For the second year in a row, the NCAA Tournament selection committee stepped out of the shadows – out of the conference room, actually -- a month before the bracket is revealed to give college basketball fans a glimpse of what they might see when the real deal becomes public.
And again the committee members’ work left nearly as much to discuss as the actual bracket does upon its annual release.
NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET PROJECTION: Xavier jumps into final No. 1 seed
The committee only sets up the top four seeds in each region with this. It’s not an entire bracket like Ryan Fagan does for SN, Jerry Palm does for CBS and Joe Lunardi does for ESPN.
These were the four regions:
East: 1. Villanova; 2. Duke; 3. Texas Tech; No. 4 Ohio State. Midwest: 1. Xavier; 2. Auburn; 3. Clemson; 4. Oklahoma. South: 1. Virginia; 2. Cincinnati; 3. Michigan State; 4. Tennsesee. West. 1. Purdue; 2. Kansas; 3. North Carolina; 4. Arizona.
This is what we learned from all that.
1. Virginia and Villanova would have to screw it up. Based on the accomplishments of the teams behind them and the nature of the Cavs’ and Wildcats’ resumes, it is extremely unlikely they will lose the No. 1 seeds they were fake-awarded Sunday. It’s possible not everyone who was placed in that spot in this exercise will be there on Selection Sunday, but to take out the two V teams would take a complete collapse.
2. The committee doesn’t really know who the fourth No. 1 seed is. Purdue was placed in that position after losing twice this week, which left the Boilermakers with a 5-3 record against what the NCAA now calls “Quadrant 1” opponents: Top 1-25 at home, 1-50 on neutral courts, 1-75 on the road. They’ve lost to each of their three most difficult opponents according to the RPI rankings.
BENDER: Purdue panic? Coach Matt Painter says Boilermakers better despite heart-breaking losses
Now, Purdue certainly is good enough to be one of the No. 1 seeds by Selection Sunday but needs to finish strong in four remaining regular-season games, only one of which – at home against Penn State – figures to be a significant challenge. And the Boilers could use a strong performance in the Big Ten Tournament. Remember, it’s a week before the bracket is revealed, so the championship game that’s never been factored into selection deliberations because of its late Sunday afternoon tip-off time now will be completed days before committee members gather.
3. The committee had no idea which team to put in the final spot. Oklahoma’s appearance as the last of the No. 4 seeds was stunning. The Sooners’ strength is they own six Quadrant 1 victories. But they’ll need to stop their slump to stay this high.
One team that many might have used to replaced them – 20-3 Rhode Island – only has one. The Rams are dominating the Atlantic-10 Conference; they are 12-0 with six to play. Finishing that off would help a little with the Q 1 problem; winning at St. Bonaventure would represent a second such win. Rhody might have to win both the A-10 regular season and tournament to get the seed it probably deserves.
4. Gonzaga can’t get no respect. The Zags played in last season’s NCAA Championship game. They almost won it. They have a 5-3 record against Q-1 opponents, their worst loss is a road game against No. 129 San Diego State that falls into Q-2 – and they’re excluded because the bottom of their league isn’t any good? This doesn’t make sense. The predictive metrics all place Gonzaga among the top dozen teams in Division I. This shouldn’t be about whether Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine have bad teams.
5. Kansas is playing for more than a 14th straight Big 12. If the Jayhawks can recover from their current one-game deficit and find a way to win their conference, they could add another Q-1 win to the nine they already own. This is a new thing for us, so is nine a lot? Well, only one other team has as many. So, yes.
KU still could jump up and grab a No. 1 seed, although it probably would have to win at Texas Tech on Feb. 24 to eliminate some of the competition.
6. Sorry, but Duke is in the No. 1 seed picture. The Devils are 20-5 and it’s likely no team on the top three lines has a more difficult schedule – or more delicious opportunities – down the stretch: two games against Virginia Tech, at Clemson, North Carolina at home.
