.

His contract's ceiling may not be at Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson levels, but if he were to get a Russell Wilson-type number, his deal would be around $35 million per year.

If the Cardinals go 0-3, they'll be in a huge hole. Teams that start 0-3 historically have about a 3 percent chance of making the postseason. That's not to say the Cardinals can't, but the odds would not be in their favor.

Murray no doubt will be looking for assurances beyond his option. Those three opening games are the time to get them.

Kevin Skiver

Kevin Skiver Photo

Kevin Skiver has been a content producer at Sporting News since 2021. He previously worked at CBS Sports as a trending topics writer, and now writes various pieces on MLB, the NFL, the NBA, and college sports. He enjoys hiking and eating, not necessarily in that order.