Blaine Gabbert won't be benched in Week 3, but he will be benched soon.
The San Francisco quarterback followed an above-average opening performance vs. Los Angeles with a shaky one in Sunday's 46-27 loss at Carolina. With that, his benching will come whenever Colin Kaepernick is fully healthy.
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In Week 1, Gabbert got away with mostly checkdowns as the 49ers ran the ball well against the inept Rams. In Week 2, with Carlos Hyde and the rushing attack erased, Gabbert struggled with accuracy against the Panthers (17 of 36, 243 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) in an outing coach Chip Kelly called "up and down."
On Monday, however, Kelly confirmed there are no plans to replace Gabbert before another brutal road matchup in Week 3 against the Seahawks.
"He's our starter and I have a lot of confidence in Blaine," Kelly told reporters. "We're not thinking or talking about not having Blaine in there."
But Kelly also kind of admitted Kaepernick isn't an option yet. Despite being healthy enough to play in the final two preseason games, Kaepernick still isn't in the best physical condition after fighting through multiple injuries during the offseason (shoulder, thumb, knee).
For now, with No. 3 QB Christian Ponder being a pure backup not worthy of starter consideration, that's what is keeping Gabbert No. 1.
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Kelly has a good idea of what Gabbert is — he flashes in games against weak opponents and fades hard against playoff-caliber teams. His game in Carolina was his worst since a terrible performance against Cincinnati in December. His ratings in two games this season are 84.2 and 64.9. That's about his ceiling and his floor as a passer.
Whether Gabbert is sitting in the pocket or flushed out, there's plenty of evidence to suggest the downfield accuracy on intermediate-to-deep balls will always be a limitation. Unless its Torrey Smith or Vance McDonald streaking past the defense before or after the catch with plenty of room for error, Gabbert doesn't deliver on those big plays. When Kaepernick is at his best, his accuracy stretching the field is his greatest attribute.
Gabbert runs well to make up for some of the pass plays he misses, but everyone knows his athleticism still doesn't match a healthy Kaepernick's game-changing speed.
Kaepernick can make more explosive plays in Kelly's offense, and the 49ers need them. He can do a lot more to mesh with their other playmakers, starting with Hyde in more true zone reads.
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Gabbert has been more than a serviceable placeholder, buying time as Kaepernick tries to restore his mojo on the field mentally and physically. But with a big QB decision (or not) coming in the draft, there's no way Kelly will go through the season not seeing what Kaepernick can do, especially considering the big bucks owed to the QB.
Gabbert will keep doing enough things wrong every week to raise questions about his starting status. As soon as Kaepernick is ready, Kelly will make the change. Expect that to happen before October ends.
