Michigan’s Big Ten, College Football Playoff and national championship hopes took a serious hit with reports starting quarterback Wilton Speight suffered a broken collarbone that will knock him out for the rest of the regular season.
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh didn't rule Speight out for the season yet, but the Wolverines’ fate could rest with backup John O’Korn for the final two games of the regular season and perhaps the Big Ten championship game.
MORE: Week 12 bowl projections
We know the popular reaction: Michigan is toast. No chance to win at Ohio State on Nov. 26. No chance to make the College Football Playoff. No chance for a national championship. No chance, no chance, no chance.
That’s not going to be the script for Harbaugh’s pregame speech against Indiana on Saturday. Sure, it’s going to be a lot more difficult for the Wolverines to attain all of those goals with O’Korn at quarterback. Bovada’s odds for Michigan to win the championship were 5/1. Those odds will get a lot bigger in the coming days, if not hours.
Just don’t jump off the ship completely. Big Ten Network analyst Gerry DiNardo took an approach everybody should follow:mWait and see what happens in the aftermath of Speight’s injury.
“There predicts to be a drop-off but we won’t know until he starts playing, but I don’t think they are out of the championship hunt because of that,” DiNardo told Sporting News. “Obviously it makes a difference, but we don’t how much of a difference.”
No chance? Didn’t we say that in 2014 when Heisman Trophy candidate J.T. Barrett went down and Cardale Jones stepped in at quarterback for the Buckeyes and led an improbable national championship run? Yeah, that happened.
Is this different? Of course, but not as much as you think. It’s about the system, and O’Korn has been in that system long enough. The Houston transfer battled with Speight for the starting job in the spring, and that battle was at least competitive. Can O’Korn play?
“That’s something we have to wait and see play out,” DiNardo said. “It was a tight competition to start and he has some starting experience.”
O’Korn was a full-time starter at Houston and passed for 28 TDs in 2013. O’Korn at least has one start at home against the Hoosiers before even thinking about the Buckeyes, and this is going to test the next-man-up theory along with Harbaugh’s uncanny knack with quarterbacks. Didn’t Harbaugh do that once in San Francisco and go to a Super Bowl? Yeah, that happened, too.
O’Korn isn’t Colin Kaepernick by any means, but he doesn’t have to be. Michigan’s system isn’t built around the quarterback. It’s built around multiple sets on offense, a running game and a strong defense that didn’t have much support in the 14-13 loss to Iowa on Saturday. Jones did that for Ohio State. O’Korn can do the same at Michigan.
The biggest test for O’Korn — and it’s where Speight will potentially be missed the most — was the ability to throw the ball downfield to wide receivers Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh. Speight was ineffective in that area for really the first time at Iowa last week, and by no surprise the Wolverines lost their first game of the season. This will put more focus on the play-calling and keeping O’Korn out of trouble situations. Expect a game plan similar to the one the Wolverines used with Jake Rudock last season, at least against the Hoosiers. Reserve judgment for the Buckeyes until afterward.
MORE: Good luck sorting through the chaos, CFP committee
Were you giving Michigan a chance to win at Ohio State to begin with? The Wolverines haven’t won there since 2000, and given the way Speight looked against the Hawkeyes this isn’t that much different. The best hope for Michigan is to rely on that defense, make it ugly and catch a few breaks.
It almost happened in 2012. That year, when Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson was injured. Devin Gardner took over at quarterback, Robinson played some tailback and Michigan took the No. 4 Buckeyes to the limit in just his fourth start. Ohio State won 26-20, but the Wolverines had their chances. They’ll have them again in Columbus no matter who is under center.
Will this affect the College Football Playoff rankings? Of course it will. Michigan might drop an extra spot this week — think No. 5 or No. 6 — until those committee members can see O’Korn in action and recalibrate that ranking. The Wolverines will be treated differently without Speight, but the fact that he could return in the playoff is significant. This isn’t 1973 — every Michigan and Ohio State fan knows where this is going — when the Wolverines played the Buckeyes to a legendary 10-10 tie, but Michigan quarterback Dennis Franklin suffered a broken collarbone in the game. Ohio State was voted to go to the Rose Bowl ahead of the Wolverines.
This is a new era, and the Wolverines’ road is still straight forward. Win out with O’Korn and win the Big Ten, and they are in the College Football Playoff. They will get that chance. Until they lose, they have those Big Ten, College Football Playoff and national championship hopes on the field. They have that chance. Speight could be back, too, at some point. Harbaugh didn't rule it out.
A chance is better than no chance.
