You could look at Michigan's loss in one of two ways.
Scenario 1: No. 6 Michigan lost three of their last four games after starting 9-0 and the Jim Harbaugh hype machine is just that: a social media hype train bound to go off the tracks at any time.
Scenario 2: Or you could say that the Wolverines (10-3) lost three games by five points — including Friday night’s 33-32 loss to No. 11 Florida State in the Capital One Orange Bowl — and are close to taking that next-level step under Harbaugh.
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The second scenario is the right choice, once the Wolverines find that missing piece to become a true national championship contender. That missing piece couldn’t have been more obvious against the Seminoles (10-3). Michigan still can’t push around a big-time opponent when they need to in the running game. And that’s the biggest challenge under Harbaugh. Once the Wolverines can do that, they’ll be ready for the Big Ten championship, College Football Playoff and maybe more.
Michigan couldn’t run the ball against Florida State until it was too late. The Wolverines had seven carries for zero yards after the first quarter and 15 carries for 23 yards at halftime. At that point, the Seminoles had a 255-83 advantage in total yards and a 20-6 advantage on the scoreboard. By the time they found something with De’Veon Smith and Chris Evans — who had the go-ahead 30-yard touchdown run with 1:57 left — it was almost too late. The Wolverines finished with 36 carries for a season-low 89 yards (2.5 yards-per-carry average).
There’s the common thread in those three losses. Michigan had 114 rushing attempts for 278 yards in losses to Iowa, Ohio State and Florida State. That’s 2.4 yards per carry. Wilton Speight’s injury might have been a factor, but Michigan simply couldn’t run the ball when it had to in big-time games. Florida State, meanwhile, watched Dalvin Cook rush 20 times for 145 yards while looking like a first-round back the entire time.
That’s all Michigan needs. That’s what Harbaugh has wanted since Day 1. At his first Big Ten Media Day he was asked where he wanted that running game to be. “We want it to be dominant,” he replied.
It’s not dominant yet.
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This is the school that produced 4,000-yard rushers at running back such as Mike Hart, Anthony Thomas, Jamie Morris and Tyrone Wheatley. Evans might be part of the answer next season, but that’s what makes Michigan’s pursuit of five-star running back Najee Harris, an Alabama verbal commit, that much more important over the next month. The Wolverines also have five offensive linemen verbally committed in the upcoming class. A road-grader running game is what has kept this team from moving to the next level. This loss proved Michigan wasn’t quite ready for the College Football Playoff yet, even if it’s close.
Everything else is in place. The defense — even without linebacker Jabrill Peppers — settled in after a bad start against Florida State, and will be able to fill around its defensive line and defensive coordinator Don Brown’s scheme. Speight will improve at quarterback under Harbaugh, and it’s clear this program is in a better place than when he first arrived. Michigan nearly beat Florida State without that dominant running game, and after a bad start.
Harbaugh isn’t hype either. Michigan is 20-6 the last two seasons. Only five Power 5 programs have better records since Harbaugh’s arrival, and three of those schools are in the College Football Playoff. That list includes Alabama (27-1), Clemson (26-2), Ohio State (23-2), Oklahoma (21-4) and Stanford (22-5). Harbaugh built a dominant rushing attack with the Cardinal, and it will get there with the Wolverines. There will be more pressure to deliver for Harbaugh in that third year, especially with the social media hype train he’s created. Those playoff teams aren’t going to wait, especially Ohio State.
The first two years have been a success, and Michigan will take the next step soon enough. They can be a true national championship contender under Harbaugh for sure.
You’ll know it’s happening when they push around a big-time opponent when they need to in the running game.
