The Buccaneers' 2022 season has not been pretty to date, but they did what they needed to in Week 17 to clinch a playoff spot as NFC South champions.
Now, Tom Brady and Co. are heading back to the postseason as division winners once again. The only question left to be answered is who they will play in the opening round of the 2023 NFL playoffs.
The Buccaneers cannot improve their own seeding anymore and they are locked into the NFC's No. 4 seed. The result of their Week 18 game against the Falcons will effectively be meaningless in determining anything save for Atlanta's position in the 2023 NFL Draft order.
And because the Buccaneers are locked into their seeding, there are only a couple of possible opponents they could face. And one is overwhelmingly favored to earn the No. 5 seed.
So, who will the Buccaneers play in the playoffs? Here's a breakdown of how Week 18 will impact their postseason outlook and potential opponents.
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture for Week 18
Why Buccaneers are locked into NFC No. 4 seed
The Buccaneers are locked into the No. 4 seed in the NFC because they clinched the NFC South via their 30-24 win over the Panthers in Week 17.
The division winners get the Nos. 1 through 4 seeds in each conference, and Tampa Bay easily has the worst record among the NFC's division winners and leaders. The Bucs are 8-8 overall while every other team still involved in the divisional races has at least 12 wins.
As such, Tampa Bay will be the No. 4 seed and will host the No. 5 seed at Raymond James Stadium on Super Wild Card Weekend. And there are only a couple of options as to who the Buccaneers could face.
MORE: Has Tom Brady ever had a losing season?
Potential Buccaneers playoff matchups
The Buccaneers only have two potential playoff opponents entering Week 18. They will play either the Eagles or the Cowboys in the opening round of the 2023 NFL playoffs.
Dallas is far more likely to be Tampa Bay's opponent. Why? Because Philadelphia has the easier path to winning the NFC East and clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The Buccaneers would face the Cowboys in their first playoff game with either of these outcomes:
- The Eagles win or tie against the Giants
- The Cowboys lose or tie against the Commanders
There only way the Bucs play the Eagles is if the following scenario occurs:
- The Eagles lose against the Giants AND
- The Cowboys win against the Commanders
Currently, FiveThirtyEight gives the Eagles a 94 percent chance of winning the division. So, if Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers want to start preparing for the playoffs, they should probably start assessing exactly how they match up against the Cowboys, who they beat 19-3 back in Week 1.
