It’s Alabama vs. LSU.
Really, that’s all you need, but there’s so much more to the best contemporary college football game available.
The SEC West stakes. No. 6 Alabama (7-1) and No. 16 LSU (7-2) are playing not only for the division but for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The coaching matchup. Nick Saban vs. Les Miles is every bit as good Woody Hayes vs. Bo Schembechler or Steve Spurrier vs. Bobby Bowden. Oh, and by the way, Lane Kiffin also is in the house.
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The backdrop. It’s Tiger Stadium in primetime, with Verne and Gary on the call. What more do you need?
Let's look at the Numbers that Matter:
BEST MATCHUP POSSIBLE
The Crimson Tide and Tigers have a combined record of 166-38 since 2007, a winning percentage of .814. That’s the best statistical matchup possible among Power 5 schools in that stretch.
SABAN VS. MILES
Saban owns a 5-3 advantage head-to-head against Miles, and that includes a win in the 2012 BCS championship game. Saban also is 2-1 at Tiger Stadium, though those three games have been decided by a total of 13 points.
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HEISMAN HOPEFUL: AMARI COOPER, WR, ALABAMA
Amari Cooper ranks second in the nation with 141.5 receiving yards per game and fifth in receptions (71). LSU sophomore cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Rashard Robinson will have their hands full; Mississippi State’s Jameon Lewis and Auburn’s Sammie Coates both had more than 100 yards against the Tigers this season.
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SPOTLIGHT PLAYER: LEONARD FOURNETTE, RB, LSU
The five-star freshman averages 5.0 yards per carry, and he had 23 carries for 113 yards against Ole Miss on Oct. 25. Leonard Fournette, however, hasn’t scored a touchdown in three games against ranked opponents.
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ON THE SPOT: BLAKE SIMS, QB, ALABAMA
For all the scrutiny, Blake Sims ranks second in the nation with a 172.7 passer rating, and he hasn’t thrown an interception in Alabama’s last three games. Sims has a 57.9 completion percentage on the road, which is much lower than his 69.2 mark at home.
X-FACTORS: DEFENSIVE GAME-CHANGERS
Which defensive player can impose their well? Will it be LSU defensive end Danielle Hunter, a 6-6, 240-pounder who leads the Tigers with 10 tackles for loss? Or will Alabama linebacker Xzavier Dickson, who leads the Tide with 6.5 sacks, be the difference maker?
THE SLEEPER: T.J. YELDON, RB, ALABAMA
T.J. Yeldon rushed 25 times for 133 yards and a pair of TDs in last year’s game, and he caught the game-winning TD in 2012. Yeldon has just one rushing TD this season. Is this the game he breaks loose?
WHAT TO WATCH: PASSING ATTEMPTS
Jennings’ most passing attempts came against Mississippi State, when he finished 13-of-26 passing for 157 yards. He had less than 10 completions against Wisconsin, Auburn and Ole Miss. Will Miles break tendency and let Jennings loose after the bye week?
DID YOU KNOW?
In the eight head-to-head meetings between Saban and Miles, neither Alabama nor LSU has entered the game with more than two losses.
MAGIC NUMBER: 4.7/2.5
Per usual, this game will be decided on the ground. Take a look at these rushing statistics from the last eight games:
When Alabama wins:
Alabama: 164.6 yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry
LSU: 103.4 yards per game, 2.8 yards per carry
When LSU wins:
Alabama: 72.7 yards per game, 2.3 yards per carry
LSU: 153.3 yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry
Split the differences, and the team that averages around 4.7 yards per carry and allows 2.5 yards per carry wins the game.
BOTTOM LINE
Alabama broke open a 38-17 win against LSU with 21 second-half points last year. It won’t be as easy on the road, but it’s really quite simple. The team that wins the rushing battle gets this game, provided Sims or Jennings avoids the big mistake. This is college football’s marquee game for a reason. Sims is the key — he can also make plays with his legs (250 rushing yards, 5 TDs). That’s the difference in a one-score win for the Tide.
