To buy or not to buy: That is the Browns' Brian Hoyer question

Jason Fitzgerald

To buy or not to buy: That is the Browns' Brian Hoyer question image

The Browns sit at 3-2 after thumping the Steelers, and talks heat up about their need to extend quarterback Brian Hoyer, who becomes a free agent after this season. Hoyer, who has a limited track record and physical tools, is clearly the lightning rod for a team exceeding expectations.

Waiting is Johnny Manziel, a first-round draft pick and college superstar, giving the Browns more to consider.

MORE: For Cleveland to keep Hoyer, they can't commit to Manziel | Browns look like winners

So what do the Browns do?

Buyer beware

In many recent cases of players who fit Hoyer’s profile — Matt Flynn, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel and Derek Anderson, for example — the decision to enter multi-year contracts has not worked out for the team. In three cases, the driving factor behind the signing was wins. In the case of Flynn (and to some extent Cassel), it was also the thought that the player had no opportunity to break through with a superstar in front of him. Here are some of the numbers, compared to Hoyer’s, that helped them earn their contracts:

 

In each case the player regressed almost immediately upon signing the contract. Cassel had the longest shelf life, lasting four seasons with the Chiefs. Anderson was cut after two seasons; Fitzpatrick cut after one and a half; Flynn traded after one. The following graph illustrates the percentage decline in performance following the new contract.

 

Perhaps the best Hoyer comparison is Fitzpatrick, who bounced around the NFL before arriving in Buffalo as a backup. Fitzpatrick compiled a poor 8-13 record over a two-year stretch with the Bills but in 2011 helped lead them to a 4-2 start, and his numbers were impressive. Buffalo threw out all his history and made a decision based on those six games by signing Fitzpatrick to a six-year contract worth over $20 million in guarantees. The QB proceeded to lose eight of the next 10 games and was released in 2013.

Though the names above do not paint a bright picture for Hoyer, there are success stories like Tony Romo's in Dallas. The difference, though, is that the Cowboys were able to wait and see how Romo looked in a second season before negotiating a long-term deal. It showed them how the QB looked with a slightly different cast of players and, more important, in a league that had an entire offseason to scheme against him. The Browns won't have that with Hoyer.

The Manziel factor

Further muddying the Browns' situation is the presence of the superstar rookie QB. Manziel was expected to start this season, but on and off-field factors moved him to the bench. He now presents a potential distraction if he again is benched in 2015 without an opportunity to compete for the job. The Browns would not be able to recover a first-round draft pick, as they did with Trent Richardson, if they traded him.

Hoyer already indicated he wants to sign long-term on a team "where he is playing," a clear message that he wants the Browns to make a firm decision. That brings up an interesting negotiation dynamic. If the Browns do not show a commitment to Hoyer, he likely will refuse to sign any extension during the season. He can't afford to sign an incentive-laden contract before free agency knowing he could be benched if the team turns to Manziel.

The Browns' decision

There's almost no benefit for the Browns to extend Hoyer now rather than waiting to see how the season plays out — the Fitzpatrick mistake in Buffalo should hammer that point home. Cleveland's salary cap is extremely flexible, and the Browns financially can deal with any situation.

Most contracts for low-level starters are for two years and range between $5 million (Josh McCown) and $8 million (Carson Palmer) per year in value. Even if he made the playoffs, it's debatable whether Hoyer's value can improve. Alex Smith, who had a much higher pedigree than Hoyer, hit free agency in 2012 after a run to the NFC Championship Game and found almost no interest outside San Francisco.

If the Browns decide to keep Hoyer, their best option is to mimic how the 49ers handled Smith in 2012. They were higher on Colin Kaepernick, but the backup was unproven and the 49ers wanted to hedge their bets with a modest contract for Smith — three years, no signing bonus and only $1 million in guarantees after the first year. It essentially gave San Francisco the ability to cut Smith after one season and switch quarterbacks.

That's the only way the Browns can keep both quarterbacks and maintain the flexibility to turn to either player. It may cause anxiety among fans, but it's the best plan for Cleveland.

Jason Fitzgerald is an NFL salary expert and contributor for Sporting News. Read more of his writing at OverTheCap.com and follow him on Twitter: @Jason_OTC.

Jason Fitzgerald

Jason Fitzgerald is an NFL salary expert and contributor for Sporting News. Read more of his writing at OverTheCap.com and follow him on Twitter: @Jason_OTC.