I've always believed NFL conference title games are the most pressure-filled of all playoff games. For any team other than the Patriots, for whom it's invariably Super Bowl victory or bust, a loss in this round is the ultimate downer.
I've been to the conference championship six times, and my teams won twice (1976 Vikings, 1999 Titans) and lost four times (Vikings in 1977, 1987 and 1998 and Titans in 2002). We lost the two Super Bowls in which my teams played, but it was absolutely more painful to lose in the NFC/AFC championship games.
As this year's final four teams are doing this week, we had done all of the logistics work to prepare for the Super Bowl. Planning meetings with the league office and officials in the Super Bowl city. Getting ready with the itinerary for Super Bowl week, ticket distribution, fan travel packages, hotel room allocations, team meeting rooms and offices ready to utilize at the team hotel, practice facility setup, buses reserved, arrival and post-game parties planned, family activities set up to keep them busy and not bothering the players and coaches.
It's such a disappointment to have all this planning in place and then lose, making it all for naught.
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PICKS:
Patriots vs. Jaguars | Eagles vs. Vikings
When a team hasn't been to a Super Bowl in a long time, it creates even more pressure and excitement once it reaches this point. That's certainly the case for three of the teams left, and none of them have ever been Super Bowl champions. The Eagles have not been to the Super Bowl since Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid led them there in 2004 (they also won the NFC title in 1980).
For the Vikings, it's been 41 years since their last of four appearances over an eight-year period from 1969-76. The Jaguars have lost in both of their previous conference championship appearances (1996 and ’99), so an upset win in New England would send them to the first Super Bowl in their 22-year history.
It's critical for the Eagles, Vikings and Jaguars to quickly put their exciting divisional round wins behind them and not just be happy to make it to the next round. The coaches will do the job of getting the players refocused, as Vikings coach Mike Zimmer did Monday after the thrilling win over the Saints, saying, "we're on to Philadelphia now."
The quarterbacks are always the key in big games, and it's usually the elite Pro Bowl QBs playing in these title games, such as last year, with Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. It's no surprise that Brady is back. But who would have predicted that Nick Foles, Case Keenum and Blake Bortles would be the other three QBs still standing?
In looking at the AFC title game, don't count on Jaguars corner Jalen Ramsey's prediction of a victory in Foxborough. The Patriots are in the AFC championship for an amazing seventh straight year. They've split those six games, but they clearly understand what it takes to win at this level. Plus, they're almost unbeatable in home playoff games — Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are 16-3 in the postseason at home. And can you really see Bortles outplaying Brady?
MATCHUP BREAKDOWNS:
AFC championship | NFC championship
The Jaguars’ defense is very good (No. 2-ranked), but the Steelers managed to score 42 points in the divisional round. Pittsburgh's defense didn't show up and let Leonard Fournette lead the way with 109 yards and three touchdowns on the ground while Bortles threw for 214 yards and didn't have a turnover. On Sunday, Belichick and Pats defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will have their defenders focused on stopping the run and forcing Bortles to beat them.
That was their formula against Derrick Henry and the Titans’ rushing attack, and it worked to perfection, as they held Henry to 28 yards rushing (after his 156-yard game against Kansas City) and then unleashed their pass rush on Marcus Mariota to the tune of eight sacks. The Pats’ secondary also matches up well with the Jags’ receivers and tight ends, creating more difficulty for Bortles. So I expect New England's defense to win the battle with Jacksonville's offense.
Meanwhile, Brady will spread the field with his receivers and hit Rob Gronkowski at key times. Brady will run the up-tempo offense and tire out the Jags defenders (as he did to the Titans) while the running game also will also play an important role for New England. I see the Patriots winning rather easily, 31-13.
The NFC championship should be a much closer game. The Eagles have the home field and a solid defense led by Fletcher Cox and Malcolm Jenkins, an effective running game (one-two punch with Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount behind a good O-line) and Foles playing with more confidence coming off a solid performance in the win over the Falcons.
The Vikings have the momentum from the “Minneapolis Miracle” and the feeling of being a team of destiny after that fantastic finish to beat the Saints. Minnesota is a better team than Atlanta — the Vikings beat the Falcons in Atlanta this season. The Vikings have the league's top-ranked defense and a solid offense directed by Keenum in a career season and an underrated receiving corps led by Pro Bowler Adam Thielen and last week's hero Stefon Diggs, along with an excellent tight end in Kyle Rudolph.
The Vikings’ offensive line needs to open some holes in the running game against the league's No.1 rush defense so the offense can be somewhat balanced. They also need to protect Keenum better than they did in the second half against the Saints, but Keenum does a good job of stepping up to avoid pressure and can run when necessary.
Minnesota's defense also is excellent against the run (No. 2-ranked) and must not get worn down in the pass rush, as Drew Brees did to them with his up-tempo offense in the second half of the divisional game. But Foles is definitely not Brees, so look for more blitzes to be called by Zimmer and defensive coordinator George Edwards. Vikings Pro Bowl defensive end Everson Griffen has an advantageous matchup with Eagles left tackle Halapoulivaati Vaita, who may need some extra help. Also, corner Mackenzie Alexander will need to play better in coverage than he did against New Orleans.
DIAMOND: What "Minneapolis Miracle" means for Vikings, NFL history
Zimmer predicts the team that runs the ball better and wins the turnover battle will win. Turnovers always are critical, but I think both teams will struggle to run, so the team that plays better pass defense and has the superior quarterbacking will prevail. I like the Minnesota defense a little more and Keenum's poise and clutch play over Foles, who has not led the Eagles to 20 points or more in the last three games.
Playing outdoors with a hostile crowd shouldn't bother the Vikings, who shut out the Packers 16-0 at Lambeau in Week 16. I'm admittedly Vikings-biased based on my Minnesota roots, but looking at this game as objectively as I can, I see the Vikings winning a relatively low scoring game, 20-17 on a late Kai Forbath field goal.
That would set up an interesting Super Bowl matchup of New England with the league's top offense against Minnesota's No. 1 defense. Plus a productive Vikings offense vs. an improved Patriots defense. And a home game to boot for the Vikings in Minneapolis.
Jeff Diamond is a former president of the Titans and former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
