The Colts insist Andrew Luck will return this season after his recovery from January shoulder surgery. But as that projected return date moves later into the year, the question will only get louder: What's the point?
Luck experienced a setback in his recovery last week — the Colts called it "soreness" in his shoulder — a couple weeks after he was cleared to return to practice. According to CBS' Jason La Canfora, the setback means "the earliest anyone could consider Luck as a viable option would be Nov. 26."
"Luck will limit his activity for the next two weeks," La Canfora reported Sunday morning, "and he and the Colts are hopeful he can resume the program he was on, which called for gradually ramping up his workload over a series of weeks.
"Even at that point, given how much time he has missed and the surgery he is recovering from, Luck would still require multiple weeks of practice before being deemed clear to be active on a game day. Assuming he is back throwing by the end of this month, that puts long odds on him actually playing in November."
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The deeper Luck's recovery extends into the season, the more the Colts need to consider shutting him down and preserving the franchise's only irreplaceable player.
The decision won't be easy for a staff full of people coaching for their jobs in 2017. Yes, Luck's return late in the season could lead to a better record for the Colts, who were 2-4 entering Week 7 and one game out of the first place in the AFC South. The Jaguars, Texans and Titans were gridlocked at 3-3 atop the division.
But coach Chuck Pagano and his staff also have to consider the nightmare-inducing hypothetical of a premature Luck return leading to more long-term injury. How would that reflect on those in charge?
La Canfora cited "the club's potential position in the standings" as a reason the Colts "have no plans" to shut down Luck. And if the Colts are not in the playoff race, the thought is Indianapolis at least could "jumpstart him for 2018," according to the report.
But in dealing with a three-time Pro Bowl quarterback who has a career QB rating of 87.3 and is guaranteed at least $87 million over the next five years, a "jumpstart" 10 months before a season should be low on the list of priorities.
According to OverTheCap.com, the Colts are projected to have $87 million in cap room for 2018, the third most in the NFL. They're projected to have a top-five pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. They're starting a quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, who has proven worthy of offseason trade interest, meaning the Colts could use him as bait to acquire more draft picks or quality starters. They're in a position to let first-year GM Chris Ballard rebuild a roster with the luxury of having a star quarterback already in place.
Assuming that quarterback is available.
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Luck, meanwhile, is not going anywhere — that was reinforced here a month ago. His contract runs through the 2021 season. In that regard, one could argue this is a good problem to have. Managing Luck injuries for five years is better than five years without Luck.
Indianapolis' schedule before that Week 12 game against Tennessee features games against Jacksonville, at Cincinnati, at Houston and against Pittsburgh before a Week 11 bye. Indy closes the season at Jacksonville, at Buffalo, against Denver, at Baltimore and against Houston.
So yes, one can see why the Colts would look at that schedule — and their own division standings — and see reason for optimism. But one also can view the bigger picture and wonder whether Luck's long-term health is more important than flirting with a .500 record.