Credit Ohio State Urban Meyer for not getting caught up in a conversation that’s going to intensify over the next two to three weeks if the chalk holds in the Big Ten East Division race. Meyer, however, isn’t focused on those College Football Playoff rankings right now.
“I will not watch it,” he said on the Big Ten teleconference Tuesday. “We’ve got to get ready for Michigan State.”
The rest of us will go there with the Buckeyes because it’s that first real threat to plunge the College Football Playoff into pure chaos. Ohio State’s predicament could be the test of all tests for the committee if that Bit Ten chalk holds.
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Here’s the test: Ohio State is No. 2 in the rankings, which were unveiled Tuesday. If they win out and No. 8 Penn State wins out, then the two-loss Nittany Lions would represent the Big Ten East in the conference championship game by virtue of their head-to-head victory against the Buckeyes. One-loss Ohio State would sit home but seemingly still be in position to make the playoff.
That’s the potential debate that could re-shape the College Football Playoff thinking for years to come. To this point, every playoff team won their conference championship. It’s always fun to talk about teams that don’t win a conference making the playoff, but Ohio State can force the issue.
“We would find out how important the championship label is,” Big Ten Network analyst Gerry DiNardo told SN. “We don’t know all these things. … They are going to do what they think is right with the best four teams in the end hoping they don’t get put in a situation like this where the best team in a conference isn’t the champion.”
DiNardo said one sentence will shape this committee’s playoff thinking: “This is an art, not a science.”
There are other variables at work, too. The Big Ten has four of the top eight teams in the playoff. Ohio State still has to beat Michigan State this week and No. 3 Michigan on Nov. 26. The Wolverines’ path to Indianapolis is much more straightforward. Win out, and the Wolverines are in because they beat Penn State in the regular season.
No. 7 Wisconsin also controls its destiny in the Big Ten West. The Badgers lost to Ohio State, but they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country. They could get a rematch with the Buckeyes or Wolverines or take on the Nittany Lions. That’s led to more conventional thinking about their fate.
“Wisconsin wins out and they beat Penn State in the finals, I think Wisconsin would be in the playoffs,” DiNardo said.
The art vs. science debate would be heated between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions. Penn State own head-to-head but has one more loss. The Buckeyes are ranked No. 2 now, a nod to how good the committee thinks they are. How would that hold up if chalk wins out?
“Would they pick Ohio State over Penn State if Ohio State won out and Penn State won the Big Ten championship?” DiNardo asks. “I think if they think they look better on tape they will. Same thing with Wisconsin — if Wisconsin wins, though I think their case is stronger. Then the issue becomes, ‘Will they take two teams from the Big Ten?’ That’s where we are headed.”
So Ohio State could make the playoff. They could be the only Big Ten team or they could be one of two Big Ten teams along with Penn State or Wisconsin. The committee could avoid the question and put two teams from the same conference in at the expense of two conference champions (probably Pac-12 and Big 12) and a one-loss contender like Louisville.
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Ohio State could break the playoff. Penn State could win the Big Ten and get passed over in favor of the Buckeyes. Could you imagine the reaction to that? That would qualify as art over science, and then some. The Nittany Lions would have that head-to-head and a conference title, but two losses are more than one. The committee would answer the question with Ohio State, and the fallout would be off the charts.
Ohio State could revolutionize the playoff, too. Once a non-conference champion cracks the top four, that’s going to force the Power 5 to re-think conference championship games. If the committee doesn’t value them, then what’s the point other than television money? That would lead to more questions.
Are there enough teams? TCU and Ohio State — teams that were left out the last two seasons — made that case with convincing New Year’s Day Six Bowl victories the last two seasons. The Buckeyes were dangerously close to being a one-loss team without a conference title to get in the playoff last year. This would renew the call for playoff expansion, perhaps to six teams.
“Six doesn’t solve the problem,” DiNardo said. “Because what happens if there should be three teams in the same conference in there?”
DiNardo is right on target. There’s going to be this kind of debate whether it’s four, six or eight teams. Ohio State is just the team that could take it to the limit first. This is so much different because right now the Buckeyes are considered the team that could give No. 1 Alabama the biggest challenge. That’s reflected in the rankings.
Which scenario seems most plausible? Ohio State is going to stir up some form of chaos, especially if they win out. They are in much better position to do that this year. Of course, we have to let it play out.
That leads back to Meyer. Don’t bother him with any of this. He’s busy getting ready for Michigan State.
Given what happened last year against the Spartans, that’s the best possible scenario for the Buckeyes right now.