MORE: Miles Bridges buzzer-beater gives Michigan State a moment to build on
7. Dominance still isn’t respected. Oh, when the committee gets handed dominance at a ridiculous level – like 32-1 Gonzaga last year or 34-0 Wichita State in 2014 – it doesn’t have much choice. But run through a relatively high-end league like the A-10, which ranks 10th of the 31 Division I conferences, and apparently that doesn’t impress the members.
Perhaps if Rhody does finish the job and is 29-3 on Selection Sunday that will change, but the committee is supposed to look at this like it is Selection Sunday. A perfect A-10 record is a heck of a thing.
8. Geography still trumps common sense. In this exercise, the committee had an ideal opportunity to balance the top two lines on the bracket. After placing the four No. 1 seeds, with the first overall team Virginia staying home in the South region at Atlanta, the committee knew it would not be just to place the top No. 2 seed, Auburn, in with the Cavaliers. The other three regionals are in Boston, Omaha and Los Angeles. None is remotely close to the Auburn campus. So in this scenario, the Tigers are going to have to hit the road.
However, instead of shipping them out to Los Angeles and placing them with the last No. 1 seed, Purdue, the committee sent the Tigers to Omaha. Why? It’s a shorter plane flight by a couple hours.
9. No one is selling tickets to a fake bracket. If the committee followed through with a plan such as this, it would blow up the theories that bracket placement is done to sell tickets. Because with these seeds and placement, sending Auburn to Omaha would mean passing up the opportunity to match the No. 3 overall (Xavier) with the No. 6 overall (Kansas). And it would mean punting on the tremendous demand KU fans would have for tickets to games at the Century Link Center. It’s hard to imagine Auburn being as big a draw there.
10. The RPI still rules the process. The quadrant system takes into account the greater difficulty of winning away from home, but it still uses the unpopular Ratings Percentage Index as the standard by which the teams are ranked. The NCAA is hoping to conceive a new metric to replace the RPI, but it hasn’t yet come up with something it views as more workable. It turned out that 14 of the top 16 teams in this week’s RPI standings were represented in these seeds.
MORE: N.C. State shows greatest weakness in NCAA Tournament selection process is strength of schedule
11. If these were the regions, the West would be BRUTAL. Let’s say you were a No. 5 seed and could take your pick; you could be placed with Purdue, Kansas, North Carolina and Arizona or with Xavier, Auburn, Clemson and Oklahoma. It’s not just the brand names; KU, UNC and Arizona have three players from SN’s 15-man mid-season All-America team. The four West teams have an average KenPom rating of 12.8; the Midwest four have an average of 17. The committee can do better.
12. It pays to be in an elite conference. Of the top 16 teams in the RPI, the only two excluded from Sunday’s seed reveal were from off-brand conferences: Rhody of the A-10 and Nevada of the Mountain West.
13. Xavier vs. Villanova will be fascinating. It’s coming Saturday, and it likely will decide the winner of the Big East regular season. It also might decide whether the league gets to occupy half of the 1-line on the NCAA bracket. Although Villanova figures to stay, it also doesn’t seem Xavier could be a top seed on the real bracket without at least one win over the Wildcats. Oh, and before the Musketeers get to that game, they have to get through Seton Hall at home.
DeCOURCY: Big Ten race could be one for the ages
14. The SEC’s balance is hurting its cause. Although it has been perhaps the most competitive conference, the SEC has suffered, frankly, from the refusal of its lesser teams to quit. The league might get a large number of tournament entrants because of its depth, but only two were seeded in this exercise.
15. Alabama is lurking. The Crimson Tide have struggled all year to be consistent. But when they’ve been good, they’ve been really good. Based on what we saw with Oklahoma, the Tide’s six Quadrant One victories would make them a serious candidate for a high seed were it not for their five Q-2 defeats. If they play more often as they did in wrecking Tennessee on Saturday, there might be a reward in the real bracket.
16. This really is a strange season. One way to be sure was mentioned directly above: two teams from the new Big East as No. 1 seeds. Also, there’s the fact that four of the 16 seeded teams haven’t been hanging around the tournament a lot lately. Auburn, Texas Tech, Clemson and Tennessee have made two NCAA Tournament appearances combined in the past five seasons, only six in this decade.
