It’s going to be hard to top last year’s Iron Bowl.
How did that one end again?
The stakes are the same for No. 2 Alabama (10-1), which is in the middle of the hunt for the four-team College Football Playoff. No. 15 Auburn (8-3) is playing a role of the spoiler, this time in Tuscaloosa. Saturday's kickoff is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET.
Who has the advantage in the Iron Bowl? Let’s take a closer look at the Numbers that Matter.
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Series
Auburn won the first meeting 40-16 in 1893, and the schools have played every year since 1948. Alabama leads the series 42-35-1, and the Tide also own the longest win streak in the series at nine from 1973-81.
Nick Saban vs. Auburn
Between head coaching stops at LSU and Alabama, Nick Saban is 6-6 against Auburn. He’s 2-1 at Tuscaloosa, the last a 49-0 win in 2012.
Gus Malzahn vs. Alabama
Malzahn has coached in four Iron Bowls, three as an offensive coordinator with the Tigers from 2009-11 and one as a head coach last year. Auburn averages 297.3 total yards of offense in those games, but the Tigers racked up 393 total yards last season. Auburn is 2-2 in those games.
Spotlight player: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
Is Cooper the best player on the field? He had six catches for 178 yards in last year’s loss to the Tigers, including a 99-yard touchdown reception. The Tigers have allowed 15 TD passes in SEC play this season, so Cooper will get his chances to prove it.
On the spot: Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Auburn
Tre Mason rushed for 164 yards in last year’s win against the Tide. Here’s a simple stat to follow. Auburn is 2-0 against ranked SEC teams (LSU, Ole Miss) when Artis-Payne rushes more than 100 yards. The Tigers are 0-2 against ranked SEC teams (Mississippi State, Georgia) when he doesn’t. Artis-Payne has to come through.
Key matchup: Blake Sims vs. Nick Marshall
Of course, the quarterbacks will be the focus Saturday. Sims is getting his first taste of the Iron Bowl, but it helps he’s in the comforts of home. Sims averages 10.5 yards per pass attempt with 14 TDs and two interceptions at home this season. Marshall, meanwhile, is working through a late-season funk in which he has two TDs and two interceptions the last three weeks. Marshall totaled 262 yards and three touchdowns in last year’s win against Alabama.
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X-factor: Lane Kiffin
The focus in Alabama games tends to drift toward Kiffin. Will he get too cute with Malzahn on the other sideline? The Crimson Tide have a 55:45 run/pass ratio this season. Will Kiffin stick with that formula against the Tigers?
Stat that matters: Turnovers
Alabama has committed just five turnovers in seven Iron Bowl under Saban. The Crimson Tide have forced 13 Auburn turnovers in those games. Last year, Alabama didn’t commit a turnover but still lost. Auburn won’t be as lucky on the road.
Magic number: 19
Alabama has lost just three games in Tuscaloosa since 2010. In those losses to Auburn (2010), LSU (2011) and Texas A&M (2012), the Crimson Tide averaged just 19 points per game. If Auburn holds Alabama to less than 20 points, the Tigers could pull the upset.
In-game trend: Rushing yards
The Crimson Tide averages 240.5 rushing yards per game at home this season, and is holding opponents 63.5 rushing yards per game. Florida is the only team that averaged 4.0 yards per carry at Bryant-Denny Stadium this season.
Did you know?
Alabama has won 15 straight games at home, and the Crimson Tide is outscoring opponents 650-103 in those games.
Bottom line
It’s still the Iron Bowl, so it’s not like Auburn can’t go into Alabama and win. It will come down to the quarterbacks, and four of the last seven in this series have been decided by seven points or less. Auburn is 3-1 in those games. If it’s close, the Tigers have a chance. But the odds favor Alabama getting their revenge at home.
