No. 3 Ole Miss (7-0, 4-0) is for real. How do we know?
No. 24 LSU (6-2, 2-2) is an underdog at home for the first time since Oct. 10, 2009, when No. 1 Florida escaped Death Valley with a 13-3 win. The Rebels (-3.5) have the chance to continue their special season, while the Tigers are making their last stand to stay in a loaded SEC West division.
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Who has the advantage in Baton Rouge? Let’s look at the Numbers that Matter:
Series
The “Magnolia Bowl” dates back to 1894, and the Tigers have a 58-40-4 advantage. This marks the eighth meeting between the teams when both are ranked in the AP Top 25. LSU has a 4-3 advantage in those games, the last a 17-14 win in 2003.
Signature games: 1959
No. 3 Ole Miss (6-0) traveled to No. 1 LSU (7-0) on Halloween Night, and the Tigers prevailed 7-3 on Heisman Trophy winner Billy Cannon’s legendary 89-yard punt return for a touchdown.
The Rebels won the rematch 21-0 in the 1960 Sugar Bowl, but Syracuse was given the AP national championship instead of Ole Miss.
Les Miles vs. Hugh Freeze
Miles is 6-3 against Ole Miss, but four of the last five meetings have been decided by one score or less. The Rebels stole two of those games, including last year’s 27-24 win in Oxford. Hugh Freeze is 1-1 against the Tigers.
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Bring the defense
Ole Miss leads the nation in scoring defense (10.6), but the Tigers (17.0) rank 10th in the same department. LSU has allowed just 44 points in five home games.
Spotlight player: Bo Wallace, QB, Ole Miss
Bo Wallace picked up his first career road win against a SEC opponent on Oct. 11 against Texas A&M. He’s 1-4 with a 4:6 TD:INT ratio in that situation. Wallace, however, averages 328 passing yards in two career starts against LSU. He finished 30-of-39 for 346 yards in last year’s win.
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On the spot: Anthony Jennings, QB, LSU
LSU’s Anthony Jennings is the starter for the Tigers. He’s 2-2 in SEC play. He hasn’t thrown an interception in those games, but he’s also completed just 49.3 percent of his passes.
Key matchup: Leonard Fournette vs. Robert Nkemdiche
Both former five-star recruits will be in the spotlight in this game. Fournette, a 6-foot-1, 224-pound freshman, averages 4.4 yards per carry in SEC play. He’s held been to 42 rushing yards or less in three of those four games, however. Nkemdiche has just two sacks, but his presence has helped freshman Marquis Haynes, who leads the Rebels with 6.5 sacks.
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Keep an eye on: LSU receivers
Travin Dural (25.6 yards per catch) and Malchi Dupre (23.4 yards per catch) are home-run hitters in the passing game. They’ve combined for 11 TDs. Dural’s average TD catch covers 39 yards; Dupre’s average TD catch covers 24 yards.
In-game trend: Quick strike vs. ground attack
Ole Miss wide receivers Laquon Treadwell, Vince Sanders and Cody Core all have at least 20 receptions and four TDs apiece, and tight end Evan Engram is a NFL prospect who averages 15.4 yards per catch. LSU counters that with the same-old power rushing attack that averages 222.4 rushing yards per game. Fournette, Kenny Hilliard and Terrence Magee. Those three combine to average 5.2 yards per carry.
Stat that matters: First-quarter scoring
Ole Miss has mastered the fast start this season, outscoring opponents 55-3 in the opening quarter. LSU, meanwhile, outscores opponents 75-58 in the first quarter, by far their worst quarter. The Rebels have an opportunity here to take an early lead.
Did you know?
The last time LSU lost to both Mississippi State and Ole Miss at home in the same season was 1956.
Bottom line
The Rebels can start fast, but it might come down to the fourth quarter. Would Miles have it any other way? LSU has a +52 point differential in the final quarter this season, while Ole Miss has a +57 differential. No lead will be safe, and it’s likely a one-score game. If it’s close late, the Tigers might just throw the latest wrench in the SEC West race. Don’t be surprised if that’s exactly what happens.
