College football Week 12 primer: Heisman Watch, upset picks, predictions and more

Bill Bender

College football Week 12 primer: Heisman Watch, upset picks, predictions and more image

Week 12 of the college football season is here, and we'll try to sell it.

There is only one matchup between ranked teams with No. 24 Michigan traveling to No. 5 Wisconsin at noon on Saturday. No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Clemson play FCS opponents, and No. 3 Miami also plays Virginia at noon. That leaves No. 4 Oklahoma, which plays at Kansas at 3:30 p.m. 

WEEK 12 PICKS: Against the spread | Straight up

If any of the top four teams lose, that will be a shocker. It's OK. Rivalry week and conference championship weekend are on the way, and we can't wait to see what's next. 

We're ready for the next week. Here's our Week 12 primer: 

Heisman Watch

Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield has distanced himself from the Heisman Trophy field, and that will continue against the Jayhawks on Saturday. Louisville's Lamar Jackson and Arizona's Khalil Tate also could be finalists. Is there another quarterback who could slip back into the top five? 

Yes, and it's a familiar name. USC's Sam Darnold ranks sixth in the FBS in passing yards (3,198). He's behind four Big 12 quarterbacks and Washington State's Luke Falk. The Trojans are ranked No. 11 in the College Football Playoff rankings and can still win the Pac-12. USC also plays UCLA this week, led by Josh Rosen. That quarterback matchup is getting next-level attention, and if Darnold outshines Rosen with a huge performance and leads the Trojans to the Pac-12 championship, then he could up in New York as a finalist.

MORE: Mayfield: the can't-miss prospect that everyone missed

Coach on the Spot  

Arkansas fired athletic director Jeff Long this week, which puts Bret Bielema squarely on the hot seat. The Razorbacks are 4-6 this season and need the last two just to get to a bowl game. Bielema helped stabilize the program after his arrival in 2013, but the Razorbacks are just 19-17 the last three seasons. That's not good enough, even in the tough SEC West. 

It won't get easier this week. Arkansas is 1-3 against Mississippi State under Bielema. The Razorbacks also play the next two games at home. With Florida's Jim McElwain and Tennessee's Butch Jones already out, is it safe to assume Bielema is next?

Upset alert  

Michigan in a spoiler role? Undefeated Wisconsin has the toughest matchup of the weekend against the Wolverines, which have won three straight games since losing 42-13 at Penn State on Oct. 21.

The Wolverines haven't been a frequent guest in Madison of late — Michigan is 1-3 at Camp Randall Stadium since 2001 with three straight losses.

Here's the interesting narrative at work: Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines will take way more criticism if they lose this game. As in, the usual social media storm of tweets labeling Harbaugh overrated, NFL-bound or unable to win the big game.

The Wolverines might not be able to go to Indianapolis, but they have a unique opportunity the next two weeks. They can ruin both Wisconsin and Ohio State's playoff hopes before the likely Big Ten championship game. They can build momentum with a young team heading into 2018. 

It's not a stretch to say Michigan has just as much on the line as Wisconsin and Ohio State in some ways. 

MORE: UM can break big-game rep

Over/under

Alabama plays Mercer on Saturday.  

For Alabama, it's a chance to tune up for the Iron Bowl. Criticize the scheduling maneuver all you want, but it works for Nick Saban. In 2007, Alabama lost 21-14 to Louisiana-Monroe, the most embarrassing loss of the Saban era. The following season, the Crimson Tide beat Mississippi State 32-7 before facing Auburn.

Since then, Alabama has feasted on FCS opponents. It has outscored those teams by a score of 386-51. 

YR TEAM SCORE
2009 Chattanooga 45-0
2010 Georgia State 63-7
2011 Georgia State 45-21
2012 Western Carolina 49-0
2013 Chattanooga 49-0
2014 Western Carolina 48-14
2015 Charleston Southern 56-6
2016 Chattanooga 31-3

Saban normally uses this week for a queued-up rant. This week? He talked about jeans.

Think about it … 

How much chaos is left? Here's a look at the College Football Playoff rankings the last three seasons with two sets of rankings left against the final rankings for those respective seasons.

2014

Two left: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Mississippi State 
Final: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State 

2015

Two left: Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame  
Final: Clemson, Alabama, Michigan State, Oklahoma 

2016

Two left: Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson 
Final: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Washington 

Eight of the 12 teams were decided at that point. One new team moved in 2014, two in 2015 and one in 2016. Keep that in mind over the next few weeks.

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.