Each week Sporting News' Bill Bender will take a look at the national college football landscape in "Around the Bender." This week has a heavy focus on the marquee matchup between Alabama and Florida State, but we also talk Group of 5 busters and coaches on the hot seat.
Crimson Tide Sports Network color analyst Phil Savage can't help but laugh out loud when he runs the numbers.
How often is Alabama not in the hunt of the national championship picture? Consider this stat since 2008:
"Three regular-season games," Savage told Sporting News. "Really the last three games of the 2010 season. Every other game involving Alabama there's been national championship implications involved. They've been in the hunt 108 of the last 111 games."
MORE: Bama vs. FSU: 'The greatest opener of all time'
Savage emphasized that statistic in his new book "4th and Goal Every Day: Alabama's Relentless Pursuit of Perfection," published just in time for the start of the 2017 college football season.
The beat goes on. No. 1 Alabama has won four of the last eight national championships and heads into the "greatest opener of all time" against No. 3 Florida State at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday. The winner will have a lap on the rest of the field when it comes to the College Football Playoff race.
There's the notion that the season doesn't start until Alabama loses. Unless, of course, you are Alabama.
"There are probably some people who perceive it that way but I know within the program at Alabama they don't look at it that way at all," Savage said. "I promise you their preparation for FSU will be the same next week for the other FSU, Fresno State. They do not take winning for granted there."
Savage is quick to point out Ohio State, Clemson and Florida State as programs that have raised the bar in their respective conferences. Those are the only other programs with active coaches with national titles. That's why the Alabama-and-everybody-else-narrative exists.
MORE: How does No. 1 handle top 25 teams in openers?
It's a fleeting thought, but an Alabama loss to Florida State could shake up the entire season: Consider that the preseason No. 1 hasn't lost a season-opener since No. 16 BYU beat No. 1 Miami 24-21 in 1990. Five different teams held the No. 1 spot that season afterward, including Notre Dame, Michigan, Virginia and Colorado. The Buffaloes split the national championship with Coaches Poll national champion Georgia Tech. It was a wild year.
In theory, an Alabama loss could start that kind of chain reaction. It will be easy to proclaim the dynasty is over after back-to-back losses to ACC powerhouses Clemson and Florida State.
Or the Crimson Tide could simply work their way back to the College Football Playoff and get a rematch with Florida State in the Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl — 108 of the last 111 games says that's entirely possible.
Not that we're counting on a loss. Alabama is 10-0 in openers under Saban, and that includes five wins against top 25 teams and a margin of victory 29.2 points per game. Like Savage said, the Crimson Tide doesn't take winning for granted, even if the rest of us might.
That's why they'll be in the hunt all year no matter what happens Saturday night in Atlanta.
MORE: Preseason No. 1 vs. national champ: Tide has another shot
Strike a Pose
Alabama-Florida State also offers Jalen Hurts and Deondre Francois the chance to make the first definitive Heisman statement.
Hurts led the would-be game-winning-drive against Clemson in the College Football Playoff championship game last year, and he'll look to improve with new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Hurts completed 62.8 percent of his passes last year, and if that numbers continues to go up everything will fall into place for the Tide offense. Alabama has never had a quarterback win the Heisman Trophy.
Florida State can claim Charlie Ward, Chris Weinke and Jameis Winston. There's an expectation that goes into playing quarterback there, and imagine the bump Francois would get if he knocks off the top-ranked Tide. He averaged 8.4 yards per passing attempt, but had a 58.8 percent completion percentage.
We're excited to see the progression of both quarterbacks. One might be holding the College Football Playoff championship at the end of the season.
Coaches on the spot
Last year's opener between Texas A&M and UCLA — a thriller the Aggies won 31-24 — was perceived as a hot seat bowl of sorts. Texas A&M finished 8-5 and UCLA 4-8, and Kevin Sumlin and Jim Mora Jr. are in the same spot heading into Sunday's comebacker.
They both need this one. The Bruins can't look back at the Josh Rosen era and say, "We couldn't run the football." UCLA averaged 2.8 yards per rushing attempt last season. Texas A&M can't go 8-5 again with a .500 finish in the SEC West. Sumlin still hasn't found the right quarterback since Johnny Manziel left town.
Keep in mind these teams' surroundings, and the flagship programs in their respective states. USC is the "it" program in California again, let alone Los Angeles. Texas just hired Tom Herman. For a game between two unranked teams, this one has plenty of heat. The loser will feel the brunt of it.
G5 focus
Only four Group of 5 schools have won 10 or more games each of the last two seasons. That short list includes Western Kentucky (23-5), Temple (20-8), San Diego State (21-6) and Appalachian State (21-5).
The Mountaineers are in the spotlight again this week, 10 years after the legendary upset against Michigan that helped vault the program into the national limelight. App State took Tennessee into overtime in the opener last year and gets another swing at a traditional SEC power in Georgia this week. They are armed with an experienced quarterback in Taylor Lamb and an explosive running back in Jalin Moore.
Appalachian State coach Scott Satterfield knows the ground game will be the key to any shot at another upset.
"It's going to be extremely difficult," Satterfield said on the Sun Belt teleconference. "If you look at their front seven in particular, they have tremendous size. Their shortest guy is 6-4, one of their outside linebackers is 6-6, 240 and really impressed with their two inside linebackers in the box. … You just try to find some ways to get the ground attack moving a little bit so you can stay on the sticks."
Over/under
Pitt and Syracuse set an FBS record last season in a 76-61 shootout that netted 137 points. The over/under on the Oklahoma State-Tulsa opener is a little more than half of that, in the low 70s.
The Cowboys are a preseason darling pegged by a few publications to make a run to the College Football Playoff with the tandem of Mason Rudolph and James Washington leading the offense. If you're looking for the team that should lead the FBS in scoring, Oklahoma State is it.
"We had a lot of excitement," Oklahoma State Mike Gundy said on the Big 12 teleconference Monday. "Because of social media and our exposure, it's more than ever."
Tulsa can score under third-year coach Philip Montgomery. Running back D'Angelo Brewer returns for a Golden Hurricane team coming off a 10-win season. Tulsa ranked third in the FBS with 88.2 plays per game last season.
Translation? This should be the highest-scoring game of the first weekend provided both teams don't have a blatant case of first-quarter jitters.
Think about it …
Which thing happened more recently: Florida losing a season-opener, or Indiana beating Ohio State?
The Gators have won 27 straight such games, the last loss coming in 1989 when Ole Miss beat the Gators 24-19 in a rare SEC conference opener.
Speaking of rare openers, Indiana opens with Ohio State on Thursday. The Hoosiers haven't beat the Buckeyes since 1988, when they won 41-7 in Bloomington. Ohio State is 20.5-favorites against the Hoosiers, while Florida opens the season as a 3.5-point underdog in Jerry World against Michigan.
Chances are, Buckeyes' fans would like to see both streaks continue.
