Every week, SN’s Bill Bender will look at the national landscape in college football in “Around the Bender.” This week, he’ll explore two-loss chaos theory, Lamar Jackson’s numbers, the SEC East winner, the big-time program most likely to fire its coach, and, of course a little #FunBelt.
Let’s talk a little two-loss chaos.
A total of 15 Power 5 schools have two losses entering Week 11. That crowded field includes Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah, Washington State, Colorado, Auburn, Texas A&M and Florida.
MORE: SN's Midseason All-Americans
Some have been talked about more than others, like Wisconsin. Others haven’t been talked about much, like Minnesota. Yet the Gophers will have just as much say in the Big Ten race over the next three weeks. Despite playing five out of nine conference games on the road, Minnesota could have that same chance to reach Indianapolis if it can win its last three games.
Does one of these teams actually have a chance to make the College Football Playoff? Minnesota coach Tracy Claeys put it bluntly: “History tells you it’s not going to happen.
"I think there is a little bit of a disadvantage there until the committee is willing to show that they'll put in a good two-loss team,” Claeys said on the Big Ten teleconference Tuesday. “Up to this point there's no reason to believe that you're going to get into the playoff with two losses, but you'll get one of the New Year's Day bowls."
Claeys has a point. History isn’t on the two-loss team's side. But what if there’s a jumble of chaos? Can we play “What if?” just for fun?
BENDER: Embrace perfection, not debate, at this point
Here's how it would go down:
— ACC: Virginia Tech or North Carolina beats Clemson in the championship game, leaving the conference with a two-loss champion and Clemson and Louisville with at least one loss apiece.
— Big Ten: Michigan loses twice and Ohio State wins out, which sends Penn State to Indianapolis to face one of Wisconsin, Nebraska or Minnesota out of the Big Ten West. Ohio State finishes with one loss while Michigan and the Big Ten champion finish with two losses.
— Big 12: Oklahoma wins the Big 12 with two losses. Oklahoma State and Baylor or one-loss West Virginia also could win out and finish with two losses, but the Sooners remain the most viable College Football Playoff candidate given the schedule they took on in September.
— Pac-12: Washington or Washington State wins the Pac-12 North, but faces the two-loss survivor of Utah and Colorado in the Pac-12 championship game and loses.
— SEC: Florida wins out and represents the SEC East and faces Auburn, which also wins out and beats Alabama in the Iron Bowl. The winner of Auburn-Florida wins the conference, while one-loss Alabama sits and watches.
At that point, who would the College Football Playoff committee even begin to consider for the four spots? That’s not even considering that Western Michigan could go undefeated out of the MAC. How would the committee even begin to sort that mess out? How many computers would catch on fire, and what would the social media reaction be? How could you get that right? Or wrong? Or both?
MORE: Week 11 bowl projections
That’s the max-out scenario, but it really starts with one. Since the BCS championship era started in 1998, LSU was the only two-loss team to play for a national championship (2007). The playoff hasn’t featured a two-loss team yet, and that seems like a long shot unless at least a few of those conferences reach max chaos levels.
That’s a long way down the road, and it might take a lot more chaos. Yet Minnesota — like the rest of the two-loss crowd — will have its say.
"We felt like if we played well that we could get to November and be in that discussion,” Claeys said. “Nobody wins it all the time, but it makes it exciting that you still have a chance.”
Strike a pose
Lamar Jackson took control of the Heisman Trophy race with seven total TDs last week, and he can pad that total against Wake Forest on Saturday.
Jackson has 46 total TDs this season, and he could become 17th different quarterback to account for 50 total TDs in a season (Graham Harrell and Case Keenum each did that twice). Hawaii’s Colt Brennan has the record (including postseason) with 63, set in 2006.
BENDER: Louisville shouldn't need ACC title for shot at playoff
How did other Heisman Trophy winners stack up? Oregon’s Marcus Mariota (57), Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford (55), Florida’s Tim Tebow (55) and Auburn’s Cam Newton (50) all hit 50 total TDs. Jackson could top those numbers in the regular season.
At this point, it’s a race for second.
Coach on the spot
Brian Kelly. This won’t take long to explain. Despite the loss to Navy and a 3-6 season that has found new and creative ways to go from bad to worse, the Irish still have a chance at bowl eligibility with wins in their last three games. Kelly also has (had?) the backing of his boss.
"Brian will lead this team out of the tunnel opening day next year," Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick told ESPN.com on Oct. 21.
If that tune would change at all, then it could come Saturday if the Irish lose to Army in San Antonio. The Cadets have lost 14 straight to the Irish in a streak that dates to 1958. Notre Dame can’t have a “Remember the Alamo(dome)” type moment here, not with Army looking to clinch bowl eligibility for the first time since 2010.
Group of 5 focus
It’s heating up in the Sun Belt conference; the only FBS conference with three teams that are unbeaten in conference play. Appalachian State is the lone 5-0 team, and it will face Troy (4-0) this week. The Trojans face Arkansas State (4-0) the following Thursday. The problem is the Red Wolves — the defending champions — don’t play the Mountaineers in the regular season.
So the possibility for all three teams to lose a game is there, and there’s also the possibility that Arkansas State and Appalachian State could have identical 8-0 records in conference play. The Sun Belt doesn’t have a conference championship game until 2018.
It’s another reminder to always have a conference championship game.
Pick one
You know the schools suffering through rough seasons in the Power 5 that are struggling to make the postseason. Michigan State (2-7) is out, and UCLA (3-6), Oregon (3-6) and Notre Dame are on the brink of postseason extinction, and that means hot seat hot takes are coming.
Which school would be the most likely to make a change? Keep an eye on the one with the longest postseason streak. We’ve outlined Notre Dame (six years in a row) and their situation, but what about the others?
MORE: Cincinnati's Tuberville tells heckler to 'go to hell,' 'get a job'
Jim Mora’s future at UCLA (five in a row) is complicated given the Bruins were picked to win the Pac-12 South and they are 11-11 since big-time recruit Josh Rosen arrived on campus. At minimum, they face a gotta-have-it-year in 2017.
Michigan State (nine) isn’t parting ways with Mark Dantonio one year after making the playoff. No chance.
Oregon (11) might be the pick here, then, given there are rumors Nike owner Phil Knight is looking for the $10 million coach. Oregon is 12-10 since losing the first College Football Playoff championship game against Ohio State. The Ducks close the season with Stanford, Utah and Oregon State.
Those games are much more important than you think. It’s a case where reaching a bowl game actually might make a difference in opinion.
Think about it . . .
Pick the SEC East winner, please. Good luck, right?
No SEC East teams are ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings. Florida, Kentucky, Georgia and South Carolina hold the top four spots, but don’t be surprised if the fifth-place team ends up in Atlanta.
How about that team that opened with an overtime thriller, played in front of 156,990 at Bristol Motor Speedway, then had thrilling comeback wins against Florida and Georgia? The same one that lost three straight games and watched star running back Jalen Hurd announce his intention to transfer after those losses.
MORE: Jalen Hurd explains why he chose to leave Tennessee
That’s Tennessee. Yes, the same Tennessee that had all kind of drama through a 5-0 start, then lost consecutively to Texas A&M, Alabama and South Carolina. The Volunteers close with Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt. If Florida slips up — it still has South Carolina and that rescheduled game at LSU — then the Vols would get that shot — and maybe another shot at Alabama.
How much drama can you pack into one season? Would you be able to put a three-loss team in the playoff?
Yep, our head hurts, too.
