The AFC West wasn't quite as strong as many prognosticators predicted it would be during the 2022 NFL season, and that was partly because the Chargers didn't quite live up to expectations.
Los Angeles was expected to challenge Kansas City for the divisional crown in Justin Herbert's third season. Instead, injuries to stars on both sides of the ball prevented the Chargers from ever making a true push to the top of the West.
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However, the Chargers still put together a strong season. They have logged double-digit wins and are starting to heat up — and get healthy — at the right time. They have already clinched a playoff berth and will now look to see just how far they can make it in the loaded AFC.
The only question now is how will the Chargers' path to the Super Bowl look.
Los Angeles doesn't yet know who it will play in the first round of the 2023 NFL postseason. That said, the team does know that it will have to play on the road as it can only earn one of two seeds in the playoff bracket — the No. 5 or No. 6 seed.
How can the Chargers earn each of those in Week 18, and who might they play on Super Wild Card Weekend? Here's a breakdown of their seeding scenarios.
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How the Chargers can clinch the No. 5 seed in AFC
The Chargers are currently the No. 5 seed in the AFC and have the inside track to get there. They are primarily competing with the Ravens for the top wild-card spot, but Los Angeles has the advantage by virtue of their superior record in conference games.
Here's how the Chargers can lock up the No. 5 seed in the AFC:
- Chargers win OR
- Chargers tie AND Ravens tie OR
- Ravens lose
The Chargers initially faced a few more scenarios that could have knocked them out of the No. 5 seed and into the No. 6, but the cancellation of the Bills vs. Bengals Week 17 game after Damar Hamlin's on-field cardiac arrest took them out of the equation. Cincinnati won the AFC North when that game was ruled a no-contest.
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How the Chargers can clinch the No. 6 seed in AFC
The Chargers' path to the No. 6 seed in the AFC is much simpler. If they lose and the Ravens win, then Baltimore would leapfrog them in the wild-card race. That is the only way they would not finish with the No. 5 seed.
Again, the Chargers could have dropped to the No. 6 seed had the Bengals-Bills game been completed, but once that was ruled a no-contest, the Chargers gained full control of their destiny.
Potential Chargers playoff matchups
The Chargers have a handful of potential playoff matchups, and they will depend upon which seed the team receives.
If the Chargers get the No. 5 seed, they will face off against the AFC South champion Jaguars. Los Angeles lost to Jacksonville 38-10 in Week 3.
The Jaguars would be a tough matchup given that their offense has become more explosive in recent weeks. Still, the Chargers would have a good chance to win and would certainly fare better than they did in their blowout loss to the Jaguars in Week 3. Herbert was fresh off a rib injury in that game and decided to play despite rumors that he wouldn't.
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Getting the No. 6 seed would make the Chargers' path decidedly more difficult as they would play the Bills or Bengals in the wild-card round. Both opponents have strong offenses that will be able to test the Chargers' defense, and each would be able to get pressure on Herbert.
With that in mind, expect the Chargers to fight hard for the No. 5 seed. It would give them a much better chance of advancing to the divisional round.
