No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Florida State meet at the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday in what's rightfully being hyped as the "Greatest Opener of All Time."
It's also the riskiest opener of all time. After all, one of these heavyweights will start the season in a 0-1 hole, and from the start of the Bowl Championship Series in 1998 only one two-loss team — LSU in 2007 — had the chance to play for a national championship.
There is seemingly no margin for error for the loser after Saturday. Why take that risk?
WEEK 1 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
The reasons are simple. That winner gets a huge nonconference victory — the biggest nonconference chip for 2017. That loser likely will get leniency from the College Football Playoff later, perhaps even if that team loses a second game.
Should that lead to second-guessing when scheduling nonconference games in the future?
"I would take this game 10 out of 10 times if I was asked to do it," ESPN "College GameDay” analyst Kirk Herbstreit told Sporting News this week. "It has everything to do with what your goals are. If it's to remain unbeaten, then you want to play whoever, some cupcake. If your goal is to challenge your players and your program, which is what 18-22-year-old kids want to be involved with, you take this game."
Herbstreit is right. It's a risk worth taking in the College Football Playoff era. Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl CEO Gary Stokan detected that from Alabama coach Nick Saban and Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher. Both coaches wanted to play in a game like this, but Fisher waited until 2013 before committing to the game.
That's going to present an interesting dilemma for the College Football Playoff committee down the line. This might be college football's biggest opener, but in terms of this season it's the biggest nonconference pelt a team can show the committee. Penn State didn't have that nonconference pelt last season, and Ohio State did when it beat a top-10 opponent in Oklahoma. That's the biggest reason why the one-loss Buckeyes went to the College Football Playoff and the two-loss conference champion Nittany Lions stayed home.
MORE: Alabama vs. FSU: Keys to victory
If either Alabama or Florida State loses two games in the regular season, then that doesn't necessarily mean it would be eliminated from the College Football Playoff hunt. Herbstreit, using FSU as an example, said the Seminoles likely would drop to around No. 6 in the AP Poll if they lose to the Crimson Tide.
"They aren't going anywhere as far as the committee is concerned,” Herbstreit said. "If anything, the committee when it comes to them and somebody else who took an easier route, my guess is based on what the committee tells us is despite the loss the willingness to play in that kind of game should trump a team that took the cupcake route even though they have a better record. We'll see.”
We'll see, indeed. Sporting News picked both Alabama and Florida State to make the College Football Playoff in 2017. The Crimson Tide lost one regular season game in five out of the last six years, and still has to march toward a fourth consecutive SEC championship. The Seminoles still must battle through the ACC Atlantic, which includes defending national champion Clemson, not to mention Louisville, which beat the Seminoles 63-20 last season and boasts reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson.
That leads to, perhaps, the most important point for Saturday: It's OK to lose, but college football is a game of perception, even in the eyes of the committee. The final score matters in this matchup.
"If you lose the game but you are competitive, it really doesn't hurt you," Herbstreit said. "Whoever loses this game, if it's 27-23 or 24-21 a good game. It's not going to hurt you at all. If you get blown out and humiliated, then it's going to hurt you a lot."
That's the biggest risk of all in this game. Don't get knocked out on national television. Other than that, there's no reason not to play on the biggest stage possible to start the season. No. 1 vs. No. 3; ACC vs. SEC; new Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Everybody — including the next batch of recruits — is watching, and it's going to feel like a College Football Playoff game.
Yeah, you take that risk. You take it 10 out of 10 times.
