Michigan is ranked No. 11 in the preseason AP Poll, and that alone is going to incite a two-sided over-reaction.
Some might feel Jim Harbaugh has a top-10 team entering his third season, and that was reflected in both the Coaches Poll and SN's preseason rankings. Others would point out the Wolverines have lost 17 starters, and that it's easy to question whether Michigan is overrated heading into 2017.
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It's easy to see why that second narrative exists. Harbaugh is polarizing because of the social media phenomenon he has created since coming to Ann Arbor. The "hasn't-finished-higher-than-third-place-in-own-division" line is the most frequent citation. Michigan hasn't won a Big Ten championship since 2004. Will Harbaugh meet the hype?
It's not like we haven't seen Michigan overvalued in the past. Since winning the AP national championship in 1997, Michigan has opened the season in the top 10 nine times. The Wolverines finished in the top 10 in just three of those seasons.
Michigan beat Ohio State in two of those three seasons (1999, 2003), winning an outright Big Ten championship in the latter. Those seasons ended up in the Orange and Rose bowls, respectively. The good news is the Wolverines don't have that pressure of being a top 10 team to tart 2017 — and they've thrived in that situation in the past. Just look at the Wolverines in 2016 — only Harbaugh's second in Ann Arbor.
Despite losing three of the last four games, Michigan reached the 10-win benchmark again, earned a berth in a New Year's Day Six bowl and inched ever closer toward the Big Ten championship.
The Wolverines have had about the same luck when starting outside the top 10. Michigan finished in the top 10 in 2002 and '06, started those season ranked No. 12 and No. 14, respectively. The 1997 team opened No. 14 in the AP Poll. Here's another look at those six seasons where the Wolverines finished in the top 10:
| YEAR | PRE | FINAL | RECORD |
| 1997 | 14 | 1 | 12-0 |
| 1999 | 8 | 5 | 10-3 |
| 2002 | 12 | 9 | 10-3 |
| 2003 | 4 | 6 | 10-3 |
| 2006 | 14 | 8 | 11-2 |
| 2016 | 7 | 10 | 10-3 |
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So if Harbaugh delivers on the hype, and the Wolverines finish in the top 10, then chances are Michigan will have finished higher than third place in their own division — and will have a chance at that elusive Big Ten championship.
How does that apply to this season? Michigan will have an inexperienced team, and quarterback Wilton Speight hasn't officially been named the starter, despite leading last year's 10-3 team. The Wolverines are ranked behind No. 2 Ohio State and No. 6 Penn State and travel to No. 9 Wisconsin.
Michigan, however, can buck all that with a victory against No. 17 Florida in the opener Sept. 2 at Jerry World. It's a highly visible opener for Harbaugh, and could be a springboard to another 10-win season. That would land Michigan in the top 10 again, too. If the Wolverines manage those expectations and beat Ohio State, then Harbaugh will have something to tweet about, Michigan will finish higher than third in the Big Ten East and will get a shot at the Big Ten championship.
At that point, the ranking would take care of itself.
