The College Football Playoff has what it really wants right now. The only question is if there is any possible way it can stay that way over the next two weeks.
No. 1 Alabama (11-0), No. 2 Ohio State (10-1), No. 3 Michigan (10-1) and No. 4 Clemson (10-1) are the four best teams in the country right now. They have been the four most-consistent teams this season, and in a perfect world they would be the four teams in the playoff.
It’s almost certainly not going to be a perfect world. One — or maybe two — of No. 5 Washington (10-1), No. 6 Wisconsin (9-2), No. 7 Penn State (9-2), No. 8 Oklahoma (9-2), No. 9 Colorado (9-2) or No. 10 Oklahoma State (9-2) will make the playoff. No. 15 Florida (8-2) or No. 16 Nebraska (9-2) could make a last-minute run. There’s your dirty dozen.
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Ask yourself this question, though. Are any of those teams really one of the best four teams?
The obvious hitch is that No. 2 and No. 3 play each other this week in what appears to be an elimination game in Columbus. The Game has big-time Big Ten East implications, and it’s most-likely a loser-it-out-type situation. That is, until you hear CFP committee chairman Kirby Hocutt talk about Ohio State in relation to the top five teams.
“I wouldn’t say they have separated themselves from the Group of Teams 2-5,” Hocutt said. “We spent a lot of time on those teams.”
That says the top five teams control their destiny — and to some extent No. 6 Wisconsin and No. 7 Penn State — control their own destiny right now. Alabama is probably in if they beat Auburn if they aren’t in already. Ditto for Clemson in the ACC and Washington in the Pac-12. If either the Tigers or the Huskies lose, however, that door could potentially still be open for Ohio State or Michigan if they close Saturday.
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Ohio State’s path is easy. Beat Michigan, and they are probably in no matter what Penn State does against Michigan State and the Big Ten West champion. Lose to Michigan, and it might come to swallowing that pride and rooting for Michigan to beat the Big Ten West champion. Hope Washington or Clemson loses again and Oklahoma wins the Big 12. The Buckeyes would have a legitimate claim to that No. 4 spot.
Michigan’s path is similar. Beat Ohio State and the Big Ten West champion, and they are in. Lose a close one at Ohio State, and it hinges too much on Michigan State beating Penn State. From there, hope the Buckeyes win the Big Ten and bank on the same chaos. Clemson or Washington loses. It would be preferable if Colorado won the Pac-12 and Oklahoma State won the Big 12. The Wolverines, who have three wins against teams in the Top 10 of the current rankings, would have a decent shot at No. 4.
Perhaps the worst thing Ohio State or Michigan to do at this point is to get to the Big Ten championship and lose. That would potentially create a four-team pileup of two-loss Big Ten teams in Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin and even Nebraska. The Big Ten West champion would go at that point, and that might open the door for the other conferences to get a team in.
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That’s the way that the best four teams in the FBS could actually make the College Football Playoff. Imagine Alabama having to go through two of Clemson, Ohio State and Michigan to win the national championship. Would we get a rematch against Clemson from last year? Or Ohio State from 2014? Or that first Nick Saban vs. Jim Harbaugh matchup? The committee can see that. The networks can dream that. It’s probably not going to happen.
For now, however, they have what they really want.
